48 Minutes of Hell

Brand New Day

2009-01-20T07:01:00.001-08:00

Dear Readers,

Today is an exciting day for several reasons. Aside from the transition of power which has captured not only the attention of the nation but also the world, there is a much smaller transition which has captured the attention of a small corner of the interwebs: 48 Minutes of Hell is moving to a new location. From this day forward we will no longer be operating at blogspot and will only be publishing material at 48minutesofhell.com.

The second and equally if not far more exciting development is that 48 Minutes of Hell is proud to announce that we are a member of a new network being launched by ESPN. Entitled the TrueHoop Network, it was pioneered by the minds of Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz and will include several of the best NBA blogs available. Check them out.

In the meantime, set a bookmark to www.48minutesofhell.com.

-Graydon Gordian and Timothy Varner

MLK Day Musing on "Spurs Culture"

2009-01-19T02:00:00.000-08:00

Back in November Gregg Popovich was busy inculcating roster newbies into Spurs culture. Roger Mason Jr. summed it up this way:

"Honestly, it's beyond expectations,'' Mason said. "The most impressive thing that I've seen Pop do is, before the election, he had us watch a video on the civil rights movement. For me, you know he has the X's and O's and that he's a great coach, but stuff like that, you don't see that.''

On Monday, with San Antonio off to an uncharacteristic 0-2 start, with back-to-back games against the Mavericks and Timberwolves looming, Popovich devoted about 45 minutes before practice -- on the eve of a historic presidential election -- to a topic that had nothing to do with his players' place and moment in time, and everything to do with it.

"It was Dr. King. It was a bunch of current events on the struggles that a lot of African-Americans went through in the civil rights movement,'' Mason said. "It completely threw me off. But when I went home and reflected on it, I was like, Man, he's a special guy.''

I'm a cynic on these days--holidays when earnest reflection is typically exceeded by token sentimentalism. I know these days are important. I'm happy we take time to mark our calendars with the most significant events of our history. But still, I'm a cynic. Hallmark Cards, the tiresome prattle of pundits, and the counterfeit care of the news anchor tear all strike a deeply disingenuous tone to me. I prefer gifts out of season to a carefully scheduled parade of gift-wrap. I'm a cynic, but I'm not completely callous. I can be touched. But the honest atheist who will not celebrate Christmas (as Christmas) earns more respect from me than the man who fakes his fa la la way through.

Whether a father realizes it or not, the sincerity of his actions creates a culture for his children to live within. If he is unnecessarily absent, the sincerity of his absence creates a culture of longing and loneliness in which the children grow. If he only pays lip service I Love Yous, children will acquaint themselves with a culture of shallow, feigned affection. This kind of thing is inescapable, and adapts to scale. It's true for parents. It's true for teachers. It's true for presidents. It's true for coaches.

"Spurs culture" is something of a nebulous expression. But whatever it is, it aims to be sincere, and it seeks sincerity from its contributors. Gregg Popovich was able to connect with Roger Mason through 45 minutes of sincere, unscripted reflection on the triumphs of the civil rights era. I'm convinced these sort of moments have played major contributing roles during the Spurs' decade of dominance. One can not quantify the power of a culturally defining moment, and, drastically scaling down in terms of significance, neither can one quantify the relationship between a certain type of culture and winning.

At Center Court with Brett Hainline

2009-01-19T01:01:00.000-08:00

Brett Hainline is the man over at Queen City Hoops, the best place on the net for Bobcats analysis. In addition to keeping close tabs on the Cats, Brett also manages a kick ass stats page--it includes Spurs stats, o ye faithful. Clamor on over. Brett and I discuss Popovich, Brown, and some other stuff below.

TV: Your recent piece entitled Defending a Bobcats Defense was tremendous. The Bobcats are on the come up since the Richardson trade, and, based on your numbers, Diaw's defense is a contributing factor. I'm guessing Larry Brown (who I assume pushed for the trade) did not run your fancy pants numbers before saying, "yeah, get me Bell and Diaw." To what extent do you believe veteran coaches and GMs can intuit the sort of stuff your data shows?

BH: I think coaches and GMs see enough basketball to tell who forces their man into tough shots, who gambles too much on defense, and who does a good job defending the pick and roll. But coaches have put Kobe on the All-Defensive teams 8 times, despite his sometimes flagging interest at the end of the court (before the Royal Order of Kobe Supporters tear me a new one – Kobe is a very good defender…when he tries – is that good enough to be among the league’s best for 8 seasons?) and that tells me that they can also buy into the hype and might be making some of their decisions on reputation. They saw his greatness – and then stopped looking hard at him (and others – he is not the only one to make it on his name). Like my post showed – stats can be used to paint a very detailed picture of a player’s influence on a game, far beyond just how someone scored against him. I think there is a limit to how much a person could intuitively track all the varied fields that paint a more complete picture of a defender’s abilities.

TV: Half a season in, what's your take on Larry Brown as the Bobcats coach?

BH: With the Bobcats seemingly headed towards merely matching last season’s win total…I am actually generally very pleased. Larry Brown has the team playing actual basketball and their defense is world’s better than last season – they currently stand 12^th in the league in defensive efficiency (and even better since the Diaw trade), after finishing last year at 21^st. The Bobcats are actually approaching being good at something. The offense is still a work in progress, but after a lot of early season struggling with more plays and complexity than they were accustomed, the Cats are making offensive progress. Overall, I can not complain (except about playing Juwan Howard over Ryan Hollins and Alexis Ajinca--the Cats are very unlikely to make the playoffs so why not give the kids a chance?).

TV: For some reason, the Popovich-Brown friendship fascinates me. How would you compare the two coaches, in light of one another?

BH: Stylistically, they seem very similar – their teams play old-school basketball (well, sort-of, depending on the era, old school was actually pretty up-tempo, but the style they play seems old-school), with a focus on defense and a slow pace. But…Pop – 13 seasons, 1 team. Larry Brown – 29 years (including ABA), 10 teams. In real world terms, one is the monogamous, long-married husband, the other a confirmed bachelor, moving from passing fancy to passing fancy. Do they secretly envy each other? What do they have in common to form their friendship around? I can only assume that, just like in real life, the answer is probably basketball.

TV: Do you think the Cats are stuck with Adam Morrison?

BH: Like an unwanted leg. Except I kind of want Adam around, just in case he winds up proving everyone wrong. I’d hate to see him moved elsewhere only to become a solid contributor (anything more seems like ridiculous fantasy at this point). Aside from being used in a trade to make salaries match, I do not see the Bobcats being able to trade him. After a decent start to the season, he has struggled mightily and probably forced the Bobcats into holding onto him for next year (which they already picked up, for the low, low sum of only $5 million – yay! Sigh.).

Brett and I exchanged questions this time around, so visit Queen City Hoops for my answers to a set of Spurs questions. And his game previews are not too shabby, either.

The Trade Season Tilt-A-Whirl: Twirl No. 1

2009-01-19T00:59:00.000-08:00

ESPN's Daily Dime has Spurs Nation talking about San Antonio's alleged interest in Nick Collison. Nick Collison? Really?

Positives

excellent rebound rate
good defender
high FG%

Negatives

at what price?
compromises the 2010 Cap Strategy

One member of a Spurs message board fired up The Trade Machine and discovered that a salary dump of Vaughn, Oberto, and Udoka for Collison satisfies the CBA. Even if the Spurs included a 2009 second round draft pick(s) into the equation, one wonders if Presti would give up Collison for so little talent in return? The big variable here is how much of Fabricio Oberto's 2009/10 contract is guaranteed. The usual sites disagree, but some indicate that next season's contract is only partially guaranteed. If that is the case, Presti could clear 18 million or more (depending on Oberto's contract) from his future cap--he would head into next summer with a payroll somewhere in the low to mid-30s.

Right now, it looks as if only Memphis is likely to be in the same cap space neighborhood as OKC. But how much money is Michael Heisley willing to spend in a bad economy? In other words, would Sam Presti want cash to spend in a buyer's market? And in a year when the competition for talent is scarce? More specifically, does Presti want to add a Carlos Boozer or David Lee--with money enough left for, say, Zaza Pachulia--to his core of Durant, Green and Westbrook? This might be the perfect storm of opportunity for the ambitious young GM. Turning Nick Collison into Carlos Boozer would be a neat party trick.

On the court Collison is an ideal fit for San Antonio, but is he worth jeopardizing their 2010 cap space? I'm not sure. Perhaps, there is a different way to ask the question. Are the Spurs playing for championships now or later? Collison is not a bit player. His presence would immediately shore up the frontline.

It's the Personnel, Pop

2009-01-18T22:50:00.000-08:00

Jeff McDonald has turned in a should-read article replete with quotes from Coach Popovich about the Spurs lackluster defense. This is typical Popovich banter, always pre-packaged and ready for arrival in mid-January. But somehow, this season, Pop's analysis strikes me as more than a motivational ploy.

We've recently written that the Spurs are not as good as their record. Popovich seems to agree: “The only thing that's saving us is that everybody else is beating everybody else up, so our record looks basically as good as anybody else's,” Popovich said. “It's fool's gold, as far as I'm concerned.”

According to McDonald, the first game stat Pop looks at is field goal percentage defense. Basketbawful wrote about this area of concern a couple weeks back, saying:

This kind of shocked me, but the Spurs are only 21st in the league in field goal percentage defense (45.7), which is barely better than the Heat (45.8) and Warriors (also 45.8). The fact that they're one of the best teams in PPG allowed but one of the worst teams in FGP allowed tells you pretty much all you need to know about the pace of their games.

It's hard to argue with the evidence, especially if you've watched any games of late. The 76ers might the toughest match up in the league for San Antonio. Their athletic 3s and 4s recently obliterated the Spurs defense, and notably Bruce Bowen. Young and Iguodala cruised to 27 and 21 points, respectively. Meanwhile, the laterally-challenged Bowen and Finley registered plus/minuses of -13 and -26. Philly scored at will.

The painful truth is that the Spurs have hard-to-overcome personnel issues--not insurmountable, but terribly problematic. The Spurs will struggle to defend athletic wings. Bowen's decline causes one to wonder how effectively the Spurs will successfully limit the offense of playoff go to scorers, such as Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony. In their recent game against the Lakers, Pop only gave Bowen 6 minutes of playing time (although, truth be told, I suspect Bowen was given the short hook because of offensive, not defensive, limitations). As I noted after the game:

The Spurs played last night's game with basically one swing player: Michael Finley. Ime Udoka didn't make it off the bench and Bruce Bowen logged a mere 6 minutes. The Spurs used a trio of Hill, Mason, Ginobili at one point. In the '08 Western Conference Finals, Kobe Bryant averaged 29.2 points on 53% shooting. Nothing had changed last night. It looks as if Popovich has decided that Bowen can't slow Bryant, so he might as well put his team in a better position to trade baskets.

Coincidentally, might this offer a partial account for Pop's frequent forays into small ball?

When the Spurs play Kurt Thomas and Tim Duncan together, they have a front court whose foot speed is closer to slow and plodding than quick and nimble. This creates difficulties against 4s and 5s that can score by facing the basket and putting the ball on the floor. This is obviously qualified by the fact that Thomas and Duncan are on most short-lists of good defensive big men. It's no surprise then that they are an effective tandem against certain, if not most, line ups. This criticism is only relative to quick, athletic frontcourters. Thomas and Duncan can't stick with the long speedsters. Pop doesn't have a body on his bench to play alongside Duncan that is particularly suited to defend athletic, turn and face bigs. Austin Croshere is not the solution to this problem, no matter how much he potentially helps elsewhere.

Another issue along the frontline, one that certainly contributes to an opponent's field goal percentage, is the Spurs' lack of a second shot blocker. Kurt Thomas, again, is a good defender, but he's not exactly the Sultan of Swat. Duncan hasn't played alongside a great shot-altering center since David Robinson, with Rasho Nesterovic checking in as the closest qualifier. The Spurs defense, as most readers of this site know, attempts to force perimeter players baseline and funnel them into the clutches of its shot blockers. Although it's not an absolute necessity, the Spurs D is better outfitted with twin towers who can spike the set of opposing penetration.

This brings us back to McDonald's sobering piece:

“We suck on ‘D,'” Popovich said, with the “D” standing for defense.

That was the entire text of Popovich's State of the Team address, as succinct as it was devastating. All follow-up questions fishing for a silver lining were quickly rebuffed.

Do you mean all game long, or just in fourth quarters?

“No, pretty much throughout,” Popovich said. “Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way.”

Surely there is a way to fix this problem, some sliver of hope on the horizon?

“I don't know if I have an answer to that,” Popovich said. “If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad.”

The Spurs can always seek to address their personnel issues through trades or free agent acquisitions, except that they are extremely short-handed on assets and teams are not looking to give away the sort of player(s) the Spurs need in return. Even if the Spurs were able to land a player who has the physical wherewithal to stand in the gap, there is no certainty he could learn the system quickly enough to boost the Spurs back into the realm of the elite. These defensive issues pose the most critical challenge to the 2008/9 championship run. Color me anxious.

Match-Up of the Night: The Curse of Graydon vs. Poor Scheduling

2009-01-17T11:42:00.001-08:00

Although I have only lived in Chicago for a little over a year, I am almost legendary amongst Chicago sports fans. For you see I have attended 8 Chicago sporting events and never once has the home town team won. Cubs, Bears, Bulls, doesn't matter. If I am present they lose. For the most part this is frustrating because I like Chicago sports teams and wish them the best. But one day a year this is a sure fire way to ensure I fall asleep with a smile on my face: The day the Spurs come town.

Alas, I am not in Chicago. I am in Washington D.C. So I am not only missing the game (which is frustrating enough in its own right), but there is now the slightest chance we might lose when originally there was no shot whatsoever at a Bulls victory. Poor scheduling on my part (really, poor scheduling on whoever thought the inauguration should be in January. It's the east coast people. Can't we do this in May?).

Anyways, in their first meeting this season an under-staffed Spurs squad (Parker was still out) managed to top the Bulls 98-88. I characterized that contest as a chance to compare Hill and Rose and despite whatever media hype may surround the first round pick, Hill had the better game. But Rose has continued to improve over the season while Hill's momentum has slowed a bit. The Bulls are also coming off of a particularly impressive performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who I happen to believe are the best team in the NBA. The Spurs, on the other hand, let their post-Laker momentum slip a bit as they got thoroughly handled by a surging Sixers squad. The game starts at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central.

Match-Up of the Night: Consistent Perimeter Shooting vs. Hot Perimeter Shooting

2009-01-16T12:20:00.001-08:00

I've never understood why the Spurs are labeled as a boring team. Ok, scratch that. I understand that people find our slow pace of play and defensive-minded style to be boring. But the spurs let it fly from the perimeter at an alarming rate and however worrying it may be from the perspective of offensive efficiency, I happen to find barrages of three pointers to be exciting. Which is why I am excited for this evening's contest with the 76ers.

Traditionally Philly doesn't take a lot of outside shots (for the majority of the season they have had the fewest 3-point attempts of any team). But under new coach Tony DiLeo the Sixers have started to heat up from from beyond the arc:

The Sixers are near the bottom of the NBA in 3-point shooting (32.2 percent), but they've connected on 34 of 70 attempts (48.6) during their [5 game] winning streak.

The Spurs, on the other hand, have lived and died by the long ball for a good season or two now. A look up and down the roster will reveal a whole bevy of players who love nothing more than making it rain from 24 feet away from the basket. But, unlike the Sixers, we do so at an impressively consistent rate. Bonner and Mason are amongst the top three in the league in 3-point percentage (1st and 3rd, respectively). And Ginobili, Bowen, Finley, and even Udoka can hit outside shots at a decent rate. Although the average fan may not think of Spurs-Sixers as an exciting match-up, there's a good reason to believe these two squads may provide us with a bit of fireworks this evening.

Every Team Needs Two Matt Bonners

2009-01-16T09:36:00.000-08:00

The Spurs have signed Austin Croshere to a 10-Day contract. Since it's only a 10-Day at this point, I'll simply offer a brief, off the cuff assessment.

Just before learning of the signing, I posted about the Spurs fascination with small ball. I encourage you to read that post, and insert "Croshere" where necessary. Austin Croshere brings 3 point offense and spacing to the table, and could be helpful against the Lakers.

Croshere has a wealth of experience. He's played in a number of playoff games, including one trip to the NBA Finals. That counts for more than a consolation prize to me. Croshere is also better than Matt Bonner at putting the ball on the floor after a ball fake. That doesn't say much, I know. But it is something. I think the two bigs could play together for short stints, as odd as that would seem. Austin Croshere is better than Anthony Tolliver, so in that limited sense the Spurs have improved themselves.

The downside of this is that Spurs are now tapped-out in terms of roster space, with lingering needs for rebounding/interior defense and wing scoring. If Croshere works out, I have to imagine the Spurs plan to address at least one of those issues through a trade. It's also possible they buy out Jacque Vaughn to create a roster space, though doubtful.

We'll know more in 20 days (Croshere will likely receive two 10-Days from San Antonio before they make a decision on him). For now, it's a smart look and see 10 Day for a veteran who could, theoretically, fit the system at a thin position.

The Small Ball Spurs

2009-01-16T06:00:00.000-08:00

Times have changed. If pressed, Tim Duncan will now admit to being the San Antonio Spurs starting center. Gregg Popovich's team is shape-shifting, with few observers taking notice. Tim Duncan as center is part of a broader, albeit subtle, change. The Spurs frequently moonlight as a small ball team.

Gregg Popovich has always been willing to mix in small ball line ups if the action on the floor called for it. But this season, his willingness to play small has morphed into a underlying commitment; small ball is part of a larger strategy, which I'll turn to in a moment.

The superficial evidence of the Spurs playing small is easy enough to spot. Michael Finley, who is really a shooting guard, plays small forward. When Ime Udoka plays, he's often used as a small ball 4. The Spurs most effective 5-man units this season are small ballish. Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, and Duncan are the most frequent combination, boasting a win% of 68.7. Hill, Mason, Finley, Bonner, and Duncan have a gaudy win% of 80. Both of these line ups feature 4 out and 1 in---in other words, 4 perimeter players and a big. The Spurs' trot out 4 guard floor combinations like Parker, Mason, Ginobili, Finley and Duncan most games for at least a short spurt. Michael Finley does not strike me as a small ball 4, but that hasn't stopped Pop.

Jeff McDonald recently reported these words in relation to the Warriors-Spurs early December contest:

Ninety minutes before his team ran headfirst into a silver and black buzz saw Saturday night, Golden State coach Don Nelson stood on the AT&T Court and accused his good friend and former assistant Gregg Popovich of thievery.

Nelson had just finished watching film of Popovich's Spurs team, running offensive schemes that looked more than vaguely familiar.

“A lot of it he stole from me,” Nelson said with a wink...
...Apprised of the Xs and Os robbery charges Nelson had levied against him pregame, Popovich pled no contest.

“I would imagine he's probably right,” Popovich said. “It's all either his play, or a variation.”

Using Nelson's own medicine against him, the Spurs (11-8) set a season scoring high for a regulation game, surpassed only by a 129-125 double-overtime victory at Minnesota.

Even when the Spurs play 4 out, 1 in with Duncan, there is no guarantee he'll function on the low block. As I wrote a couple weeks back, Tim Duncan is more of a jump shooter this season than ever before. The evidence is indisputable. The amount of time he spends stroking his mid-range game will decline some in the playoffs, where he's sure to spend lots of time on the low block. Nevertheless, Duncan is something of a face and shoot 5 this season.

The Spurs also seem committed to having at least two perimeter bigs on their roster. In past seasons, this meant Horry and Bonner. This year, for a time at least, it meant Bonner and Tolliver. Now rumors suggest that a player like Austin Croshere could be brought in to replace Anthony Tolliver. In other words, more shooting.

The other small ball indicator is the Spurs love affair with the 3 pointer. They rank 5th in 3 point attempts and they shoot the league's best percentage.

Some of this is circumstantial, but I'm convinced Popovich committed himself to more small ball over the offseason. If you recall, the Spurs drafted Hill, signed Mason, and flirted with free agents Jannero Pargo and Salim Stoudamire. 3 out of 4 of those players are 3 point aces, and they're all perimeter players.

Am I suggesting the Spurs are the new Golden State Warriors. Not at all. But it's obvious that one of Pop's strategies this season is to open up the offense and score a little more. As you might expect, team scoring and pace are slightly higher than last season. As mentioned above, the team brought in multiple scoring options for their bench. Put differently, Hill replaced Vaughn, Mason replaced Barry, Finley replaced Bowen, and Bonner replaced Oberto/Horry. In every case, the Spurs get more scoring.

The Spurs will always be a half-court team. When it matters the offense will run through Duncan. They play inside, out. All of that remains true. My point is simply to say that Popovich has committed to a distinct small ball wrinkle in this year's offense. And as Graydon lucidly described in yesterday's Notebook, there is a telos to all this. But what?

I'll call our readers back to a post I wrote earlier this season, The Rise of the Red Rocket. Quoting myself quoting Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold quoting Jones on the NBA (got that?):

The Kings are a bad match up for the Lakers because their centers play a perimeter game that draws Bynum and Gasol out to the three point line and opens up the lane for drives and causes the Lakers defense to break down leading to easy lay ups or open three pointers. Same thing happened against the Pacers and their perimeter oriented bigs and Detroit and Rasheed’s three point shooting from the center position. Teams with quick penetrating guards and perimeter oriented bigs will continue to be a problem for the Lakers as Farmar and Fisher will never be ball stopping guards, so if Bynum and/or Pau are out on the perimeter those guards are going to have a field day and just chop up the Lakers on defense. Against teams like the Pacers and Kings the Lakers are usually able to make up for this match up issue by outscoring them. But when the Lakers shots aren’t falling, you’re going to have issues like this.

And quoting myself, once again:

The Spurs are quick to respect all their opponents, but I suspect that their respect for the current Lakers squad runs a little higher. A great indicator of this respect might be found in the presence of not one but two perimeter centers on tap. It sounds pompous, but in San Antonio everything is geared toward May and June.

Why more small ball? Yes, I think it has everything to do with the Lakers. That, and Popovich is keeping a bower back until the games start to count. Right now, he's priming the engine of his 3 and 4 guards machine. The low post machine is resting in the garage.

Update: Minutes after posting this, the good bots at Google Alerts informed me that Austin Croshere has signed a 10 Day contract with San Antonio....

At Center Court with Jordan Sams

2009-01-15T19:04:00.000-08:00

Tonight's game against the 76ers scares me a little---the 76ers are one of the most athletic teams in the league, which, of course, gives the greyheaded Spurs fits. Nevertheless, I press on. Jordan Sams (JSams) of Liberty Ballers holds my hand through a few Philly questions.

TV: Andre Iguodala is a difficult cover. According to 82games, his adjusted plus/minus is one of the best in the league. Still I see him as a borderline All-Star talent. What are the most salient weaknesses of his game? What must he do to take it to the next level?

JS: His biggest weaknesses are his jumpshot, the inability to perform in the clutch and the desire to make SportsCenter's Top 10 every time he touches the ball. The jumpshot has been falling as of late, but it's still too inconsistent to be considered good, or even average. He always comes up lame in the clutch, whether it be a missed shot or a stupid turnover, but in my opinion that's not his fault, because he's not the player who should have the ball in clutch situations. That's the coaches fault. And the whole "Top 10" comment was because he often attempts spectacular passes, shots or dunks when a simple one would get the job done, and as you can imagine, I wouldn't be mentioning this if he didn't miss or turn it over every time he tries something spectacular.

To take it to the next level he needs to improve his jumpshot. That's the only true basketball skill he needs a lot of work on.

If he ever plays with someone like Kobe, LeBron or legitimate superstar, he can flourish as the second banana. Think a Scottie Pippen-type player if he ever reaches his full potential.

TV: How does the back half of the season set up for Philly? Can they make a push?

JS: Without even looking at the schedule, I will personally guarantee they make the playoffs in the East. They can be anywhere from the 4-8 seed, but they'll make the playoffs. I don't know what they'll do when they get there; we'll have to wait and see what they look like when Brand returns.

TV: Looking at your current roster, I don't see a top tier superstar. Do you think Brand will recover form and become that player? If not, Philly is in a difficult position of having ideal "B" and "C" players without a lead dog. Should they package some of their talent for that kind of player?

JS: No, I don't think Brand can be that player. I didn't see anything from him before he got hurt to lead me to believe he'd be a superstar for us. Given, he was playing under the horrible coaching of Maurice Cheeks, that might change when he returns, but I doubt it.

Thad's our best chance of having a superstar. He's going to take at least a couple years to develop though.

And no, they shouldn't trade any of their core players. They'll be a force if Brand returns and DiLeo is able to integrate him into the offense. The roster move they must make is to add shooters. Moving Green and/or Dalembert for shooters is the best case scenario.

TV: Related to the third question, as the trade deadline approaches, do you expect the 76ers to deal Andre Miller?

JS: I don't see it happening unless they're completely out of it in the east, which I don't see happening either. The question is will he be extended, or will they let him walk in the summer?

Check in at Liberty Ballers for a proper game preview. It seems like they are recovering well from the last 76ers-Spurs contest.

The Notebook: Breathing Easy

2009-01-15T14:13:00.000-08:00

As a Spurs fan, it is somewhat heretical to act as if anything other than the postseason has any substantive value. The regular season exists so that the postseason may, and the postseason exists so that a champion may be crowned. Of all franchises, few are as unwaveringly teleological as San Antonio.

And then a game like last night’s contest against the Los Angeles Lakers comes along. In May the game will be a footnote, a 5 second slice on an introductory highlight reel. Jagged images of Kobe’s dagger and elephantiasis, quickly juxtaposed alongside Mason’s improbable three-point play and outstretched tongue. For the average NBA fan, the game will be remembered for its final 12 seconds if remembered at all. But that isn’t how I will remember it. I’m going to remember last night’s game as the culmination of a slow and steady cathartic process that began in the waning days of the 2007-08 postseason.

There was a point during last season’s playoff run that I grew tired. I felt stressed and angry. Here, on the pages of 48 Minutes of Hell, I repeatedly exploded about missed foul calls and media bias. It was only when the Spurs finally lost that I found myself able to breathe easy; able to sit back and just enjoy the game of basketball. Since the conclusion of the 2008 Western Conference Finals I have been searching for how to make that feeling permanent. I have been searching for temperance. I have been trying to grab hold of a fanhood that has no telos. For some this is not a difficult journey, but for a Spurs fan it is nothing less than a rejection of the principles upon which our belief system is founded.

My experience of last night’s game was the fruit of my labor. A sign that the regular season is just as powerful a vehicle of drama and joy as any postseason struggle. It is a rivalry game, maybe even the rivalry game, but at this point is any Lakers-Spurs match-up really about bragging rights? 

I won’t remember this game because we defeated a hated rival. I won’t remember this game because in front of a skeptical nation we made a statement. I won’t remember this game because I, for the first time all season, believe a fifth ring is possible. I’ll remember this game because I learned to forget all that and just let the game speak.
___

In the closing moments of the 3rd quarter Trevor Ariza nailed a three-pointer in the corner, muting the air of control the Spurs had cast over the game. The ball was quickly inbounded to Manu Ginobili, who raced up the floor with 4.5 seconds left. Dodging in and out of purples bodies, his pinball momentum made the court seem as if it was on a slight incline. With the seconds ticking away ever more quickly, he dribbled behind his back and hoisted a 40 foot shot into the air. As the buzzer sounded sharply, the backboard glowed softly and the net nervously flexed as it welcomed an unexpected visitor, the crowd uproariously reclaimed the air of control.
___

In my head it was crystal clear. I didn’t even need to watch to know the outcome. I saw him receive the pass and crouch into the triple threat position. Mason played him just a tad far off, betraying a concern for the drive that, although not unfounded, would prove near fatal. The camera angle showed the back of his head but I imagined his eyes. When many people look into the eyes of Kobe they see hardened focus but I see something very different. Or at least I pretend I see something different. I pretend I see thousands of little equations scrolling by, an inescapable web of calculus.

And then there is that moment. That startlingly static moments where Kobe allows his competitors to see their fate. In some ways he comes off as hardened, “cold-blooded” if you will. But in some ways he is surprisingly open. He is so honest about his intentions. And then, with a disorienting combination of suddenness and inevitability, his knees erupt, his arms compress and extend, and you don’t need to look anymore because you know how this scene always ends.
___

His shot is so elegant. He is the essence of a pure shooter. His feet are square. His hands are high. His body and the floor form a perfect right angle. He can stop on a dime and still go straight up. And even when being fouled, which obviously limits his ability to maintain such idyllic physical composition, the mangled forms of his shot shine through. You see each little puzzle piece working tirelessly to make sure the shot remains on target. Some might call it “focus” but I think it comes from something slightly different. It radiates from his confidence. Not just confidence. Charisma. Roger Mason Jr.'s late game heroics are like an unexpected baptism. Without warning You are awash in freezing river water and when you open your eyes you have the creeping sensation that what didn’t used to be possible now is.

Typical Spurs-Lakers Stuff: Random Thoughts

2009-01-15T06:01:00.000-08:00

It's always nice to wake up and read a Johnny Ludden Spurs column. Last night's Lakers-Spurs game was a classic, and the best NBA game this season. Graydon will be along later this afternoon with a proper Notebook, but for the time being he's on a jet plane heading east. In the meantime, I'm here to offer up a delectable assortment of game recap donuts and bagels. Let their sugary sweet bouquet waft through those little hairs in your nose, won't you?

It's doubtful he'd admit it, but judging by his body language, scorching first half, and buzzer beating 3rd quarter triple, I suspect Ginobili earmarked last night's game as the end of his rehab stint. Welcome back, Manu. We missed you.

Other than RMJ's go ahead shot in the 4th, the play of the game goes to Popovich. At about the 4:30 mark in the 4th, the Lakers cut the lead to 2. Pop called a timeout and drew up a play that gave Ginobili the ball on the inbound, two high screens, and a dribble drive down the left side of the lane. It resulted in an unconverted And-1. It was a simple play, but it allowed the Spurs to stem the tide of a Lakers run that threatened to up end the game. As usual, Popovich's in-game adjustments and work in the timeout were masterful.

The Spurs played last night's game with basically one swing player: Michael Finley. Ime Udoka didn't make it off the bench and Bruce Bowen logged a mere 6 minutes. The Spurs used a trio of Hill, Mason, Ginobili at one point. In the '08 Western Conference Finals, Kobe Bryant averaged 29.2 points on 53% shooting. Nothing had changed last night. It looks as if Popovich has decided that Bowen can't slow Bryant, so he might as well put his team in a better position to trade baskets. In my season preview, I noted that the Spurs needed another rotation big and a wing who could score. That remains the case. Great win, but their roster needs attention.

Mason has marbles too. After hitting a daggers three that would have been the game winning play, Bryant drew attention to the fact that he had elephantitic testes. Mason returned the favor, hitting his third game winning shot of the season. Swing low sweet chariot. Do you think Kobe felt emasculated?

The Lakers are an incredible 7-2 on the back half of back to backs this season. Last night's game was played with a depleted bench on the heels of a tough game in Houston. Splitting the Rockets-Spurs with a short bench is still impressive. Spurs fans should temper their morning after enthusiasm.

Of regular season contests, Popovich vs. Jackson now stands at 18-17, in favor of Pop. Phil Jackson is now 24-26 lifetime against the Spurs. How many teams does he have a losing record against? Two. The Spurs and Bobcats. Yet, he's 4 out of 5 in postseason series against San Antonio. Is there any doubt that these two coaches are in a class of their own? Rarely are games worth watching simply to observe the coaching. But in this case, I'd watch if these two were coaching little league teams against one another.

George Hill. He's good. But he's still a rookie with a sometimes sloppy handle. He had two way preventable turnovers last night that sullied what was an otherwise remarkable performance in his first "felt like the playoffs" game. If he plays as well in the postseason, the Spurs will roll right back into the Western Conference Finals.

Only 3 bigs? Pop gave Oberto a DNP-CD, limiting his rotation to Duncan, Bonner, and Thomas. My point here echoes the third bullet in this list: the Spurs roster needs tweaking. Ian Mahinmi's odd ankle injury and the waiving of Anthony Tolliver raise many more questions than answers for the Spurs frontline. Because of his relationship with Ginobili, I've always assumed that Oberto was quasi-untradable. I'm beginning to wonder. His contract is only partially guaranteed for next season, which might make him a prime trade and buy out candidate in a salary dump for another team. I'm a little stymied that the Spurs still haven't signed a D-League try out to replace Anthony Tolliver. There is a puzzle piece on the table that doesn't fit. In short, the Spurs frontcourt is not yet set. Update: Robert Horry was cheering for the Spurs last night with a view from R.C. Buford's press box. We're not reading too much into this, but it's on the radar. We're hoping it falls off the radar too.

This is the Spurs first victory of the season against an elite opponent. On the season, 7 victories are by 3 points or less, four of which were on final shots. The Spurs have won a remarkable three games by way of double overtime. I'm not sure if that's championship moxie or a sign of decline.

Playing the positive spin on the previous bullet, this team is all kinds of clutch. Just from a personnel standpoint, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Mason, and even Finely are good candidates for last second heroics. That has to be tough on opposing coaches.

The front office really did a fine job last offseason. This is the stuff of a future post, but the Hill selection and Mason Jr. are looking like smart plays. Kudos. Update: Marc Stein is all over this angle.

The final play: Ariza missed the shot. The traveling call controversy is straining at gnats. And to further extinguish the flames of that silly little fire, Duncan grabbed the board. Had Ariza made the shot and received a whistle for traveling, I'd give Lakers fans a greater hearing. Otherwise, let's not pretend it was something it's not.

Gagging the Tired Old Nag

2009-01-15T06:00:00.000-08:00

Last night's Lakers game call featured a chart (with commentary) on the Spurs collective age. You know, the usual "window is closing because they're long in the tooth" shtick. There must be a broadcaster Stuff Mart where this sentiment is sold as the candy of choice in the check out lanes. In honor of the gazillioneth time someone has said this since October, I wanted to re-run this post from a couple weeks ago. The championship numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect playoff rosters.

The average age of the last five NBA Champions is 28.9.

Boston: 28.7
Spurs: 30.3
Heat: 29.1
Spurs: 29
Pistons: 27.5

The average age of the Spurs current roster is 29.6.

Memo to the basketball world: find yourself a new bogeyman. You're getting old.

Reflections on a Rival: The Los Angeles Lakers

2009-01-14T10:53:00.000-08:00

This is the first edition of a new feature here at 48 Minutes of Hell entitled "Reflections on a Rival." Some teams deserve more than a discussion of a single match-up. The Lakers are one of those teams.

During the last decade the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most successful franchises in all of professional sports. 4 Championships. A playoff appearance every year since the 97-98 season. No first round exits during that stretch. It is a legacy of dominance that most fans dream of and few have the pleasure of experiencing. And yet these glorious years have not come without their fair share of pain. And more often than not, that pain has been caused by the boys in purple and gold.

In the 5 meetings between Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson in the post-season, Popovich has only managed to walk away with a single series victory. Although the Lakers have failed to finish the job as often as the Spurs (earning only 3 rings over the same decade long stretch despite 5 trips to the finals), they are the only franchise whose achievements even compare. They are without a doubt our arch-enemy.

In the regular season, our fortunes have been more evenly matched. During Popovich's and Jackson's joint tenures, SA and LA have evenly split the 34 regular season games they have played against one another. This is a pretty uncommon statistic for the Spurs: I can assure you no other franchise has a better postseason than regular season record against us.

There are any number of key match-ups this evening, so I'll go through them one-by-one:

Parker vs. Fisher

Derek Fisher is a good defender. Both physical and crafty, he can keep up with men several years younger than him (for instance, Fisher has drawn 32 offensive fouls this season, the most of any NBA player. He led the league last year with 55). The official scouting report on the Parker-Fisher match-up is that Fisher, at age 34, cannot keep up with Parker's quickness. But in all honesty, Fisher did a decent job combating the elusive frenchman during last season's playoff series.

The key difference in this game compared to the '08 Western Conference Finals will be Parker's improved jump shot. He is nailing his mid-range looks at a much higher rate than last season and that is making him considerably more difficult to defend. If Fisher can no longer play off him or confidently go under the pick to prevent the dribble-drive, I am not sure he will be able to prevent penetration as successfully (or even funnel Parker into the waiting arms of LA's shot blockers).

Lamar Odom vs. Ime Udoka

Udoka hasn't seen the minutes this year that he was getting at the end of last season and rightfully so: His play has fallen off a tad. But he may see a decent amount of time this evening as no Spur matches up as well against Lamar Odom as Udoka. He has the size to bang with Lamar on the block. He has the quickness to pursue him to the perimeter. No other Spur has the ability to handle both these assignments. I can't be positive this is the decision Popovich will make, but I strongly believe it is the right one.

Thomas/Bonner/Oberto vs. Bynum/Gasol

The frontcourt combination of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol is the full-throated manifestation of the Spurs' worst fears. Tim and I have talked extensively about our concerns regarding our frontcourt depth and the Lakers big men are exactly the reason why. In recent weeks we've increasingly noted the Spurs' struggles on the glass and there is no reason to expect that to improve in anyway this evening.

I would say "expect Thomas to see some solid minutes," but I'm not positive that will be Popovich's approach. Instead of going head-to-head with Bynum and Gasol, Pop may try to subvert their size by playing surprisingly small lineups and unashamedly gambling our chances at victory on the rate our 3-pointers are falling. In all honesty, I am not sure I have a better prescription. We have never faced the two of them together. During the recap I'll be sure to include extended thoughts on how we chose to approach this situation.

Kobe Bryant

When you figure out how to stop Kobe Bryant, you give me a call.

Closing Thoughts

Tonight is going to be a tough game. The Lakers are the only team in the Western Conference that is definitively better than the Spurs and they create match-up problems for us all over the floor. But despite that fact this remains a very winnable game. Relax and enjoy it. One day, many years from now, we will all look back and pine for the days when players like Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan roamed the courts of Los Angeles and San Antonio. Win or lose, these are two great teams and it has been a pleasure to watch them do battle all these years. The game starts at 9 Eastern/8 Central on ESPN.

At Center Court with Forum Blue and Gold

2009-01-14T06:39:00.000-08:00

Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold is busy these days. His most recent obsession is the low top. He spends most of his free time worrying about its ability to protect the ankle from injury. He wants to know, what crazed lunatic suggested that Kobe Bryant wear a sneaker that will result in at least one hobbled-ankle, Willis Reed-like Kobe Bryant memory? Did his wife put him up to it? Is this some crazy Phil Jackson voodoo? Is this Phil Knight's mad scientist gone senile moment? We'll have to wait and see. We don't have to wait for Kurt, however. His answers to our questions are ready to roll.

TV: The Lakers are a cut above the rest of the Western Conference. Even with injuries, they appear to be on track for the Finals. Setting aside the obvious answer--an injury to one of their core players--what is the single biggest risk/circumstance that would prevent this from happening?

FBG: It's hard to leave out injuries for fans — how much better would the Spurs have been last playoffs with a healthy Manu?

But to be true to your question and think outside injuries, I still think there are some very good teams in the West besides the Lakers. I think that starts with the Spurs, you guys have added some youth and depth that was lacking last year (we Laker fans all thought Hill would fall deep into the second round and at our blog we talked a lot about getting him). I really think right now the Spurs are second best in the West, with New Orleans right there as well, and Denver certainly is a more mature team with Billups at the helm.

I will add, the one team that scares me if they could ever get healthy and get their heads on right is Houston. On paper, that team could be dynamite, but the odds of them pulling it all together seem slim, don't they? One in 20, maybe? But still, if they do…

All that said, right now I think your basic premise is correct — all things being equal, I'm not sure there's a team in the West that can knock off the Lakers this year. But, things are never always equal.

TV: It seems to me that Kobe Bryant is phasing into his late MJ with the Bulls period. That is, he's gone from being unstoppably explosive to unstoppably calculated. You remember, I'm sure, that Jordan's post and fade game became signature and the highlight reel dunks began to diminish in the mid 90s. Do you agree that Kobe is heading in this direction, and, if so, what do see becoming the staple move of his arsenal?

FBG: That is a very insightful theory. And certainly, Kobe does not explode to the rim quite like he used to — that said he'll still exploit the mismatch and blow by people to the hole for dunks. But now you see a lot more jumpers, and he can hit those from anywhere on the floor. I think he has three fallback moves to create space. The first is the jab step, he loves to throw that and because you still have to respect his ability to drive that works well. The second is the way head fake, he throws that all the time and it's very effective. He also will draw the foul with the arm swing-through — he has the ball on one side of his body and shows it to the defender by swinging it in front of him and if you lean in he goes up and draws the contact. He gets to the line as well as ever.

TV: Who concerns you more, the Celtics or the Cavs?

FBG: The Cavs. First and foremost — have you seen LeBron lately. Not only is he MVP, he is looking like the best player since MJ. In a seven game series he could win at least two just because he goes off. Everyone talks about the Celtics defense, but the Cavs play pretty good defense, too. And they match up well with the Lakers. They have a good point guard, something we don't defend well. And they have bigs that can step away from the basket a little and hit a jumper, which messes with the defensive system the Lakers play.

Ask me again in April and I may feel different, but right now it's the Cavs that scare me as a Lakers fan. But the idea of marketing a Kobe/LeBron final must be David Stern's wet dream.

For more Spurs-Lakers love, check out Forum Blue and Gold's Game Preview and Chat. Graydon will be around later today with a longer reflection on the Spurs-Lakers rivalry. Check back for that. The game is on ESPN, tonight at 9.

At Center Court with Ben Q. Rock

2009-01-10T13:02:00.000-08:00

Ben Q. Rock, The first ever participant in our "At Center Court" series, returns today to answer a few more questions about a Magic team that has looked better and better as the season has progressed. Let's get down to business:

GG: Jameer Nelson is nasty. When did that happen? Is he an All-Star?

BQR: We got a glimpse of what Jameer could do in last year's playoffs, when he posted a true shooting percentage of 62.7 and an effective field goal percentage of 59.3. He more than held his own against the Raptors' fairly intimidating point guard duo of T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon, blowing by them on offense and sticking with them on defense. He also played very well in the second-round series against Detroit, but it was against Toronto that he made a bit of a name for himself.

Unfortunately, he got off to a rocky start this season, and some of us Magic fans wondered if the playoff performance was an aberration. Through the team's first 7 games, Jameer shot 39.1% from the field, 15.4% from three-point range, and averaged 10 points, 5.1 assists, and 2.6 turnovers per game. In the 25 games he's played since then--he missed 5 games due to injury--Jameer has shot 53.5% from the field, 50.5% from three-point range, and averaged 17.96 points, 5.1 assists, and 1.8 turnovers per game. He's back at the top of his game.

It looks like Jameer's slow start was incidental. His stellar play this season, and his coming-out party in the playoffs, has me convinced that this is the real Jameer.

Jameer isn't a more worthy All-Star candidate than Devin Harris, but I have a lot of trouble putting any other Eastern point guard ahead of him. Rajon Rondo's having a great year also, but his play has slipped lately. Ultimately, only two of those three players will make it, and I'm afraid Jameer will be the odd man out. Still, he's emerged as one of the game's best point guards, and nobody can take that away from him.

GG: I saw the Bulls get crushed by the Magic at the United Center last week and a funny thing happened. J.J. Redick actually played. I checked his stats and supposedly he averages 16.7 minutes a game this season. Is that true and if so, why?

BQR: Yes, it's true: J.J. Redick is actually playing this year. It's actually been pretty rocky for him, actually, but he's gained his footing in the last week or so. He won everyone over in training camp and Stan Van Gundy assured him the backup shooting-guard job, behind only free-agent signee Mickael Pietrus. He responded by missing all 8 of his shot attempts in the Magic's first 3 games, of which they only won one. With the Magic's defense struggling, Van Gundy turned to Keith Bogans. J.J.'s shooting woes continued, even in his diminished role, and he didn't make a field goal until the Magic's 11th game (his 7th), which was his first career start; with Pietrus hurt, Van Gundy opted to start Redick to keep Bogans' energy on the bench. Yup, that's J.J. Redick's career: keeping Keith Bogans fresh.

In all seriousness, though, J.J.'s really turned it around of late. With Pietrus out and Bogans limited due to injury, Redick has returned to the rotation, albeit behind rookie Courtney Lee. He's shooting the ball more confidently, and it's showing in the box score: in the last 5 games, J.J. has made 18 of his 31 field goals and 10 of his 18 three-point attempts for 49 points. And, although he'll never be mistaken for Raja Bell on defense, he's made great strides on that end of the floor thanks to an offseason spent in Duke University's training room.

If he can keep it up, there's a good chance J.J. will retain his spot in the rotation once Pietrus returns, almost certainly at Bogans' expense.

GG: Obviously Dwight Howard has always been an excellent basketball player but he seems to have crossed a threshold this season, particularly on the offensive end of the ball: Rather than merely unleashing an endless array of dunks he seems to have developed a rather sophisticated offensive arsenal. How, in your opinion, has Howard developed between this season and last?

BQR: I'm not sure if I'd use "sophisticated" to describe Dwight's offense just yet, but he has gotten better. He can finish with either hand around the basket, he has added a few more spin moves to his repertoire. For the most part, though, Dwight gets his points thanks to his wicked athleticism.

The biggest change in Dwight's game is his attitude. Yes, he's still a clown--witness his pre-game routine with the shoe mat at midcourt, his blowing on his hands after making clutch plays, his rubbing the ball affectionately during some dead-ball situations--but his overall approach to the game is more serious. He takes the game seriously and appears more focused. Coach Van Gundy has described that the change is even more pronounced in practice, which indicates that Dwight still takes a lot of pride in being a showman during games.

Let's be frank: he's not Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, or LeBron James. But when he wants to make a play--swoop in for a put-back dunk, set a bone-crushing screen, or swat a shot at the rim--he's going to do it. And he won't be sorry, either.

GG: In general, this team seems to have crossed a threshold. I would argue they are a legitimate title contender for the first time since the Shaq years. What, in your opinion, is different about this season's squad?

BQR: Another year of experience for Dwight and Jameer, plus the added athleticism on the wings (Pietrus and Lee finish the fast break better than any Orlando swingman since Tracy McGrady), makes a lot of difference. What's most encouraging, though, is the team's improved play at home. One year after they enjoyed more success on the road (27-14) than at home (25-16), the Magic have won 11 straight at Amway Arena and own the Eastern Conference's third-best home record, at 16-3. Last year was great, but I was a bit deluded when I thought to myself the Magic had a contending team. Now? There's not a single team in this league that I don't think the Magic could handle in a 7-game series. They wouldn't be favored to win all of them, but they wouldn't be counted out, either. That's huge.

Meanwhile, Dwight Howard and Courtney Lee are 23, Jameer Nelson is 26, while Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are won't turn 30 until August and March, respectively. Lewis will be on the books for a while, and at a high price, but sweet-shooting tall guys who don't rely on their athleticism to score age fairly well, so there's not a lot to worry about there. Turk handles the ball a lot, and maybe that skill will diminish with age, but he's also not a guy who needs to be able to jump out of the gym in order to be productive. I like this team's chances over the next several seasons, especially with Stan Van Gundy--a criminally underrated coach in this league--at the helm.

George Hill's Aerial Acrobatics

2009-01-09T12:46:00.000-08:00

Hill's athleticism is a breathe of fresh air. While many people accuse the Spurs of being boring (an accusation that I think is ridiculous), it is refreshing to have a guy out there who makes the poor rim quiver with fear whenever he takes it to the hole. When it comes to basketball, I'll always take execution over expression but every once and a while you need a player that makes you raise out of your seat just a tad.

(h/t Project Spurs)

Other People: X's and O's on Spurs Offense

2009-01-09T08:51:00.001-08:00

The always helpful X's and O's of Basketball is running a nice break down of last night's contest against the Clippers. They write: "When you get to the level of the NBA, where everyone is talented, everyone is capable of making spectacular athletic plays. The cerebral becomes the intangible." Point your browser in their direction to read more about the "most generic" offense in the league.

The Notebook: Clippers-Spurs, 1-8-09

2009-01-09T06:00:00.000-08:00

I watched much of last night's Clippers game in disbelief over Mike Dunleavy's defensive strategies. In the first half, Dunleavy doubled Duncan with a guard, allowing Roger Mason to set up unattended behind the 3 point line. The Clippers were fortunate not to get burned on those possessions--San Antonio is the best 3 point shooting team in the league at .406, and Mason is a big part of that. But Dunleavy went from questionable double-teams to outright absurdity in the 2nd half. Kevin Arnovitz writes:

Realizing the Clippers don’t have a lot to work with, I’m not sure that a zone is a viable defensive option against San Antonio. With all their firepower from beyond the arc, the Spurs can stretch a zone silly, which is exactly what they do to begin the second half down one to the Clippers[.]

Kevin goes on to detail the horror, but suffice to say that San Antonio's 1 point halftime deficit was converted into a 22 point victory by more than strong play from the team--they got a little help from the other bench. The Spurs finished the game at only 37.9% from the arc, but 4 of their 11 makes came at timely points in the 3rd quarter, and 3 of those were on wide open Mike Finley shots against the zone. But a more telling stat is that Duncan had 9 assists in 31 minutes. He simply picked apart the defensive sets thrown at him, or, should I say, laid at his feet.

In short, I wasn't too impressed with Dunleavy, but we'll give him a mulligan because his roster is completely riddled with injury. On a bright note, Al Thornton and Eric Gordon are dynamite young players.

From a Spurs perspective, I was pleased to see Pop rest the Big 3. Ginobili played a couple minutes to start the 4th quarter (unlike Parker and Duncan, he did not start the 2nd half), but the 3 stars were more or less done after the 3rd. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili finished with 31, 30, and 26 minutes respectively.

My appreciation for George Hill and Roger Mason Jr. continues to grow. Setting aside their numbers, I love that each player plays "within himself." Each player does this well, although "playing within themselves" looks worlds different depending on who you are watching.

Roger Mason is a wide-eyed gunner. If you give him a shaft of daylight, there is a strong chance he'll shoot the ball. But that's fine. He plays best when he's aggressive and looking for his shot, and he's a great shooter. The Spurs want him to score. Midway through the 4th quarter, Spurs fans were graced us with a classic Mace moment: Kurt Thomas provided a screen at 27 or 28 feet that Mason barely dribbled beyond before drilling a deep 3. Popovich would mangle every player on the team for taking that shot, with the exception of Mason and Ginobili.

George Hill, on the other hand, is nearly Mason's opposite. He plays "within himself" by not forcing the action. He's amazingly patient and composed for a rookie. He simply orchestrates the offense and waits for good shots to find him. When they do, he typically makes good on the opportunities. Last night he scored 6 points in 18 minutes, on 3-5 shooting. But he didn't play the game much differently than Monday night's showing in Miami, where he had 15 points in 17 minutes. Monday's game was more impressive, don't get me wrong, but in both cases he let the action come to him.

It isn't surprising, then, that Mason and Hill's greatest strengths are also their greatest weaknesses, and this is especially the case with Hill. Occasionally, Mason needs to restrain his lust to shoot by resetting the offense or feeding a teammate. Hill, on the other hand, needs to attack more often. On a team that is lousy at getting to the foul line, the Spurs would benefit from a little more selfishness from Hill. He's one of their best players at getting to the stripe.

I'm confident that, as the season progresses, each player will nuance their games in these ways. By resting his core, Popovich is carefully providing minutes for newcomers Mason and Hill, who look more comfortable by the minute. In the past, the Spurs have been known to disappear on offense, entering into half-quarter or quarter-long stretches of anemic production. This team is different. With Mason, Hill, and Finley the team now has viable 4th, 5th, and 6th scorers. They're not a juggernaut just yet, but they're picking up steam. The Spurs have won 15 of their last 18 heading into an extremely difficult stretch of games. In some ways, that much anticipated drive to five starts Sunday night against Orlando. The Spurs, says Jeff Saragin, are ranked 30th in terms of strength of schedule. That's about to change.

At Center Court with Kevin Arnovitz

2009-01-08T07:24:00.001-08:00

There may be no nobler fan in the whole Association than a Clippers fan. Many franchises struggle in games, are ignored by the media and just generally make it hard on their supporters, but the Clippers have the added disadvantage of playing in the shadow of the Los Angeles Lakers. And yet, with one of the NBA's marquee teams housed in the same building, the Clippers have managed to garner a loyal fan base.

One member of this base is Kevin Arnovitz, the author of the excellent ClipperBlog. Kevin was kind enough to answer a few questions for us so we here at 48 Minutes of Hell could gain a little insight into this embattled but nonetheless loved franchise.

GG: There seems to be a growing consensus that signing Baron Davis was a mistake. Do you agree and if so, why?

KA: That's a complex question because it's hard to evaluate the Davis acquisition independent of what transpired with Elton Brand. Had Brand re-signed, things appeared very promising. Once Brand bolted for Philadelphia, Davis seemed to fall into a spiral of self-pity. Since there's no statistical model in the world that supports Davis shooting in the low 30% range from the field, I think it's safe to assume that he's hurt, which puts a further asterisk next to the question. We still haven't seen how this team functions with a healthy Davis, a healthy Randolph, a healthy Kaman, and an increasingly confident Eric Gordon. If and when that happens, we'll be able to render judgment on Davis.

GG: The absence of Ricky Davis has given Eric Gordon an opportunity to see a lot of court time. In your opinion, how has Gordon played so far this season? Do you believe Gordon has the talent to be a centerpiece in a rebuilt Clippers squad?

KA: Yes. Gordon is the Clippers' best shooting guard since Ron Harper. He has a good handle, is decisive on the drive with a good hesitation move, and is incredibly strong -- all of which serve his dribble game well. His shooting stroke is gorgeous, and he has limitless range. Gordon defends both 1s and 2s extremely well, and has the strength to fight through screens. He's third in the league among starting shooting guards in true shooting percentage, behind only Ray Allen and Kevin Martin. Right now, his rebounding rate is a bit....Crawfordian...so that's an area where he can improve.

GG: During the 05-06 season, I thought the Clippers were well on their way to building a team that would be a perennial playoff presence. After an impressive postseason run that year, what went wrong? What moves (roster, coaching, front office) are necessary to get this team back on track?

KA: Elton got hurt; Cassell and Mobley got older; Kaman improved, but not enough. To get back to respectability, the Clippers need able bodies first and foremost. A healthy Baron Davis and an emerging Eric Gordon are nice anchors in the backcourt. With Randolph, Marcus Camby, and Kaman, they're more than spoken for on the block. What the Clippers need to get back to 45-50 wins is a 3 who can facilitate and pass. Thornton is a bit of a black hole. A 3 out of the Odom, Battier Turkoglu mold -- even a Luke Walton or Nicolas Batum -- would serve them well.

The Spurs and the Clippers tip-off this evening in San Antonio at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central.

Watching the Rotation: The Tolliver Bell Tolls

2009-01-07T14:46:00.000-08:00

Some San Antonio fans are scratching their heads over the Anthony Tolliver pink slip, but not this one. This was an obvious move. Let me count the ways:

Tolliver was 31 different flavors of hustle, and a nifty passer, but his role on the team was to create space for Tim Duncan with his shooting. Too bad for Tolliver that he was shooting .292 from the field and .220 from the arc. It's not a matter of why the Spurs waived Tolliver, it's a question of why they kept him so long?
Anthony Tolliver's contract would have become guaranteed as of 6 pm Wednesday. This is common knowledge, so I won't say more than the cut saves the Spurs money.
Tolliver is a would be--if he hit his shots--roster redundancy.
The extra roster spot is helpful:

The Spurs can now accommodate a two for one trade, if such a scenario presents itself
The Spurs are able to "interview" D-League talent on 10-day contracts
The Spurs can now sign a player that is waived, whether a young player for the Toros or a trade deadline buy out (see: Cassell, Sam)

Beyond these things, it's safe to assume Malik Hairston has impressed the Spurs. Ian Mahinmi remains injured, so Tolliver could have served the roll of emergency big. Meanwhile, the Spurs wings are healthy, so keeping Hairston is an indicator that the team sees him as more than a passing interest. The good folks at Draft Express are in agreement with 48M0H that Hairston has a chance to crack San Antonio's 2009/10 rotation.

Who could the Spurs bring in to replace Tolliver? Toro forward/centers Andre Brown and Charles Gaines are possibilities. Personally, I'd like to see the Spurs spend 10-day money on NBDL standout Courtney Sims. But they're pretty good at what they do, so I'm content to wait and see.

Manu's Block on D-Wade

2009-01-06T12:20:00.000-08:00

This is a spectacular play on the part of Ginobili. Aside from being extremely clutch (the Spurs were up by 3 points with around a minute and a half left when the block occurred), one of the more difficult feats in the Association may be blocking D-Wade without committing a foul. Few players draw contact as well as Wade. It also demonstrates Manu's underrated leaping ability (best exemplified by the high number of rebounds he pulls down for a SG).

Tim Duncan's New Habits

2009-01-06T07:23:00.000-08:00

I recently noted that the Spurs inconsistent board work is an issue this season. In this post, I want to look at another half-curious/half-disturbing trend: the frequency at which Tim Duncan gets to the foul line, which I suspect is related to his rebound totals. He's rebounding roughly one less shot per game this season, down to 10.3 per contest. How do these numbers relate?

As a team, the Spurs do not have an overwhelming interior presence---odd to say, I know, with Tim Duncan and all. If you've watched any recent telecast, you've heard Sean Elliott say that his former team is at the bottom of the league in free throw attempts per game. As I write, they are ranked last in free throw attempts per game. At the same time, they are ranked 26th in team rebounding, with a differential of -0.7.

In general, Tim Duncan doth protest too much. But he and Tony Parker are not getting any star treatment. Setting aside my homer hat, Tony Parker is fouled nearly every time he's in the open court. Yet, there have been numerous times this season when refs simply didn't blow their whistle. So in one sense the Spurs are not getting calls. But this is a marginal and, admittedly, a controverted issue. This is not the peg upon which to hang your hat. The bigger issue is that the Spurs don't give the refs much opportunity to blow their whistles. Let me explain.

The Team

The Spurs are only fouled on 9% of their possessions, which, as I said, is last in the league. This is an internal problem. When you squeeze this particular lemon, you can make some pretty tart lemonade. The Spurs are last in the league in dunks, which is somewhat misleading because Parker and Duncan finish many shots with layups or flip ins. Nevertheless, the statisticians tell us they've only thrown down 27 dunks this season. The next closest team, Indiana, has dunked the ball 61 times. Following right on the heels of this, the Spurs are second to last on And-1s. You may think this is meaningless, but Boston, LA, Cleveland, and Orlando--the league's elite--are all clustered in the top third of these categories. The Spurs score a meager 25.2 points on inside shots, which is, again, last in the league.

The Spurs are settling for too many jumpers, or, as is more likely the case, are going to too many screen and roll sets that result in a mid-range jumper. They score 31.7 ppg from mid-range. They're the leagues 4th most efficient team in this regard, shooting .421 on their 2 pt jump shots. If you watch the games, you know this means Parker's 19 foot jumper at the wing (whenever his defender goes underneath the screen), Finley going left for a curl and catch off stagger screens, and Duncan knocking down a combination of high post pick and pops and innumerable impossibly-angled bank shots. The Spurs have tremendous mid-range personnel.

Their anemic interior scoring numbers are bolstered by a love affair with the three point stripe. The Spurs are near the top of the league from deep, scoring 25.2 per game. Only the Knicks and Magic are decidedly better in this respect. Led by the hot handed Matt Bonner, Roger Mason Jr. and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are the most accurate 3 point shooting team in the league, connecting on .406 of their attempts. Over 25% of their shots come on 3 pt attempts, a percentage that groups them together with another 15 or so teams, including Cleveland, Portland, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Phoenix and Denver. This may come as a surprise to some, but these numbers are the mark of a good team.

Tim Duncan

Last season, 60% of Tim Duncan's field goal attempts came at the hoop. In the 34 games of his current campaign, Duncan's inside shot attempts are down 8%. During the 07/8 regular season, 15% (177/1178) of Tim Duncan's shots came from the area on the left wing where he shoots his bank shot or from the left elbow extended, his favorite pick and pop zone. This season he's shooting 3% more from these areas, with percentages in the 50s, sharp improvements from last season. In addition to this, he's on pace to exceed his 07/8 shot attempts from the left and right baseline and corner (mid-range, of course), and to do so prior to the All-Star break. He's already exceeded his shot totals from the right elbow extended--his totals for last season were from 78 games, he's only played 34 this season. In terms of total shot attempts from that area of the court, he's on pace to bury last season's numbers. In short, Tim Duncan is shooting much more often, and more effectively, from mid-range this season. Why does this matter to this discussion? These are not shot attempts that will win many foul calls or afford Duncan great position to corral rebounds.

During his Spurs game calls, Sean Elliott has mentioned this as a deliberate strategy of Gregg Popovich. Before the season began, it was decided that the coaching staff would do more to preserve Duncan's body for the postseason, more than the careful management of his minutes as in the past. Duncan was asked to pitch a tent at his favorite mid-range spots, and he's so far he's obliged, even with injuries to the frontline. We know that Bonner, Tolliver, Thomas, and, to a lesser extent, Oberto are all bigs who score on set shots away from the hoop. If one adds Tim Duncan into that class--it bears repeating, he's still on the block for over 50% of his shot attempts, so this is loose inclusion--the Spurs are bereft of an interior scoring from their bigs. There is no doubt that this translates into a lack of foul calls, dunks and And-1s.

Joey Crawford

There is, however, a curious footnote to all this. L.J. Ellis has suggested that Tim Duncan's free throw attempts have been in decline since the Joey Crawford incident. Duncan's free throw attempts per game dropped from 7.1 to 5.9 between 06/7 and 07/8. 15% is a sharp reduction in free throw attempts, especially considering that Duncan attempted more shots per game in '07 (15.1 vs. 14.1) with roughly the same amount of attempts coming from around the hoop (711 vs. 752). At first glance, those are troubling number. Ellis, however, is quick to note that this probably coincidental, and I tend to agree.

These numbers could suggest bitterness among the zebra sect. But there is evidence in the referees favor. In terms of FTAs, Duncan's numbers are up 5% percent from last season. He's averaging 6.5 free throws per contest, despite the fact that he shooting much more often from mid-range. The distrust of Spurs fans for Joey Crawford was forever cemented after the Derek Fischer no-call foul on Brent Barry as time expired in Game 4 of last season's WCF. It's likely an odd arrangement of the moon and stars--a statistical outlier. Nevertheless, San Antonio has its own class of truthers who are certain to provide David Stern with the transparency he so loves.

Popovich Only Coaches for the Postseason

Duncan is shooting more from mid-range, Bowen's minutes are down, the Spurs are providing rookies with valuable minutes, etc... I expect that next season Popovich will keep himself fresh by letting Mike Budenholzer coach the first 40 games. I jest, but these trends point to the fact that not only do the Spurs peak late, they won't even play certain cards until March. Popovich is disciplined that way. Between now and March, his team will get by. (They do have the best record in the league since December 4th, and, honestly, they're not playing terrific basketball right now. Really, you can check if you'd like.) These are the sort of things that make John Hollinger's little machine steam. Nevertheless, this fan worries. Adding another rebounder wouldn't hurt and getting more fanfare from the referees would be an added bonus. In fact, I worry that unless they correct these problems they'll finish second to the Lakers yet again this season. I'm not sure what numbers he's staring at, but Pop seems to agree. Last night he said, "We're just not in the same league with the Lakers right now."

Match-Up of the Night: The NBA vs. The BCS

2009-01-05T16:01:00.000-08:00

There are very few nights a year when another sporting event trumps a Spurs game. The night in which the University of Texas Longhorns play in a bowl game is one. As a resident of Austin for 22 years I have a pretty strong affinity for the Horns and will subsequently skip this evenings game to watch my boys in burnt orange march to victory on the fields of Glendale. Go Spurs. Go Horns.

Parker's Game-Winner Against the 76ers

2009-01-05T13:31:00.000-08:00

I didn't have a chance to see the Sixers-Spurs game on Saturday so I'm pretty excited I stumbled across this video over at SLAM Online. Although this season's squad is taking years off my life, a part of me is loving all the late-game heroics:

Bowen Revisited

2009-01-05T08:20:00.000-08:00

In the early days of 48 Minutes of Hell I published an ethical defense of Bruce Bowen and his style of play. At the time we had a much smaller readership than we do currently so I wanted to return to the topic.

Bowen is clearly in the winter of his career. Even Popovich, who will stubbornly play some veterans until well after they have begun receiving social security checks, has removed Bowen from the starting lineup and cut his minutes significantly (he is averaging 21.4 minutes per game compared to 30.2 last year). With Bowen nearing the end of his tenure as a Spur (he will likely retire after his contract expires in the 2009/2010 season), it's time to begin reflecting on the significance of his career.

Bowen will obviously be remembered for two things: His stifling perimeter defense and for being a "dirty" player. With almost no help whatsoever from the rest of the roster, Bowen's reputation alone has caused many basketball fans to conclude the Spurs in their entirety are a dirty team (the infamous Horry-Nash hip check, a single play, has helped to solidify this misguided notion). But the relative class of the franchise as a whole is not my concern: I want to directly address Bowen and his style of play.

Bowen is not merely an ethical enigma but a statistical one as well. For further thoughts on Bowen's unique relationship with the box score, make sure you check out Tim's piece from New Years Day.

My defense of Bowen has multiple parts so I want to break it down slowly and methodically.

The Court as Unique Ethical Space:

Sports do not abide by the same ethical codes that we have in regular society. The court (or field or ring) is an inorganically created space in which individuals abide by a set of arbitrarily defined rules. The codes of conduct pursued by the average individual are not valid during a sporting event and vice versa.

For example, it is illegal and for the most part unjustifiable to engage in fisticuffs in public. If I were to haul off and hit someone, I could be tried for assault. But in a boxing ring, such activity is not merely legal, it is essential. A boxer is encouraged to punch his opponent and praised for the skill and ferocity with which he does so. So it can be concluded that there is nothing inherently ethical or unethical about the act of punching someone. Its relative merit or demerit is directly linked to the social space in which the act occurs.

Every sport has an authoritative organization or series of authorities that determine the common laws by which a respective game is played. In professional football, it is called the National Football Association. In Boxing, it is some assortment of the several championship associations and the state boxing committees. In professional basketball we call it the National Basketball Association. The NBA decides what actions are legal and illegal during a basketball game. It is illegal to move with the ball if a player is not dribbling. It is illegal to punch another player. It is legal to redirect a shot if that shot has yet to touch the backboard or has yet to reach the top of its arc.

In fact, the NBA can even go back and declare specific acts illegal once the 48 minute period which it set has ended. For instance, last season Bruce Bowen was suspended for a game after kneeing Chris Paul in the chest, even though Bowen did not receive a foul call at the time. The league clearly displayed its power to review any on-court activity.

My point is this: If a referee does not call a foul and the NBA does not retroactively go back and impose some type of punishment, than the play is not unethical. The league has the ability to reflect on the action and dole out punishment but if it finds no fault in what occurred then there is in fact no fault. There is not an existent set of moral or legal criteria for the game other than the ones the NBA sets. There is no natural law of the hardwood. We as fans and as commentators can lobby for certain rules to be applied (for instance a great many of us, myself included, felt there should be some type of repercussion for an egregious flop, although I felt it should be internal to the game, not external such as a fine), but until they are applied there is not a moral foundation on which we may righteously base our ire.

In other words, if the league doesn't punish Bowen than he has done nothing wrong. And despite his reputation, the league punishes Bowen extremely infrequently.

Intentionality:

When I first made this argument, a commenter noted that, although I made some good points, he felt I did not address the fact that Bowen is trying to hurt people while playing. Although my previous argument about the relativity of ethics in sports suggests that trying to hurt someone is not always wrong (for instance in boxing), I agree that this is a fair point: in basketball acts which are construed as genuinely malicious are looked down upon by the authorities that created and continue to revise the legal framework in which the game is played. What is problematic about this argument is that it is based off the notion that we can actually know Bowen's intention. I would argue that it is very difficult to decipher the relative benevolence or maliciousness of a player's intentions at any given moment.

For example, after David West injured his lower back while being picked by Robert Horry during last season's WCSF, the internet exploded with accusations of malicious intent on the part of Horry. I, as well as several other observers of the Association, felt West's injury was entirely an accident. Others felt Horry intended to injure West. My point is not to rehash the debate over that particular incident; my point is that thoughtful, respectful individuals can radically disagree about what they believe a player's intentions to be. The fact of the matter is, none of us other than Bowen himself know whether he intends to injure people when on the court and it is dubious at best to act as if you do.

The Basketball Court as Pedagogical Space:

In nearly every level of sports prior to professional sports (and even sometimes at the pro level), there is a strong pedagogical element. Coaches hope to not merely teach their players the rules of the game and the strategies/tactics it takes to prevail, but also to instill in them a level of character. Most youth associations and even some college programs promote some form of virtue ethics which are meant to crossover into your personal life. But at the pro level, the pedagogical nature of the game recedes rapidly. These are no longer boys; they are men. These are no longer students; they are professionals. They are paid to win basketball games and they are allowed to use whatever legal tactics are necessary to win games. It is not the responsibility of the NBA to attempt to instill in its players a moral fortitude which they will carry off the court.

As we noted time and time again here on this blog, the San Antonio Spurs have a "culture" or more specifically a level of character they look for in perspective players. But this has just as much if not more to do with what it takes to win as it does with being honorable for honor's sake. Having a moral code whose existence is directed towards the telos of victory is different than one directed at the creation of virtue.

The Quality of the Game:

Many people would make the argument that Bruce's style of play is problematic because of the way it effects the "quality of the game" or more accurately the quality of a fan's viewing experience. Some people like to call this the "dignity of the game" argument (often employed against the hack-a-shaq tactic) but the really issue is not dignity, the real issue is that the activity being committed is limiting your enjoyment of the game (in the instance of the hack-a-shaq by slowing down the pace of play to an almost unbearable level).

But unlike Popovich's oft maligned tactic (which even I have railed against at points), I would argue Bowen's "dirty" style of play actually increases the intensity and intrigue of a game: Is there any emotion more righteous than the indignation a fan feels when a player on his team has been subject to a "dirty" play? Nothing brings out the deepest degrees of partisanship like physical basketball. Yes, you may hate players like Bruce Bowen, but isn't he exactly the kind of player you love to hate? The guy whose existence makes your hatred so justifiable? Bowen's style of play does not undermine the quality of the game; in fact, it takes basketball (and basketball fandom) to the peak of its dramatic heights.

Notes for Commenters:

I understand that this is one of my more controversial stances and is likely to produce some pretty strong reactions in people. But this is a serious conversation I would like to have. If I feel a commenter has a made a legitimate point, I will try my best to address it, either in an updated version of this piece or in a later one. Note that the use of foul or offensive language will automatically disqualify you from having made a legitimate point.

Rebounding Redux: A Note in Passing

2009-01-05T06:41:00.000-08:00

Early this season, I brought attention to the fact that the Spurs were struggling to out rebound opponents. Last Wednesday, I noted that the Bucks victory over the Spurs was primarily aided by a +14 rebound margin. It won't surprise our readers that I'm back on the rebound hobby horse this morning, especially after the Spurs just barely squeaked by the 76ers on Saturday night while losing the battle of the boards 32-40. On the season, the Spurs have a rebound record of 13-18-2. Not surprisingly, their win streaks are often punctuated by a trend of out-rebounding their opponents; their losing streaks and close victories are punctuated by a trend of being out rebounded.

The most troubling aspect of this is that the Spurs are sometimes out rebounded by double digits, as was the case with their last loss. Even in victories, such as Saturday's Philadelphia game, there is often a noteworthy deficit.

I'm not sure how the Spurs plan to address this problem, but it does help to explain their inconsistent defense. The Spurs build their defense around a handful of basic principals, one of which is to hold their opponents to one contested shot attempt per possession. Consistently being out rebounded is a sure fire way to allow opponents multiple shot attempts for each trip down the floor.

I had hopes that Ian Mahinmi's return from ankle injury would slow the bleeding, but there is rumor that Mahinmi is off to L.A. to see a specialist---a concrete sign that his return is in doubt. If not Mahinmi, then who? Fabricio Oberto is nursing a foot injury and has never been known to own the glass. Kurt Thomas is certainly a reliable option, and has rebounded well in several games this season. As we previously noted, Matt Bonner and Anthony Tolliver are qualified options. Qualified because their board work is mitigated by their place in the offense. That is, they spend a lot of time spacing the floor for Duncan by hovering around the 3 point arc. At least on the offensive end, they're in a tough spot to help on the glass. Add to this that neither player is a skilled rebounder and you're left with problems. Both players, however, do hustle and play hard, so they'll never be faulted for their effort.

The Spurs have limited trade and free agent options to address this issue. There is the improbable possibility of Joe Smith, but no one is holding their breath on that front. Sean Williams is being shopped by the Nets, but do the Spurs want to take that kind of risk, and who do they have to give that the Nets would want? D-League players and free agents such as Courtney Sims, Rod Benson, and Richard Hendrix are out there, but the Spurs don't have a roster space available to sign them without waiving Anthony Tolliver or Malik Hairston. Perhaps their most likely option is Andre Brown, who is playing well for the Austin Toros and has previously served stints with the Sonics, Grizzlies, and Bobcats. But there is still the problem of whose spot to give him.

I don't have any answers. We're waiting to see how this develops.

At Center Court with Sixers4Guidos

2009-01-03T06:52:00.000-08:00

Ricky for from Sixers4Guidos is, in his own words, a proud Kyle Korver groupie. By running the best Italian-based, Sixers-dedicated blog on the internet, he represents a small but integral part of David Stern's master plan for global domination. And he lovingly calls me Timmy, which is something. I'm just not sure what. The picture to the left may or may not be Ricky, but it is certainly a Guido. We think. Whatever, on to the conversation.

TV: Samual Dalembert is on the trading block? What can the Sixers reasonably expect to get in return for him?

S4G: Honestly I don't think we could get much for Dalembert. His contract is huge (running for two more seasons after this one, at 11.3 and 12.2 mill...) and he's having career lows in PPG and FG %. But the most important thing is that he's playing like crap and affecting the team negatively, often committing stupid mistakes in key moments of the game. I don't think that anyone who has seen him play this season would want him, quite frankly.

This will be on GM Stefanski. If he lands anything valuable for Dalembert, it will be a masterpiece trade. Maybe a team in desperate need of a big man (emphasis on "desperate") and with a short term goal in sight (a playoff spot or a deep run in the postseason) could perhaps bite and trade for him, which is what I'm hoping for. But I'm afraid we will get other garbage in return: I just hope it will be garbage we would get rid of earlier than him (like expiring a year before). He could be put in a package with Andre Miller, who is the Sixers' best asset with an expiring 10 million dollar contract. If you package Miller into a deal the trade possibilities are countless.

TV: When will Marreese Speights begin to see more minutes?

S4G: Let me say that Speights is a very nice player and one of the brightest surprises for the Sixers in this troubling year. Before the season started, many fans and analysts thought he would have had troubles in finding a place in the rotation and now the same ones are asking for a starting spot for him, and at Dalembert's expense. He's athletic (many follow up dunks, alley oops etc), blocks shots, has a nice touch, can shoot from mid-range, shoots FTs well (80%) and has a good "sense" of the game. His rebounding and post defense needs improving, and he probably lacks some inches and bulk to play starting C at a high level, but he's definitely a NBA player. As for his minutes, I think he's been mismanaged by coaches (Cheeks and Di Leo), passing from nights with 20-25 minutes to night's when he logs 1 or 2. More recently, he's consistently getting around 20+, which I think is fine for him in a rookie season. Dalembert's decreasing value and Speight's rise are clearly interconnected.

TV: Lou Williams is a solid young player, but his shot can really work itself into a funk. Will he ever become a permanent starting point guard?

S4G: I like LW a lot but don't think he can be a starting PG for a contender. He's more a combo guard, Jamaal Crawford-type, that is probably more effective off the bench. He likes to shoot and will never be a passing-first PG---passing is always his second option. He's almost always used as SG, beside Miller, especially in 4th quarters, when he's always one of Sixers' most effective scorers due to his ability of beating the man off the dribble and knocking down the long jumper. Williams is a clutch crunch time performer, perhaps the most reliable weapon on a team that loses a lot of games with last second (missed) shots and costly TOs (where we're willing to the blame Iguodala for his ability to shine). Some say LW projects as a Billups type of PG, but in my best case scenario I see him more as a Vinnie Johnson type of scorer.

TV: Coaches: In your opinion, who should Stefanski bring in next summer? New blood such as Mike Budenholzer or a retread such as Avery Johnson or Jeff Van Gundy?

S4G: Not a great fan of JVG, while I think Avery Johnson is a good coach that can only do better with his second team. Don't know Budenholzer enough but I've always been a fan of hard nosed coaches like Sloan and Popovich, so if he's that type of guy, he would be more than welcome!

Sixers4Guido really does have a fun site. Think Michelangelo Antonioni meets Mike D'Antoni meets Toto. Or not. Whatever it is, it's worth your time. If you point your browser in their direction, you might just find a voice you recognize answering questions about the Spurs. Italy: suddenly well-informed.

The Stephon Marbury Howler Revisited

2009-01-02T14:12:00.000-08:00

Graydon and I have been upfront about the prospect of Stephon Marbury becoming a Spur. In short, we'd rather spend the rest of our days writing love letters--all folded to impress and sprinkled with glittery heart-shaped stickers--to the Lakers and Suns than see Marbury join the Silver and Black. Fortunately, Gregg Popovich would never make such a bone-headed move. As you all know by now, the interwebs are alive with reports that Marbury will eventually become a Celtic. This is Spurs-related in two ways:

Marbury is a corrosive ball stopper that will only hurt the mighty Celtics. Let them sign him. I'll give even odds to a future locker room confrontation between Kevin Garnett and Marbury. Classic subtraction by addition.
I'm still hopeful the Thunder will buy out Joe Smith, possibly clearing the way for him to join the Spurs. This remains an improbable proposition, but if Marbury joins the Celtics than they're likely removed from the Smith sweeps. In related news, the Sac Bee is reporting that the Celtics have interest in Robert Horry. No really, it's true.

Talk amongst yourselves.

Other People: Canis Hoopus on Dennis Lindsey

2009-01-02T11:44:00.000-08:00

A little while back, we discussed the possibility of Glen Taylor wising up and hiring front office personnel from the San Antonio brass. Wyn from T-Wolves blog Canis Hoopus is running an executive search series. Sam Presti replacement and Spurs Assistant GM Dennis Lindsey is the latest to enter his cross hairs.

After the Luis Scola trade, many Spurs fans were eager to have Lindsey's head on a platter, suspecting too much buddy-buddy between Lindsey and his former cronies in Houston. This is a doubtful charge since Lindsey was slighted by Houston ownership in favor of Darryl Morey. But, you know, it is what it is.

Wyn notes:

It's worth noting that Lindsey served in Houston with Wolves Assistant Coach Dean Cooper from '99 to '07. Cooper, in addition to coaching and scouting in Houston, spent some time there as VP of Player Personnel. If either one rises to a management position with the Wolves, I would imagine they'd get a hold of the other one pretty quickly.

You can read the rest of the post here.

Bruce Bowen and the Evolution of the Box Score

2009-01-01T12:06:00.000-08:00

Bruce Bowen's opportunity to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award is past him. The league's premier defender for the bulk of this decade is past his prime. He's still a great defender, but his minutes are down and his feet are a little slower than this time last year. And while it's a safe bet that the Spurs will retire his number, it's doubtful that many outside the Spurs faithful will remember his name in 20 years.

There are at least three reasons such accolades eluded the defensive ace. The first is that Bowen's reputation as a dirty player did not curry favor with end of the season award voters. The second is the tremendous play of other great defenders, such as Ron Artest, who edged Bowen out year after year. The final reason amounts to conjecture, but I'm reasonably confident in it. Some of those who vote on the DPY award are careless and uninformed. If those words seem harsh, please let me explain.

Bruce Bowen is an 8 time All-Defensive Team recipient. On 3 occasions, Bowen has finished as runner up in the DPY voting, losing twice to Ben Wallace and once to Marcus Camby. Staggering facts when cast against the eye-poppingly underwhelming backdrop of his career stats: 2.9 rebounds, .85 steals, and .40 blocks per game. The league's premier perimeter defender is not known to fill up a box score. This, in a nut shell, has deterred voters away from Bowen and into the arms of other dance partners, whose numbers are all glammed-up and bursting out of their evening gowns. In 2007, Marcus Camby's 13.1, 1.1, and 3.6 were attention grabbers, even if, after hindsight examination, there were better looking women at the party.

Unlike Camby, who defensive excellence is showcased in brilliant weakside help, the beauty of Bowen's game is his ability to stick with his man, unphased by screens and whistles, contesting every shot attempt along the way. Bowen is the classic "intangibles" player. What he does doesn't show up in the box score. John Hollinger writes,

Bowen is still one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball; in terms of moving his feet laterally to keep dribblers in front of him he's as good as anyone in the past two decades. Bowen doesn't block shots or get steals at a high rate, but he continually forces opponents into difficult shots and then uses his reach to get a hand in his man's face.

The limited representation of defensive statistics in box scores extends beyond my sympathy for Bruce Bowen, however. Despite what you may think of him, there is much in Bowen's game that is worthy of imitation from the young. Younger players, those in middle or high school, let alone college, won't model their games after Bowen. Why? The basketball universe neither provides the necessary windows through which young players can appreciate what Bowen does nor accessibility to the concrete measurements such players would need to model themselves after Bowen. Statistically speaking, their eyes are elsewhere.

Unlike past seasons, I find myself gravitating away from ESPN box scores and toward Yahoo! or NBA.com stat lines. Why? The latter two sites provide a slightly better box by including +/- and blocks against statistics. This is barely better than what ESPN provides, but it is better. Frankly, I prefer to land on ESPN.com and stay there, but it's not always possible. In fact, on a given day I'm likely to supplement my daily dose of John Hollinger with 82games.com, The Popcorn Machine, Basketball Prospectus, and the Wages of Win Journal. In addition to these, I really like the Comprehensive Stats page offered by Draft Express, except that it only covers prospects and is infrequently updated. But in general, DX uses a format that deserves wider imitation.

As you can see, that's a lot of surfing. Too much, really. Someone is going to have to bite the bullet and reinvent the boxscore(s). The odds that a 15 year old lands on any of those supplemental pages is significantly lower than his perusing the box score at ESPN. It's a pain to trek all over the net to piece together what is increasingly basic statistical information. It's a problem with a relatively easy solution.

Young fans and future basketball players aspire toward numbers because they are inspired by the numbers they read after each game. This is basic psychology. "Hey, man, did you see that Dwight Howard put up a 30-20? I'm gonna do that." This is far more common to hear than a comment along the lines of, "Did you see that Bowen held McGrady to 4-16 and forced him into two offensive fouls?" It would only benefit the world of basketball if young players had more measures to aspire toward, especially helpful defensive measures. In this way, the NBA has some obligation toward box score reinvention--stat hawking plays a large role in the formation of young players, not to mention its contribution to understanding the game. If basketball is religion than its moral values are stats. If, as one example, charges drawn showed up in the box score, players would listen more intently to their coach when he was explaining defensive rotations. But that, of course, would also cause Joe Player to think more deeply about defensive schemes.

It's a new year. What better time is there to suggest that the NBA and its media partners accelerate their movements toward a more comprehensive set of box scores? What follows falls more into the category of suggestive brainstorm than impassioned plea, and I invite our readers to provide their thoughts in the comments under this post. What should the NBA and its media partners consider? To start:

a more detailed box of basic stats
a usage box score
an efficiency box score
shot charts and Hot Spots graphics
per game 5-man floor unit charts

Beyond this, a media partner like ESPN might include Hollinger stats with their box scores or game flow charts.

I realize that some of these things are of zero interest to certain fans, but all the information they are accustomed to sourcing would still be included in new and revised boxes. Although, I suspect that if "new" stats are noticeably included with the more traditional measures then the interest in such things would would climb rapidly.

Usage and efficiency box scores are nice for die hard fans and arm chair GMs, but the real trick is a more detailed basic box, which could be used at all levels of basketball from grade school up and, perhaps, agreed upon internationally. Already standard stats of minutes played (min), field goals made/attempted (FGM-A), three pointers made/attempted (3PM-A), free throws made/attempted (FTM-A), field goal percentage (FG%), three point percentage (3P%), offensive rebounds (OREB), defensive rebounds (DREB), total rebounds (REB), assists (AST), steals (STL), blocked shots (BS), turnovers (TO), personal fouls (PF), and points (PTS) would remain. What could be added to this list to helpfully inform and shape the basketball community? Here is a list of suggested categories I'd like to see considered for a reinvented basic box score:

Points in the Paint (PP): self-explanatory and common, PP allows fans the ability to not only gauge a players ability to score within the heart of the defense on high percentage shots, but it also gauges his ability to get there, either by establishing early position near the hoop or by beating the perimeter defenders on dribble drives.

Two Point Percentage (2p%): This is distinct from PP and FG% in that it tracks a players mid-range game and accuracy. Places like NBA Hot Spots has already started the movement in this direction.

Plus/Minus (+/-): This is a more helpful stat when viewed over time, but it is an increasingly common (NBA.com, Yahoo! Sports) way to gauge a player's contribution to team play, as Dan Rosenbaum explains:

But the statistic du jour in the N.B.A. - the plus-minus statistic - offers an opportunity to remedy many drawbacks of the traditional box score, even if it is limited. More teams are now using plus-minus as an important part of their front-office work.
In their most common form, plus-minus statistics measure how a team performs when a given player is on the floor versus when he is on the bench. When Stephon Marbury is on the floor, the Knicks lose by 0.1 points per 48 minutes. Put Marbury on the bench and the Knicks lose by 12.7 points. Marbury's net impact is a positive 12.6 points per 48 minutes.
Because plus-minus statistics depend on team performance, they capture almost every contribution a player can make. The good pick, the solid help defense, the threat of a 3-point shooter - all these contributions are captured by net plus-minus statistics. In theory, they are an ideal measure of a player's effectiveness.

Gretzskys (GRZ): The hockey assist. The pass before the pass that leads to the basket. This is an extremely helpful measure in determining a players overall contribution to sharing the ball with his teammates, or, as some like to say, "playing the right way." In terms of the ability of statistics to shape young players, here is one quantifiable way to encourage the proverbial "extra pass."

Points Assisted (PAST): Points assisted is a subtle, but useful alternative to the standard dime. First, it would reflect total points created by assists, including the "extra" point that comes with assisting a 3 pointer and points scored of free throws made from And-1 situations and passes that would have been an assist, if not for an intervening foul. Put differently, it would give a sense of things like effective kick outs, ball reversals, and timely, well placed passes on post entries and fast breaks.

Deflections (DFL): With this stat, we start to come full circle in terms of Bruce Bowen. Basic stats need to do a better job of accounting for defense, and here is a start. How many times did a player disrupt the opponent's offense by getting a hand on the ball? Among other things, this is a simple indicator of defensive energy and activity.

Blocks Against (BA): This is a common European stat and is included in NBA.com box scores. It's telling, especially if you're a Bobcats fan.

Offensive Fouls Drawn (OFD): 82Games.com has summoned the call here and everyone would do well to follow their lead. How many times does a defender draw an offensive foul, either by staying in front of his man or rotating in front of someone else's? To my mind, this is a must have defensive measure. Take one subset example: charges drawn. Charges drawn is more helpful as a defensive measurement than, say, steals, which we've tracked since before bread came sliced. Players (see Iverson, Allen or Hughes, Larry) often rack up steals by abandoning their man and rushing a passing lane, or by wandering outside the mandates of their defensive schemes. These bad habits looks nice on a stat sheet. Unfortunately, the stat sheet doesn't record the common result of leaving your man to rush a passing lane--namely, an easy basket for the other team as the abandoned offensive player cuts directly to the hoop. OFDs would actually measure the opposite, the good defensive practice of staying with one's man and playing within the defense.

Defensive Fouls Drawn (DFD): In other words, how often does a player force the defense into fouling them? Keeping this Spurs-related, we've touched on this as a key to George Hill's early success.

Opponent's Field Goal Percentage (OFG%): This is the Bruce Bowen stat, and is not to be confused with team field goal percentage. What shooting percentage does a defender hold his man to through out a game? In other words, if Tracy McGrady shoots 3-8 while Bowen defends him but improves to 3-4 against Roger Mason, we should have some way to quantify this. Over his career, Bowen has achieved defensive excellence by forcing his opponents into difficult, well-contested shots. Or, as is often the case, Bowen bothers his opponent by not ceding ground. So, if Rip Hamilton likes to shoot off a screen and curl at 17 ft., Bowen occupies the space at 17, forcing Hamilton into a curl and catch at 19 ft. instead. The combination of this and OFDs would give us a way to accurately quantify individual defense.

The Screen-Assist (SA): This is new to me, but was provocatively suggested by Kevin Arnovitz. The ability to set solid screens is a crucial skill that is not represented in current box scores. But oh boy would Charley Rosen be excited if more big man learned to value this as an important aspect of their games.

Adjusted Game Score (AGS): This is a forthcoming John Hollinger stat that basically amounts to an unconsolidated, game by game PER. How efficient was Player X in only tonight's game? If LeBron James put up 40, 10 and 10 against the Knicks, what would his PER be for that game? This is the adjusted game score. Helpful stuff from John Hollinger, as usual.

I understand that there are problems with some of these stats or that there may be other or more helpful ways to quantify contributions, which is why I invite our readers to critique these suggestions or add their own in the comments. For example, opponent's field goal percentage coud be a misleading indicator if the sample size was isolated. In other words, a player's percentage for a given game might be down because of injury or a funk and have little to do with his primary defender. So, it's a stat that would require the backdrop of a large sample to be a reliable indicator. But this is the case with most numbers. Charlie Villanueva is not a likely candidate to drop 50, despite one random sign.

Would Bruce Bowen have won DPOY if some of these stats were available at the height of his powers? Maybe, maybe not. Sometimes advanced stats are as surprising in what they disprove as what they prove. I certainly think that players like Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, Kurt Thomas and Anderson Varejao would be more appreciated if we had better measures of their unique contributions.

Whatever the case, when Bowen finally hangs it up, the Spurs faithful will remember him as a game-changing cog in the championship machine. Bowen's defense was dominant and indispensable, even if there are not measurements available to substantiate the claim. Last season this coffin was nailed shut for me during the Conference Semifinals against New Orleans. The Hornets had spanked the Spurs in 800 kinds of ways, winning by 18 and 19 to take a 2-0 series lead in the opening games. In those games, Peja Stojakavic torched the Spurs for 47 points (60 FG%, 63 3pt%). Bowen was guarding Chris Paul during each of those contests. For the remaining 5 games of the series, Popovich placed Bowen on Peja and the tide of the entire series turned. Over the balance of the series, Stojakavic scored only 43 points (45 FG%, 33 3pt%)---a drop off of nearly 15 points per game and a staggering shooting percentage shift of minus 15 and 30%, respectively. In the first two contests Stojakavic averaged 12 shot attempts per game as compared to only 7 in the back five. Not only did Bowen dramatically reduce his man's shooting percentage, he played him so tight that it was difficult for Peja to simply find space from which to shoot.

Some smart readers will ask, "How can we know for certain that Bowen guarded Stojakavic on these shot attempts? How do we know that he didn't miss shots against Mike Finley on switches or that Ime Udoka was responsible for chasing the 3 point specialist off the arc?" Good question. We can't, and that's sort of my point. But for the record Bowen hounded Stojakavic for the majority of those shots, and he was remarkable. In one sense, he was the series MVP. It's a shame that there aren't better tools to aid our appreciation and memories of these moments.

(HT: Much of this post is collected from memory, and I've appropriated many of the suggestions from elsewhere, whether article, blog post, bar stool, or message board thread. I'm pushing a conversation, but the talking points are not my own.)

The Notebook: Bucks -Spurs, 12-30-08

2008-12-31T10:40:00.000-08:00

So the Bucks have some crazy voodoo on San Antonio. They're now 12-10 against the Duncan-led Spurs. Why? Maybe Herb Kohl is sticking sharp little pins into a dolled fashioned after the likeness of Gregg Popovich, but I tend to agree with Frank Madden: it's a meaningless coincidence. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

The story of this game is that the Spurs were demolished on the boards 29-43. As a team, they collected a mere 3 offensive rebounds. Slice it anyway you want to, but that's pathetic. The Spurs were lucky to scrap back into the game in the 4th quarter, but anyone who saw the game knows Milwaukee was their better for most the night.

For me, the game is helpful talking point for a more crucial topic: currently, this is a mediocre basketball team. Honestly, I don't think they are as good as their 20-11 record suggests. Of their 31 games, 5 victories are by 3 points or less, two of which were on final, have as much validity as a coin flip, shots. The Spurs have won a remarkable three games by way of double overtime. They've beat Dallas, Denver, Houston, Utah, and Phoenix, but those teams were at varying degrees of strength. They're yet to beat an elite team. Sorry Denver, Dallas, Houston, Utah, and Phoenix, but that ain't you.

Sometimes analysis isn't rocket science, and that's the case here. The Spurs have simply been inconsistent in basic areas of play. Regarding this game, Popovich said, “I’ll have to look at the film, but a lot of it was missed assignments; especially in the first half." This game is not terribly unique in that regard. Beyond rotations, the Spurs have not been a great rebounding team this season, as we wrote about earlier in the year. Last night was a fine example of this fact. But we can be a little more specific in our analysis, while still giving something of helicopter view.

Fab Oberto and Ian Mahinmi are injured, giving the Spurs a thin front court. And while someone like Oberto is not a monster on the boards, raw stats don't account for things like boxing out an opposing player or how his presence on the court allows others to space themselves around the hoop. Oberto, for all his lack of athleticism, is a gifted passer and the Spurs get higher percentage looks when he is in the game. If the league tracked hockey assists--the pass that led to the assist--Oberto would be a box score champ. Mahinmi is a wild card, but I don't think there is any question he would help. That's who's not playing.

Of the bigs who were on the court, Bonner and Tolliver are perimeter players. When one's job is to provide spacing with set shot 3s, it's hard to clean the glass. Kurt Thomas is a fine rebounder, but the Spurs have been utilizing his reliable pick and pop game. In other words, he often finds himself at 15 -17 ft, removed from the immediate vicinity of the basket. We're writing about Tim Duncan's role in all of this for an upcoming post, but suffice to say he is spending much more time away from the hoop this season. Offensively, Duncan's post play has been displaced by a heavy reliance on mid-range jumpers. His post game is as potent as ever--Popovich is simply preserving his body for the post season by limiting Duncan's low block brutalization. Time will tell if this is wise maneuver. In comparison to last season, his rebounding average is down from 11.3 to 10.2. This is really not a reflection of a drop in athleticism. He's just further from the hoop. Finally, after a torrid start, Matt Bonner is regressing toward the mean. Last night he had 2 boards in 18 minutes, a stat which speaks for itself.

Last night's game provided a window into other red flag story lines, but we'll have to save those for later posts. Gregg Popovich is fond of telling his team that each game is an opportunity to improve upon the last and that they play the season to be better by the end of the season. The Spurs, famously, peak after March. So it's no surprise that they're mired in the middle with plenty of room to improve at the end of December. Still, we'd like to see these kinks resolved sooner than later.

Update: John Hollinger's just posted analysis also suggests that the Spurs are mediocre. He paints a grim picture going forward--too grim, in fact, for me to support. Despite my concerns, I still give San Antonio even odds to win their division. Pop is a great coach, this is veteran squad known for peaking late, and most of their problems can be fixed. But, supposing Hollinger is correct, Spurs fans will be relieved to know the pick we gave to OKC for Kurt Thomas is lottery protected. Nevertheless, we're still a hellalotta paces removed from the "who are the best draft prospects?" cliff.

The Spurs, the Farm Team, and the Fan

2008-12-30T06:42:00.000-08:00

I want to take a few moments to attach a follow up comment to yesterday's TrueHoop, Malcolm Gladwell, and Malik Hairston post.

The Austin Toros are a good basketball team. This will sound controversial to some, but they have more talent on their roster than most, if not all, D1 programs. The Toros are not alone, if you look over the rosters of most NBDL teams, you'll find a who's who list of former high school and collegiate phenoms. The Spurs push the Toros further than this because of their insistence to play their end-of-the-bench NBA talent in Austin--i.e. Ian Mahinmi, Anthony Tolliver and Malik Hairston.

Last season, the Toros advanced to the NBDL Finals, but lost. This season they have a record of 10-3, with what many would consider the most talented roster in the league. As I've mentioned elsewhere, the Spurs impose themselves on the Toros in every way, including the shared expectation to win. Fans are always quick to highlight the more pious sounding aspects of Spurs culture, such as hard work, humility, and perseverance. Those are all present, thankfully, But a core tenant of Spurs culture, unspoken as it may be, is that the team will compete for championships. Winning is part of the dogma. The Toros, then, are not satisfied to be the lap dog of big brother Spur. They're drinking the Kool-Aid; they're the class of their league too.

The upshot of all this is that the fans really do have something good to cheer for in Austin. The games are worth watching, the team is a winner, and some of the players will stick with San Antonio for several seasons. In other words, investing oneself in, say, Malik Hairston may lead to bar stool conversation a half a decade from now when you proudly bore everyone with your memories of "when Malik sunk that shot against the Albuquerque Thunderbirds." "Even back then," you'll say, "I knew--really, really knew--that this kid had something." In business terms, the Spurs approach to their D-League affiliate puts the best possible product on the floor for their clients.

Dan Reed, NBDL president, is quick to note that putting a good product on the floor in Austin not only advances the Toros brand but it helps the Spurs as well. Writing about the 3rd team to own their affiliate, the Thunder, Reed makes a strong point that largely, if not completely, applies to the Spurs-Toros relationship:

In addition to all of the basketball-related benefits that all NBA teams love, I think what OKC sees that perhaps other NBA team owners have overlooked or undervalued is the business opportunity inherent to owning and operating your own team in the NBA D-League. Clay Bennett has gone on record in saying that he wants the OKC team to represent all of Oklahoma, not just Oklahoma City. And while his lease with the Ford Center doesn't allow him to play OKC games all over the state, by owning and operating the Tulsa 66ers he has the opportunity to extend the "OKC" brand and experience to the 2nd largest market in Oklahoma, which allows him to grow his fan base, provide a greater level of value to his marketing partners, and open up new revenue streams. He has good reason to believe in this, as the business of the NBA D-League is flourishing - our team valuations have quadrupled over the past two years, in part because of the 20% increase in attendance and the 40% increase in team sponsorship revenues we saw this past season.

The model the Spurs are inventing in Austin is rife with positive business-basketball symbiosis. Let me give one final example, and then I'll be done. Yesterday I noted this comment from Shamsports.com:

San Diego State legend Mohammed Abukar's career has taken a turn for the better, as he was unsigned until about 24 hours ago, when he was picked up by the Austin Toros of the D-League. Quietly, the San Antonio Spurs have managed to stash basically every one of their training camp signings on their D-League affiliate (which they own), as well as their former draft pick Marcus E. Williams. Owning your own affiliate seems to have some merit when the allocation players are handed out.

The Spurs spent a little extra cash in training camp this summer, bringing in a collection of fringe NBA players and overseas professionals. The result was a hotly contested camp. The Spurs have two incentives to move beyond the all too typical process of inviting a collection of practice bodies to training camp. First, their cap constraints place an onus on unearthing affordable, under the radar talent. But second, and perhaps more importantly, the camp allows them to scout for Austin-bound talent. In a related way, team scouts are now getting much more value from their day-to-day efforts. They are no longer simply scouting for the Spurs upcoming draft. The Toros, remember, have a roster that needs to be filled out as well. Dan Reed put it this way:

One NBA GM who owns an NBA D-League team (I'm protecting my source, so flip a coin), told me that one of his biggest surprises was the additional benefits that it provided from a scouting perspective. For one, neither the Spurs nor the Lakers have to ever send scouts to NBA D-League games - all the top prospects come to them for their home games! The Lakers and Spurs probably have the closest thing to "perfect information" on all of the players in the D-League, because the coaches of the D-Fenders and Toros - who are preparing game plans and breaking down matchups - are also their employees. Also, their college scouting efforts are improved, because now instead of scouting for one or two draft picks per year, they are scouting for up to 12 "roster slots" (2 for the NBA team, 10 for their NBA D-League team). You could see this in action to some extent with the Spurs last season, as they not only fielded an excellent team with the Toros this past season, but were very aggressive in utilizing the NBA D-League to find an additional swingman for the Spurs - calling up Keith Langford, Marcus Williams, and Jeremy Richardson before ultimately settling on DerMarr Johnson for their playoff run.

Taken altogether, the Spurs ownership of the Toros, and the care they provide for players like Malik Hairston, is to the benefit of their fan base. And in fact, the relationship between San Antonio and Austin is strong justification for the people of Austin to assemble and proudly support the Toros. They wouldn't be watching in vein, and they certainly wouldn't be cheering for crap. The Austin Toros are the San Antonio Spurs of the NBDL, and in more ways than we could number.

At Center Court with Frank Madden

2008-12-30T05:37:00.000-08:00

Over the past few days, I've been talking with friends about Mark Cuban's call to save the Titanic---eh, I mean your local dead tree edition's sports section. I could wax poetic about all the advantages talent-rich, dedicated blogs have over beat writers in terms of the quality of coverage (although, not in terms of their accessibility to the team; in short, I think this is a medium issue, and newspapers writers are severely handicapped because of the medium-imposed constraints of paper) or I could simply ask: If you lived in Milwaukee and were given a choice between Frank Madden's Brew Hoop or the Journal Sentinel, where would you go for Bucks coverage? Me too. I haven't pointed my browser directly toward the MJS for a couple years.

The Bucks travel into San Antonio tonight and Frank was kind enough to take time out of his holiday schedule to join us at Center Court.

TV: The Bucks always seem to play Popeye to the Spurs' Bluto. San Antonio has a losing record against Milwaukee during the Tim Duncan era. Why do you think the Bucks have fared so well against the Spurs?

FM: I don't think there's a good answer for it. The Bucks have had little continuity over the past decade and they've been bad for the majority of that period, so there's no obvious thing they've had going for them. A number of close games have gone the Bucks' way and earlier this year they caught the Spurs playing shorthanded, so luck is probably the biggest factor. One of the best games I've ever seen live was probably the Bucks' OT win over the Spurs in 05/06 when Bogut hit a game-winner at the buzzer.

TV: Sen. Kohl calls you into office and asks, "Frank, what's the most sensible thing to do with Michael Redd? Is he a better player than trade chip or trade chip than player?

FM: That's really the big question for the Bucks right now, because Redd's on court performance has bottomed out of late (18.5 ppg, .397 fg%)...and his contract made him a difficult guy to trade even when he was producing at a high level. The market will always be limited for a player with such a big cap number—including this season he's owed $51 million over three years—and this summer there didn't seem to be any team aside from Cleveland that was seriously interested. The Bucks reportedly turned down a deal for expiring contracts and draft picks, which in hindsight doesn't look so bad now. At this point I don't think John Hammond would hesitate to pull the trigger if he got a fair offer talent-wise, but a Cleveland-like salary dump doesn't get the Bucks under the cap next summer or in 2010 either.

The only possible explanation for Redd's decline is the high ankle sprain that kept him on the shelf for nearly a month early in the season, but that excuse only goes so far. He has appeared at times limited in his ability to slash and finish around the hoop, but he's struggling with wide open perimeter shots as well. To his credit, his defensive effort and passing have improved in recent weeks, but a guy like Redd doesn't earn his money that way—he needs to be scoring efficiently if he's going to be a star-caliber player. So far he's not. The Bucks would be foolish not to be shopping him, but they might not be able to get anything of use until his play picks up again. It all comes down to whether there's a team out there that can both stomach his salary and thinks he can get back to where he was a couple years ago.

TV: Why is Luke Ridnour starting in front of Ramon Sessions?

FM: Three weeks ago I would have said it was mainly a function of Scott Skiles' perpetual distrust of young players, but Ridnour has been playing better of late while Sessions has shown some of the inconsistency you'd expect out of a young player. Still, Skiles has spoken of liking Ridnour's game for years, so it's probably not surprising that he's stuck with him despite a mountain of statistical evidence arguing for Sessions to get his shot.

Like most Bucks fans I would like to see Sessions getting more consistent burn, but he still has lapses defensively and that's the one thing Skiles doesn't tolerate. Ridnour doesn't have Sessions' physical tools or craftiness in the lane, but he's been around the block and Skiles knows what he's going to get from him. Unfortunately, Ridnour has coninued to struggle from the perimeter (29.7% threes) this year, which should be one area where he has a distinct advantage over Sessions. Especially with Bogut getting doubled more often, the Bucks need their guards to make jump shots and space the floor, but only Lue (in limited minutes) has been a three-point threat among the PGs.

I have to think that Sessions' superior talent level means that he'll get his shot eventually, but Skiles doesn't seem to be in a hurry to put that sort of pressure on him. Perhaps not coincidentally, that will probably make him cheaper to re-sign next summer as well. Still, Charlie Bell's health and Tyronn Lue's possible departure via trade mean Sessions could be seeing more time soon even if Ridnour hangs on to the starting spot.

TV: Yes or no, is Charlie Villanueva a Buck come February?

FM: I would say no—though I felt the same way a year ago when Villanueva lost his starting job to Yi Jianlian, and we all know how that worked out. It's not that Villanueva hasn't been a key contributor this year. His scoring ability off the bench has been a big boost for a team that struggles to score, his rebounding has been well above average for a PF, and his defensive effort has been more consistent. Still, I just don't see the Bucks wanting to commit long-term dollars to him this summer when he enters restricted free agency. Charlie doesn't really fit the Scott Skiles archetype (tough, defensive, consistent) and his occasional offensive explosions have always obscured the fact that he's a streaky, low efficiency scorer.

For a proper game preview, stop by Brew Hoop.

Update: I thought it was common knowledge that the Spurs struggle against the Bucks, but apparently not. By my count, San Antonio is 10-11 against Milwaukee since Duncan was drafted. The two teams did not play one another during the strike season. The total games are at an odd number because they've only played once this season, a 78-82 Spurs loss.

TrueHoop, Malcolm Gladwell, and Malik Hairston

2008-12-29T07:07:00.000-08:00

Back on December 11, TrueHoop ran a bullet commenting on a New Yorker article by Malcolm Gladwell. In response to the article, Henry Abbott wrote:

...in professions like picking NFL quarterbacks or good teachers, it is nearly impossible to know who will succeed until you see them try. That means that the best way to find good ones, long term, is to try a lot of them and weed out the bad ones. I'm thinking the same line of thinking could be used in finding NBA players. If you tried it, you'd expand rosters with more inexpensive players. This could work in conjunction with the D-League, which could offer minutes to some of those players, especially the ones who weren't killing it in the NBA.

Abbott subsequently attached this addendum to the comment:

TrueHoop reader Brad e-mails: "Isn't what you recommend based on his [Gladwell's] findings exactly what the Spurs are doing? They bought a D-League team (Austin Toros, 90 minutes up I-35), and as 48 Minutes of Hell wonderfully explicate, the brilliant San Antonio management uses 10-day contracts like ongoing job interviews. They stash and/or farm young guys and bring them up every so often to see how they react. Even if they won't be playing this year, they're grooming them in the "Spurs Character" (not to mention Pop's basketball) system, so that next year, or the year after that, they will be more than ready -- and management will have seen who fits and who doesn't. Remarkable stuff, and this has been going on now for the last couple of years!"

TrueHoop reader Brad is a smart fella, and we thank him for drawing attention to our efforts to showcase the paradigm-shifting nature of the Spurs efforts in Austin. This is a Spurs blog, but we keep a close eye toward Austin, and precisely because we see the Toros as a fully-integrated part of the Spurs. The Toros, or at least their prominent players, are an extension of the San Antonio bench. Coach Quin Synder and his staff are an extension of Popovich. Dell Demps, who is with the Spurs front office, is the GM of the Toros. One is not fully covering the Spurs without paying attention to the Toros. Events in the the last week have provided a case study for the Spurs use of Austin as an "extended interview."

On December 15, the Spurs waived guard Blake Ahearn. Ahearn had been called up from the Dakota Wizards on November 16, just after the NBDL camps had started. In his month with the Spurs, he played in a couple parent club games before being assigned to Austin, where he played in another 6 contests before getting the axe. In other words, the Spurs signed Ahearn to audition him in Austin. I suspect the Spurs were sincere in their interest in Ahearn, but ultimately released him because they did not see him as a long term fit---maybe because of his questionable ability to defend at the NBA level.

Ahearn is not our case study, but I raise him as an introductory example to provide a segue. The Spurs dedicate their 14th and 15th roster spots to Austin and are bent on identifying players whom can eventually help the Spurs--rotation quality players, not suit-wearing end of the bench types. We're not going to discuss him in this post, but Anthony Tolliver is the Spurs current 14th man and has seen rotation minutes with the Spurs and a stint in Austin this season. This of course also says nothing of Ian Mahinmi, who is an important part of the conversation.

In this sense, the Spurs have basically eliminated their inactive list. They have an injured list and an active in Austin list. They don't let their prospects collect dust. This is true in the sense that they are always playing or practicing (Toros), but also in the sense that the Spurs are willing to burn through audition player after audition player until they find someone who is a legitimate stick. A few years down the line, we'll have a better sense of this. But perhaps in every 15 Austin interviewees, the Spurs will find one guy who lasts with the parent club. Or some such. You get the idea. Ahearn has been weeded out, Tolliver is in question, Mahinmi is in waiting (injury), and Hairston's got next.

It's curious to me that the Spurs are seeking to find in Austin what they've already found in Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka and Roger Mason. That is, role players who have proved their worth by coming up through the minor league ranks. Players who find their way through a process of hard work and humility. In other words, whether or not a player will fit into "Spurs culture" is an important part of the equation. From what I can tell, the equations has three parts: is the player a cultural fit, does he fill an eventual need for the Spurs, and does he produce on the job, following Gladwell. Culture, need, performance. The Spurs want to surround their 3 stars with hard working role players who will run through a wall to help the team succeed.

Back to the point: our case study is Malik Hairston. As most Spurs fans know by now, Hairston was signed by the Spurs on the 22, just after winning NBDL Player of the Week honors. We've been watching Hairston carefully and were not surprised to learn of his new contract. We started painting his Spurs back story just after training camp, which you can read about here. On November 19 we wrote:

There is more hope for Malik Hairston, who will open his professional career as temporary property of the Austin Toros. He spent training camp with the Spurs and showed promise. Too bad for the Spurs, however, any team in the league will have opportunity to give Hairston a call up. This is likely. The people over at Draft Express put it this way:
Malik Hairston could very well be the first player called up by an NBA team, as soon as one injury or another happens and the need for a versatile swingman arises. He has an NBA body already to go along with nice physical tools, an advanced skill-set, and excellent intangibles to boot. It was surprising to say the least to see San Antonio decide to keep Desmon Farmer over him, but if Hairston can show improved ball-handling skills and the ability to defend both wing positions effectively, his stay in Austin should not be very long.
The Spurs will not have a first round pick in the 2009 draft. Their ability to fill gaps in the quickly eroding small forward wall will have to come through free agency, a trade, or the D-League. As we will see in a future post, this is not a simple task given the Spurs assets and cap situation. But for now, there is good reason to cheer for Hairston.

On December 13, we updated our readers on Hairston's progress:

Malik Hairston continues to intrigue. In this contest he was 8-11 from the field, ending the night with 25, 7, 7, 2, and 1. In college, Hairston displayed a decent three point stroke, improving each season and finishing at a respectable 43%. Since joining the NBDL, he is shooting 71%, but on only 8 attempts. In his final season at Oregon he attempted .34 three pointers per field goal attempt as compared to .10 as a Toro. Conversely, his free throw attempts have improved from .41 to .59 per FGA. In other words, Hairston is making a concerted effort to put the ball on the floor and get to the hoop. This is great considering his FT% is on a 10% rise (now at 83%). Quietly, Hairston has become a more efficient, better-rounded basketball player. During his preseason stint with the Spurs he looked unsure of himself on offense, but this is slowly changing. Development League, indeed.

In some sense, Hairston has been the Spurs 16th man since October. For those of us keeping score, he was drafted by San Antonio, summer leagued and camped with them, accepted allocation to the Toros, and now occupies a space on their official roster. Hairston has been with the Spurs since June, under the tutelage of their coaches and trainers, playing in their system the entire time. Of Hairston's signing, Gregg Popovich said, "Malik was doing well enough that I think other people were starting to get interested. We wanted to make sure we didn't lose him."

At the front of this post we quoted Henry Abbott imagining a situation wherein teams could see players succeed through trial and error, had the ability to weed through multiple applicants, and were able to expand their rosters and offer minutes to promising youngsters. I know what you're thinking: San Antonio Spurs, Austin Toros, Malik Hairston. And you're correct. That's exactly right.

There is no guarantee that Hairston will stick long term with the Spurs. If, for example, a trade brought back two for one, the Spurs might have to bite the bullet and free up roster space by waiving him. But with the ages and contract situations of Mike Finley, Ime Udoka and Bruce Bowen, one can see a number of scenarios wherein Hairston not only sticks, but significantly contributes to the future of the Spurs.

After signing his contract, by the way, Hairston spent a mere two days behind the Spurs bench before being re-assigned to the Toros. You can't become a better player in a suit. If Hairston lasts through the season, he has a solid chance of being in the Spurs rotation next season. Without slighting Ime Udoka, Hairston could probably approximate Udoka's current production, even now. By next season, he should be able to meet or exceed it. And, unlike a free agent signing, Hairston will be completely assimilated into Spurs culture and have a year in the system before being asked to do anything meaningful for San Antonio. It's a great model for development. Not only do the Spurs have the luxury of carefully identifying and nurturing those players who can succeed, Hairston is put in a position where success is a reasonable expectation.

We could say more, but that will have to suffice for now.

Update: It looks as if we're not the only ones who see a pattern emerging. Sham from Shamsports.com, chimes in with this comment from a recent post:

San Diego State legend Mohammed Abukar's career has taken a turn for the better, as he was unsigned until about 24 hours ago, when he was picked up by the Austin Toros of the D-League. Quietly, the San Antonio Spurs have managed to stash basically every one of their training camp signings on their D-League affiliate (which they own), as well as their former draft pick Marcus E. Williams. Owning your own affiliate seems to have some merit when the allocation players are handed out.

Match-Up of the Night: Mayo vs. Ginobili

2008-12-27T15:14:00.000-08:00

Although I would argue Derrick Rose is actually the most skilled member of this most recent rookie class, the most electrifying to watch is clearly O.J. Mayo. I never thought he was all that special of a prospect in college: Sure, he had all the athletic talent in the world but I never saw him translate that athleticism into the on-court theatrics we have seen so far this season. Without a doubt the most brilliant maneuver by the Memphis front office in recent history is the decision to trade Kevin love for Mayo (I saw Love on Tuesday when the Timberwolves lost to the Spurs in SA. Love, a future role player at best, possesses nowhere near the talent nor the intensity that Mayo has).

Mayo is also the key to any chance the Grizzlies have to win a game against the Spurs. San Antonio has had a tendency to play down to its competition. The Spurs' slow pace of play and Popovich's incessant roster tweaking oftentimes make it hard for the silver and black to put away teams they should be beating easily. From what I can tell, there is nothing Mayo thrives on more than late game drama. If the Spurs allow the Griz to stay within striking distance, young Mr. Mayo's hot hand may be able to deliver an upset.

Coming of the opposing bench is the wily Argentinean. Although my love for Manu knows no bounds, his return to the squad so far this season has been slightly underwhelming. Statistically, he is down in almost every category from last year: PPG, FT%, FG%, 3PT%. At first I thought some of these statistical slides (in particular PPG) were because Popovich has been giving Manu significantly less court time in the wake of his surgery (He is averaging 25.6 minutes per game compared to last season's 31).

But a look at Hollinger's PER reveals that Ginobili's efficiency is down significantly. Last season he logged an impressive 24.07 PER (second only to Kobe Bryant). This season his PER sits at 19.87. It is still the sixth best in the league for shooting guards, but hardly as gaudy an efficiency rating as he was able to attain last year.

Yes, Manu is not as explosive as he once was but that does not explain it all. During his entire tenure with the Spurs Manu has played with a reckless abandon that is absolutely infectious. This season I have only felt the effects of such glorious infections every so often. Against a team like Memphis is an excellent opportunity for the sickness to rediscover his deadly potency.

Joe Smith? Yes, please.

2008-12-27T11:27:00.000-08:00

Earlier this week, I voted to pass on the prospect of Dikembe Mutombo joining the Spurs. Steve Bulpett has pushed that conversation forward by reporting the Celtics are no longer in the Mutombo sweeps. This is interesting on a few fronts.

First, Mutombo has recently said his return was imminent, narrowing his options to San Antonio and Boston. However, if Boston is no longer in the running, one might assume that Mutombo is a Spur-in-waiting. This might be true, but I suspect not. Why?

The Bulpett report also includes this tidbit:

Alonzo Mourning’s name is still being floated, but an even more intriguing property could be available soon. There is talk Oklahoma City may buy out Joe Smith’s contract, and that the club is at least serious about trading him.

The Celtics can’t and won’t discuss him publicly, but at a lanky 6-foot-10, Smith would seem to fit the club’s need.

Said one NBA scout, “Are you kidding me? Joe Smith would be perfect for the Celtics.”

If it's true that OKC is nearing a buy-out of Joe Smith, then San Antonio is in no rush to sign Dikembe Mutombe. Joe Smith would be perfect for the Celtics, I have no doubt. But he would also fit very nicely in San Antonio. 48MH has often noted that the Spurs lack a frontcourt player who can guard the likes of Dirk Nowitzki and David West. Smith may not be a prototype in this regard, but he's certainly a help. His ability to score in a high pick and roll setting, rebounding, and veteran know-how would seem an ideal compliment to the Spurs current cast of bigs.

One of my objections to signing Dikembe Mutombo is that his presence would impede the growth of Ian Mahinmi and hamper the Spurs efforts in Austin. The Spurs should be willing, however, to bite those bullets in exchange for a player who is a decade younger than Deke. Smith is still a productive player and would constitute a major upgrade. The loss of Anthony Tolliver, Malik Hairston, or, improbably, Jacque Vaughn is easy to accept in exchange for Joe Smith.

Unfortunately, Joe Smith might find the prospect of becoming a member of the league-leading Celtics more alluring than San Antonio. Whatever the case, it seems likely that if Bulpett's report is accurate, San Antonio and Boston will be among a short list of teams that make eyes with Smith. Let's hope he bats an eyelash, blushes, and blows a kiss back Alamo-way.

(HT: Jeff Clark of Celtics Blog)

At Center Court with Chip Crain

2008-12-27T06:38:00.000-08:00

I secretly heart the Memphis Grizzlies. Guilty pleasure. Divided loyalties. Innocent crush on a cousin. Eh, bad example. You know what I mean. They're a solid young club that could become a force. Their great weakness is their owner, and that is often difficult to overcome. I hope he sells the team and it moves to Las Vegas or London. But, as usual, I digress. 3 Shades of Blue's Chip Crain has met us At Center Court to answer a few questions about his beloved Grizzlies.

TV: I think it's Jeff Van Gundy who is fond of saying that it isn't Kwame Brown's fault that he was drafted #1 when he should have been drafted #15. I feel the same way about Darko Milicic. He's had good performances against the Spurs this season. Generally speaking, he's an above-average post defender with some ability to score. His main problems seem to be mental. What do you make of his game? Is he a long term fit in Memphis?

CC: Before I answer that question I would like to say Merry Christmas, Happy Chanukah, Joyous Kwanza, a general Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year to all of your readers. As a family man I love this time of the year and I truly hope everyone can share this time with their families and friends.

Darko is a potentially dynamic big man. His problem has always been that his head gets in the way of his game. He is a fantastic defensive player...at times. He can score...at times. He can do just about anything that a quality big man can do and he is only 23 years old and won't be 24 until June. It just seems like he should be much older because he was drafted into the NBA at 17. What people forget is Darko's really didn't play his first 3 years in the league and last season he played through a host of injuries that would have sidelined many a player. In many ways the rap on Darko is more an issue of maturity than talent.

Darko is Serbian and people here really don't appreciate what that means to him and what he has seen. Do a little research however and you will realize that Darko's past is filled with horrors we wouldn't want our children to hear about much less experience. Darko turned to basketball as an escape from a lot of things. When he came to the USA he had never started in Europe, was very raw and frankly crumbled under the pressure of Detroit fans. He was rejected in Orlando when he was a vital piece of the team and that hurt him as well. I think Darko reacted poorly to his benching earlier this season as well. However he has regained his starting spot and is a fixture in the Grizzlies lineup now. His performances have been improving as a reflection of that. Memphis has not been destroyed inside this season and a large reason for that has been Darko's play.

What is his future? I honestly don't know. His contract is up at the end of the 2010 season and whether or not the Grizzlies step up to pay him a lot of money is in doubt. Marc Gasol is just a few months older than Darko, Darrell Arthur is only 20 and has looked good at times this season. Hakim Warrick is a dynamic scorer and the Grizzlies still have three #1 picks in next two drafts. Will the cost-conscious Grizzlies want to pay Darko or not? Besides Darko has already commented that he would like to return to Europe in the future since he believes his offensive skills aren't being showcased properly in the NBA. If he continues to improve and outplay Gasol and Arthur then yes I believe the Grizzlies will pay him to stay. If not, then who knows?

TV: In my opinion, the Grizzlies need to find someone who can score 20 in the post and a new coach. Agree? Disagree? And if so, who and how, on both fronts?

CC: So you think the Grizzlies need someone who can score 20 points in the post? Can you tell me what team doesn't need someone like that? Of course the Grizzlies need a major force in the paint but there aren't a lot of those players lying around on people's benches with team's willing to trade them. You have to acquire those types of players in free agency or the draft. So far Memphis, despite having one of the worst records in the league the last 16 years, has never won the lottery. The trade of Pau Gasol was needed if the team wanted to rebuild with youth. Pau didn't want to be part of a rebuilding and his attitude has never been good as a leader. The Grizzlies would never be able to sign a big name free agent with Gasol making max money. He didn't have a leader's mentality and, frankly, his less than physical playing style was turning off Memphis fans.

The Grizzlies did draft Kevin Love and a lot of people felt he would be perfect in Memphis but at this point can anyone seriously say they wouldn't want OJ Mayo more? And, in what seems like a first, Memphis has tons of cap space. Will Memphis be able to sign someone? I think so. Josh Smith signed with Memphis this past summer only to see his contract immediately matched by Atlanta. The idea that free agents won't come to Memphis is just wrong. There are some interesting big men who will be FA's this summer and I expect the Grizzlies will make plays for one of them if they don't strike gold in the lottery.

As for Coach Iavaroni the answer is more difficult. Marc was brought to Memphis to take over a slow and aging team and to make them into the Phoenix Suns' fast paced offense. Surprisingly with Damon Stoudamire, Mike Miller, Pau Gasol and Darko Milicic in the starting lineup that didn't work too well. There was not a lot of speed on the court to run with. Then the Grizzlies decided to remake the entire team and go young with rookies Mayo, Arthur and Gasol joining Conley (21), Lowry (22), Gay (23) and Milicic (23) as the core of the team, with only Hakim Warrick (26) as a player in his prime among the top 8 players on the team. This team is built to run much more effectively but now the owner wants to play defense like Detroit instead. What coach could look good with that much turmoil and change happening around him? Iavaroni is holding onto his job right now and my prognosis is he will last until the end of the season simply because of the economics of the situation in Memphis. However, I don't have a lot of faith that he will maintain the job next season. Not because he can't coach but simply because someone is going to have to take the fall for another lousy season here. A new coach, especially one with a reputation for excellence could promote ticket sales, which is needed. Keeping Iavaroni won't do that in my opinion. This is a business after all. The question will come down to how well the team is responding to him, how much would it cost to fire him vs how much would the team make by replacing him and whether the team is still committed to enacting their 3 year plan.

TV: Chris Wallace: following the Gasol trade he earned the reputation of being incompetent or, at best, a lap dog for Micheal Heisley? In hindsight, the Gasol trade doesn't look too bad and he landed Mayo. What do you make of him?

CC: Funny you should mention Chris Wallace next. I was about to talk about him in the Iavaroni question. People may have forgotten this or not realized it to begin with but Wallace was hired after Iavaroni. Marc wasn't his choice as coach so that could also have an effect on Iavaroni's job security because Wallace is on relatively solid footing right now. If Wallace is going to end up taking the fall for the poorly received Gasol trade then he is probably going to want to fall with his coach on the bench.

People may not always see what Chris is thinking when deals go down but he is also not reviled either. The Gasol trade is a prime example of that. Memphis gave up an near all-star level talent to one of the most loved or reviled teams in the NBA depending on how you feel about the Lakers. What did they get for him? Kwame Brown, some Spaniard and Javaris Crittenton. That's how the pessimists saw it. In reality Wallace created cap space, got the Spanish League MVP in 23 yr old big man Marc Gasol (yes, Pau's brother) and a potential swing guard. Unfortunately, Crittenton couldn't get PT behind O J Mayo, so Wallace salvaged his losses by trading him for a Washington draft pick that Memphis had previously owned--it was actually a very shrewd move. Basically the Grizzlies couldn't trade a #1 pick away to acquire a player for 6 more years since it was possible that they owed that pick to Washington. But now, after reclaiming the pick in the Crittenton trade, Memphis has the ability to utilize that pick as an asset. Wallace has made some really smart moves so far as GM that havn't yet translated into wins but should down the line.

Of course Wallace also traded away Memphis' 2 best players in Mike Miller and Pau Gasol and has little to show for it so far. The fact that Memphis won 23 games in back to back seasons with Miller and Gasol as their stars should tell people that they weren't that important. Still fans grow attached to players, especially Mike Miller who was hugely popular in Memphis, so there has been a hit on ticket sales from these moves. That damage is seeming to diminish, however, as the young and hungry Grizzlies start impressing people.

I feel that Wallace is a draft genius but only a so-so trader. Of course, I don't get involved with the conversations between Heisley and Wallace so I don't know exactly what the plan is. His trades have caused alarm, but I think Wallace sees where he wants the team to go and is willing to drag the fans behind him. Whether that turns out to be smart or not won't be known for several seasons. Right now most people are convinced the trades Wallace made were in the best interest of the franchise.

TV: Why hasn't Mike Conley worked out?

CC: Mike Conley is starting to develop, but he was a risky pick at #4. So far he has to be described as a disappointment. Still, he has enormous potential. He came out of college after his freshman season and very few point guards develop who come directly out of college or after only one season in college. It is just a position that requires more development than others. Conley's recent demotion shouldn't be viewed as a statement of dissatisfaction with his play however. Mike is just a better scorer than Lowry and not as good a defender. The starting unit needed more defense and the bench needed more offensive punch. In this way, a Lowry/Conley switch made sense. Moving Mike to the 2nd team enabled the team a more balanced attacked throughout the game. Conley is still on the court at the end of most games so I still feel the ability to be a top level PG is there. It is important to remember that pass-first PG's need shooters around them to excel. Right now Memphis doesn't have enough true scorers. Once the team gets more developed then his true value should be more apparent. Conley is much improved on his shooting from his rookie season. By making his outside shot consistently, he forces defenders to guard him on the perimeter, which in turn opens up the court so his quick feet can scamper into the paint. Before people asked, why doesn't he get into the lane more often, but now people see him doing this and wonder if he'll learn to kick the ball out once he gets there. Once that starts happening then the question will be can he defend top line PG's at his size. Conley still has more questions than answers, but he is showing signs of progression.

What people have to realize is that Conley just turned 21. He's younger than O J Mayo and Marc Gasol, who are rookies. As with Darko and Rudy, fans need to be patient with Conley to allow him to develop into the player he will become. Patience is hard on fans so it is understandable how they want to label a 21 yr old PG who has played fewer than 82 games in his NBA career as a bust but if they hang with him and allow him the time to develop they will probably be pleased with the result. So it isn't that Conley hasn't worked out. It is more that Conley hasn't worked out yet.

TV: Steve Francis?

CC: Steve Francis: now that is a tough one. Wallace basically decided a 2nd rd pick now is worth more than a 2nd rd pick 3 years from now. Francis might be a great motivator for both of the Grizzlies young PG's (Lowry is only 22, by the way). He has skills that both PG's could learn from. Maybe he can still play but personally I think Francis probably came with enough cash to buy him out of his contract and the deal was to acquire a 2009 2nd rd pick for a 2011 2nd rd pick. Francis was the motivation for Houston to do the deal. By shedding his contract Houston fell beneath the Luxury Tax threshold, which means the Rockets can sign Mutombo for their playoff run. If Memphis is significantly better in 3 years (and the draft this year is better than I believe it is) then this is a smart deal for the Grizzlies. In short, a 2nd rd pick this year fits into the 3 year plan. The 2011 pick didn't.

Composure is Coached

2008-12-26T02:01:00.000-08:00

Reading through yesterday's post game quotes, two items caught my attention.

Amare Stoudemire said, “I think we played well enough to win. We played solid defensively, we rebounded the ball well, we played upside defense and did everything we could and had to, to win. Unfortunately, (Roger Mason) hit a three in the corner. It happens sometimes.” In a vacuum, this is correct. But the problem here is not a "sometimes" issue; this is an "all the time" issue. The game doesn't exist in a vacuum, and the Suns squandering opportunities to beat the Spurs is something of a running joke--the "that's what she said" of professional basketball. I'm obviously a Spurs guy, so I get a perverse joy from listening to the record skip. If I were a Phoenix fan, however, I'd be angry, but not at the Spurs. That's too easy. At some point, Phoenix fans just have to call their team out for not having the gall/guile/moxie/dial-a-cliche--balls?--to put the Spurs down. Let's move beyond the tired whiz-bang machinery of excuse-making. It's time. Bruce Bowen has left the building.

This leads to the second quote. Speaking of a moment late in the game, Tim Duncan reports, "That was a specific line that he (Popovich) used, ‘it will probably come down to one play in this game’ and it did come down to that." If one wonders how the Spurs manage to devastate the Suns with such frequency, this is undoubtedly part of the equation. Pop coaches composure into his squad; he allows them to prepare for the big moment minutes before it arrives. Popovich may not be a Zen Master, but he is a masterclass coach. This is a classic example of that psychological aspect of elite coaching which separates the gold from the dross. Or, if you will, this is the thing that separates the Spurs from the Suns.

The Notebook: Peace on Earth, good will toward men

2008-12-25T14:42:00.000-08:00

Absolutely nothing in this world brings a broader smile to the face of your humble author than when the San Antonio Spurs defeat the Phoenix Suns. And rest assured, my smile stretches ear to ear because the Spurs toppled the Suns in Phoenix this very merry Christmas day. Although the Spurs took a very narrow lead during the 3rd, the Spurs trailed for the majority of the contest. But some lock-down defense by the silver and black, as well as some last second heroics by Roger Mason Jr. helped send the boys in black back to SA with a signature win over a hated rival.

In all honesty, the game started very poorly for the Spurs as well as myself. The Magic were decimating the Hornets (which is actually a good thing), and I chose to take a nap in preparation for the big game. I awoke when I my father frustratedly noted that "we're getting whooped." In a sleepy, irritated haze I glanced at the TV to discover a 0-11 score in favor of the Suns. A number of my ex-girlfriends can attest to the notion that I am a real SoB when woken from a nap; tack on the fact that the Spurs were getting thoroughly handled by Phoenix and I was in as 'bout a bad a mood as I had been in all year.

My first reaction was "Phoenix Stan must have tipped Porter off." Recently Tim and I took part in a podcast hosted by Phoenix Stan of the excellent blog Bright Side of the Sun. During it Stan asked me what it would take to beat the Spurs. I told him they should crowd the lane, prevent penetration and dare us to make our 3-pointers (which I referred to as our "guilty pleasure.") Well, the Suns heeded my advice and forced the Spurs to take (and miss) long jumper after long jumper.

On the opposite end of the floor the Suns came out efficient and aggressive. The titanic frontcourt of the Suns made their presence known as Shaq and Amare scored 14 of the Suns first 17 points. Deep in the second quarter the Spurs went on and 8-0 run, cutting the lead to 4. The Spurs would enter the locker room at half down by 6.

The game would remain close for the next 24 minutes. In the early minutes of the 3rd quarter Duncan played excellent defense on Shaq, giving the Spurs the necessary stops to tie the game at 52 (and even briefly take a 54-52 lead). The Suns would again open up an 8 point lead at the beginning of the 4th but the Spurs would close the gap with 5:48 to play and never again allow the game to get out of hand.

With 1 minute left Parker committed a technical foul, sending Nash to the line where he tied the game 88-88. After missed layups by Amare (which was defended beautifully by Duncan) and Parker (who was absolutely fouled but didn't receive the call), the Suns came out of a timeout and run a beautiful backdoor screen to Grant Hill, taking the lead 90-88 with 4 seconds to play.

On the play Grant Hill inbounded the ball to Amare and immediately cut baseline where an awaiting Nash picked Finley, giving Hill the easy layup. Parker was covering Nash but failed to make the appropriate switch as Hill slid past and laid in what many thought would be the game winner.

With 4 seconds to go Finley inbounded the ball to Parker (who was guarded by Hill). Parker drove left but was unable to drive past Hill. Luckily, Jason Richardson collapsed on to Parker, leaving Roger Mason wide open in the corner. Parker completed the pass and Mason nailed the 3-pointer as the buzzer went off.

Although Parker played well (27 points, 10-23 from the field), the game ball goes to Tim Duncan, whose offensive consistency kept us afloat in the second quarter and whose impeccable defense put us in a position to win. In the closing minutes of the game both Manu and Parker missed layups but the Suns were unable to capitalize on the opportunity because Duncan played tremendous defense against Amare, who the Suns were relying on to make clutch shots down the stretch. Duncan hauled in highly contested rebounds, produced turnovers, and denied open looks, all while having 5 fouls. He also had a moment, simple yet telling, in which he dove to the ground in order to secure a loose ball. It was a tenacity I haven't seen from the big guy in a while and it was reassuringly beautiful to behold.

Make no mistake, defense won this game. The Spurs shot only 41.8% from the field, typically a percentage not high enough to topple a potent offensive force like the Suns (although no longer as meteoric as the D'Antoni days, this team still knows how to score some points). Another key to victory was the turnover differential: While Phoenix coughed the ball up 14 times, we allowed only 6 turnovers all game. We shot worse and hauled in less rebounds, but by protecting the ball and being aggressive on defense we gave ourselves the opportunity to win.

Let's be frank: the Spurs didn't play a great game. They showed a lot of poise down the stretch but in the closing minutes both Parker and Ginobili failed to make layups after the defense came up with stop after stop. In some ways beating the Suns on merely an OK day leaves room to be optimistic, but this team still gives the Spurs match-up problems and will not soon forget what happened in Arizona today. But now is not a time to worry about the future. Today is a day to be merry. Happy Holidays, Spurs fans.

Merry Christmas

2008-12-25T08:54:00.000-08:00

I had a rather lengthy post planned in which I was going to reflect upon the symbolism of the Suns-Spurs rivalry. Then I realized It's Christmas and nobody is going to be reading this so I'm going to save it for a day when there are actually people on the interwebs. [Insert obligatory "All I want for Christmas is a Spurs win" comment here]

At Center Court with Phoenix Stan

2008-12-25T03:00:00.000-08:00

Peace on earth. Good will toward men.

Sort of.

Earlier this week, Phoenix Stan of Bright Side of the Sun interviewed Graydon and myself for a podcast that was surprisingly cordial. We even--gasp--enjoyed ourselves. Strange, that. Phoenix fans and Spurs fans playing nicely. The Christmas spirit has imposed its glad tidings and good cheer all over our rightly thorny dispositions. It'll pass. But for now Stan joins us for a a little yuletide tit for tat at Center Court.

TV: How does it feel to lose to the same team time and time again? Why do you hate us so much?

PS: Wow. Do you guys have some kind of insecurity issues that you need to be loved? What's up with that?

To answer you questions. a) It blows. b) See answer a.

TV: Last summer, I went through a blasphemous stretch wherein I wondered if the time had come for the Spurs to move Manu Ginobili. At the time, he was the second best shooting guard on the planet, but hobbled by injury and likely to decline in value from that point forward. It made me sick to even think about a Manu-less existence, but sometimes the hard thing is the right thing. For a week or two, it made sense but then it passed. Have you had one of those moment's regarding Steve Nash? What will be the tell-tale sign that Kerr ought to pull the plug? Missing the playoffs? Locker room disintegrates? Mired in the middle?

PS: Trade Nash? Blasphemy!

Ok, now back to reality. I have thought about trading Nash and there's been some mild discussion about it. You can't help but wonder if his value in a trade will decline rapidly after this year. If, come trade deadline time, the Suns were clearly out of it, you would hear more of that talk. But I don't see it happening. The Suns are right there in the mix and the locker room appears to be in perfect harmony now that Bell and Diaw are gone. This new version of the Suns is the best so far this year and rapidly improving. Watch out!

One does hear a lot more talk about moving Amare. There's a lot of people that think he's never going to be a guy you can build a franchise around despite all his talent and desire. So do you consider moving him? What do you get back? Al Jefferson? Kevin Durant? That's really the problem when you get past the frustration of "will he ever reach potential?" There's really no player that makes sense coming back. You aren't going to get Wade or LeBron for him. Or Kobe. Or KG. Or Timmy for that matter (not that we would want him!).

But the fear in Phoenix is that after Nash and Shaq are gone then no matter what you do to build around Amare you will never have a championship team unless you get lucky in the draft and find a guard like Roy or Paul that can be the leader.

TV: What do you make of Shaq's resurgence and his demands for more touches? Shaq being Shaq or justified?

PS: Well, O'Neal is playing at an All-Star level and deserves more touches. I am NOT a Shaq fan and HATED the trade but there is no denying that Shaq is playing great this year. He should be getting touches but like everything its a balance. I choose not to interpret his most recent comments as a complaint but more of a statement of fact. He should get touches, especially early when he's freshest. Shaq can get opposing bigs into foul trouble and "soften" up the lane for J-Rich and Hill. Going to him early will keep Nash and Amare fresh and ready to close the game out.

When you think about it, the Suns offense is very deadly because we have the ability to score in any number of ways. I think the team chemistry issues and demanding the ball stuff will fade away as the group is successful together.

TV: The Suns are a better ball club with Jason Richardson. Shaq is playing his best basketball in years. In my estimation, Steve Kerr has done a good job in Phoenix from a trade value, cap-management standpoint. But it also seems like the players see him as Judas for attempting to turn the Suns into Spurs-lite. Is he destined to play the role of the hated "will never do right by us" executive for killing the glorious 7 Seconds or Less Suns?

PS: D'Antoni killed 7SOL last season even before the Shaq trade. He recognized that in order to win in the playoffs (beat the Spurs) the team needed to be able to score in the half court, get to the line, and keep Nash fresh. Then when he (Mikestache) pushed for the trade that sealed it.

As for Kerr, whether he's a Moron or Genius changes on a daily basis. That's why we created the Steve Kerr Moron Meter to track his accumulation of Genius and Moron Points.

The balance between when to run and when to slow it down has been a struggle and up until the J-Rich trade there was a schism in the locker room. Now--at least in the last 4 games--we are seeing the team come together. Against the Blazers, the Suns ran and shot in a throwback style but Shaq also pounded the ball on the low block, scoring 19. Same story in the Nuggets game: controlled chaos on the break, Shaq bullied to another 19.

If you look ahead at what this team can be when the defensive rotations improve (we did hold Denver scoreless for 3 minutes to close out the game) and the offense has more time together then there is every reason to think we can be good enough to get beat by the Lakers. It's been a rough road to this point, but standings-wise we are right there with everyone else.

So watch out Spurs fans. We are coming for you! Again! This time we mean it! Really!

Damn it, who am I kidding...

Well, okay, so we won't be meeting under the mistletoe anytime soon. But it was still fun.

Hey, Steve Nash, did you hear what Santa gift wrapped for Tony Parker this Christmas? That's right, your defense.

The Notebook: Spurs-Timberwolves, 12/24/08

2008-12-24T08:37:00.000-08:00

I had the pleasure of attending my second home game in a row, and just to make sure there was a bit of drama Pop chose to fiddle with the roster for 4 quarters instead of put away an underwhelming T-Wolves squad. But how is that different than any other night?

Tony Parker was the only Spur who really dazzled last night, scoring 36 points on 17 attempts. Aside from his nightly acrobatic show performed in the painted area, Parker was consistently draining his mid-range shot which, as we have noted several times, makes the little Frenchman very difficult to defend.

Tim Duncan played a decent game, scoring 19 points and hauling in 12 boards but he could have done a better job covering Al Jefferson, who walked away with 28 points. Many of Jefferson's points were scored on simple layups and post moves that Duncan did not make any especially aggressive attempt to stop. It's not so much that Duncan got beat as that he took the game lightly. For further evidence, note that he did not score at will whenever Kevin Love was guarding him.

Manu only saw 20 minutes of playing time, just enough to tweak his ankle late in the 4th quarter. He would return to the game with under two minutes left because Popovich refused to give the starting 5 the necessary minutes to put the Wolves away for good. It's unclear as to whether this incident was the inevitable aftermath of surgery (oftentimes the lingering scar tissue will cause brief but fleeting pain) or a sign that Manu has hurt himself further. Let's hope it's the former.

For the most part the team did not play spectacularly. Although we led by 16 at the beginning of the fourth, we within 4 with under 2 minutes to play. For the most part the didn't seem stale or winded because of the back-to-back. They just seemed uninterested in working hard against a team it was somewhat inevitable we were going to beat.

'No' on Mutumbo

2008-12-23T21:46:00.000-08:00

The next time Dikembe Mutombo engages in a basketball-related finger wag, I hope it's to say no to resuming his career by playing for the San Antonio Spurs. According to Mutombo, "I will be in Boston or San Antonio by the end of the year.'' Briefly then, I'd like to rehearse the reasons why it would be a mistake for the Spurs to sign my favorite Congolese-American big man.

48 Minutes of Hell has noted in various places that the Spurs have two pressing personnel needs: a young, athletic 3 that can get to the hoop and a big who can come away from the basket to guard face up 4s and 5s. The Spurs simply don't have the bodies on roster to man-up the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, David West and Amare Stoudemire. This could remain an issue into the offseason, and maybe beyond. But it's a certainty that Deke is not the man to answer the call.

Ian Mahinmi is rehabbing two ankles, one of which he injured while rehabbing the other. It's a laughable affair, I know. Once healthy, however, it really is in the Spurs best interest to keep Mahinmi's development on the fast track. This will necessitate minutes with the parent club. Mahinmi might regain his lungs by spending a short stint splashing around in the Toros' kiddy pool, but little else. The Spurs need to know if he can swim, and, if so, to what depths. The 10 minutes per game Popovich would find for Mutombo are better spent on Ian Mahinmi. Hold these words for later razzing: Mahinmi's end of the year numbers for San Antonio will be more impressive than Mutumbo's Boston totals.

The Spurs roster stands at 15. If the Spurs were to sign Mutumbo, they'd do well to waive Jacque Vaughn and bring him back as a coach, perhaps to George Hill. But they won't and wouldn't. Instead, the Spurs would waive either Anthony Tolliver or Malik Hairston. To my mind, it's too important a priority for the Spurs to get younger, and to do so on the cheap, to jettison the potential of Hairston and Tolliver as future contributors to the Silver and Black. In general, I'm in favor of the Spurs maintaining a fluid 15th spot of Austin Toros/San Antonio Spurs assignees and try-outs. Frankly, I'd be more excited to hear the Spurs had waived Vaughn in favor of, say, Courtney Sims than Dikembe Mutombo. I'm crazy that way. And, yes, I realize that Hairston, Tolliver, and, staying with the hypothetical, Sims would play little to no role with the Spurs this season.

The Spurs frontcourt, despite not having a quick-footed big that can come away from the hoop, is starting to round into form. It's doubtful that Mutombo adds anything. Okay, so this is obvious, but he's 42.

The Spurs current roster is capable of beating any team in the Western Conference in a series, with the possible exception of the Lakers. The Lakers are not hurt by Dikembe Mutombo. As a 5th big, however, Anthony Tolliver could create difficulties for LA. As we discussed early this season, the Lakers are susceptible to teams who can draw Bynum or Gasol out to guard perimeter-oriented forwards and centers, which is precisely the role of Matt Bonner and Anthony Tolliver.

Having said all that, Deke is a remarkable man. On a biographical note, I was in East Africa in January of 2005. This is a region whose lack of necessary, and typically basic, goods and services is difficult to overstate or adequately articulate. Dikembo Mutombo built a hospital in The Democratic Republic of the Congo through fund raising efforts. Now, he's trying to raise 2 million so that that hospital can deal with the overwhelming problems of malaria and measles. From Philly.com:

His Atlanta-based charitable foundation has teamed up with Denver-based Mobile Accord, Inc. to create a system by which people can make a contribution of $5 by sending the text message CONGO to 90999. The mobile channel is supported by AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Sprint/Nextel, T-Mobile and US Cellular. (Anyone wishing to donate more than $5 should dial 1-800-251-0942.)

''If we can get 400,000 people to send a text, we can raise the money,'' Mutombo said in a telephone interview the other day. ''We'll know in three months what we have done. It is to save the lives of children in Congo. So many of them have malaria. A child dies every 35 seconds of malaria or measles. I know I am not the solution, I am just a piece of the puzzle.''

The hospital Mutombo has built is the first modern medical facility there in 40 years.

Match-Up of the Night: Duncan vs. Jefferson

2008-12-23T13:33:00.000-08:00

In his first two games against the Spurs this season Al Jefferson played impressively, scoring 29.5 points and hauling in 13.5 rebounds per contest. Although the Wolves dropped their most recent game (in fact, they are on a 12 game losing streak), Jefferson put up some gaudy numbers against the Rockets (34 points, 13 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals). If Duncan, who saw plenty of rest last night as we cruised to victory over the Kings, can slow down Jefferson this Wolves team will have a difficult time staying competitive.

Even if Jefferson has a good game, Minnesota will have a difficult time toppling the Spurs on their home floor. Although on the second end of a back-to-back, Most of the Spurs' core producers saw plenty of rest last night and will most likely have enough wind in their sails to maintain control for a full 48 minutes.

I'm in Texas pretty infrequently nowadays, so I'm again cutting this evening's "Match-Up" short because I'm headed back to SA for the second night in a row. Enjoy the game.

At Center Court with Nate from Canis Hoopus

2008-12-23T06:32:00.000-08:00

Canis Hoopus is a clever name for a T-Wolves blog, if for no other reason than it lends itself easily to puns. So, for example, if the Wolves one day regain elite status in the West, the Canis Hoopus crew can celebrate each win of a streak with a post entitled Can-O-Whoop Ass. Or, under current circumstances, they have the option to exclusively refer to Kevin McHale as Super Doofus. You see it's easy. If only Minnesota had drafted---you guessed it---Kosta Koufos.

Am I always so cheesy? My sense of humor runs the gamut between smug intellectual esoterica to embarrassingly base juvenilia. But that's beside the point. We're here to talk T-Wolves with Nate.

Tim: As someone who follows the T-Wolves, I imagine this season has been a mixed bag of reactions regarding the rookie campaigns of Kevin Love and OJ Mayo. Tom Ziller wrote a fascinating article wherein he favorably compared Mayo's rookie campaign with 2003 draft class studs Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. What are your thoughts?

Nate: I'd encourage NBA fans to view the Mayo trade less in terms of Love v. Mayo and more in terms of Foye v. Mayo. Prior to the selection of Love, the Wolves spent their past 3 draft picks on perimeter tweeners: a 6'8" 185 pound wingman (Brewer), a 6 nothing 6th man/combo (Foye), and a 6'4" wanna-be superstar with top tier talent and an end-of-the-bench mentality (McCants). Last season the Wolves played Ryan Gomes at the 4 and they were obliterated. It's one thing to simply say that they needed to add a center; it's quite another to spring for Brook Lopez with the 3rd pick while doing nothing to move Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric, and Greg Buckner. This team was ridiculously lean in the front court (at one point they were looking at a Toine, Jefferson, Madsen frontcourt rotation) and they landed the best big available in a trade that also brought them a serviceable pro (Mike Miller) and cap relief. They made the trade because they were operating under the assumption that Foye and McCants would be serviceable pros. Unfortunately, they were wrong and fans are now looking at one of the worst backcourts in recent NBA history. Had the Wolves not selected Foye, Mayo's selection would have been a no-brainer from the get-go and we would not be comparing apples to oranges with Love and Mayo.

Love is going to be a solid pro. He has shown signs of being an elite rebounder while going through a coaching change, fluctuating minutes, and a change of culture (winning to losing) in his 1st professional season out of college. The ultimate test of the Love/Mayo trade will be how the Wolves utilize the upcoming draft (4 possible 1st rounders), Mike Miller's deal, and whether or not they will clean house in the front office. If they walk away from the draft with a starting point (Jennings, Holiday, Rubio) or a nice off-guard (Harden), all may be forgiven, especially if they can sign a nice free agent or make a decent sign-and-trade.

Tim: Whenever there is a big front office shake up, my mind races to the possibility of a Spurs executive being poached by the opposition. I've accepted that Dennis Lindsey and Dell Demps will eventually grab another franchise's reigns. How would something along those lines suit you? Is Minnesota an ideal candidate to become San Antonio of the cold north?

Nate: Dennis Lindsey is one of the GMs that we have on the radar at Hoopus. My colleague Wyn is currently working on a profile post and he is definitely right up there with guys like the Pacers' David Morway and the Rockets' Daryl Morey. That being said, nobody is sure what will happen with the team's front office at the end of the year. By moving McHale to the end of the bench, Wolves owner Glen Taylor may have removed him from the front office, but it remains to be seen what he will do with the remaining FO employees: Jim Stack, Rob Babcock, and Fred Hoiberg. Many Wolves fans have a bad feeling that not much will change in the front office and we'll be stuck with the same-old-same-old.

Tim: Prior to the Garnett and Allen trades, Boston and Chicago had shared in a model for failure. That is, the failed model of saddling a roster with a talented but inexperienced hodgepodge of youth. Boston broke free from the cycle, but Chicago is still mired in it. With Love and Jefferson on board, multiple first round picks in the 2009 draft, and lottery potential for the foreseeable future, do you worry that the lack of skilled veterans will ruin the Timberwolves?

Nate: I worry that the culture of losing will turn guys like Jefferson, Foye, Brewer, and Love into damaged goods. Rashad McCants has all the talent in the world. He's a 6'4" guard with excellent reach and strength, a beautiful outside shooting stroke, solid handle, the ability to finish with both hands, and so on and so forth. He's also a head case whose mind appears to have left his body this season as the result of one too many run ins with management. Granted, some of this is probably his own makeup but the type of losing atmosphere the Wolves have in spades can't be good for the basketball soul. Supposedly, the front office has some sort of "blueprint" that involves free agents and draft picks. I think this is a bunch of made-up nonsense but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolves take a run at a 2nd tier 2010 free agent (say, Caron Butler) with a sign-and-trade involving, perhaps, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal's expiring contract, and a 1st round pick. They need a 1 and a 3 and if they could address one in the draft and the other in free agency, they're not as far away from winning as the 4 wins would suggest.

Tim: Related to question 3, what type of veteran players would allow Al Jefferson to take the cliched next step?

Nate: I'm not sure veteran players are what Big Al needs. He needs a proficient point guard and a starting-level wing player. Period. The Wolves are completely, 100%, totally devoid of a guard who can break down an opposing defense. They don't have a single starting-level guard who can run an effective pick and roll. They don't have an above-average guard who can push the pace and quickly get the ball into a halfcourt set. They don't have a SF who can break down defenders or draw away double teams from the post. They don't have a 3 who can provide some defensive flexibility at the 2/3. If Al is going to take the next step, he'll first need to start playing a little defense. He'll also need a real 1 and 3. One of the biggest misconceptions associated with the Wolves is that they need to surround the poor-defending Jefferson with a shot-blocking defensive center like Sam Dalembert or (perhaps) Hasheem Thabeet. If you take a look at 82Games' positional stats, you'll see that the Wolves are getting obliterated at the 1 and 3. You'll also notice that the team's best guard is currently Kevin Ollie. If this team can land a guy like Jennings, Holiday, or Rubio in the draft, and if they can land a guy like Butler, Tayshaun Prince, Trevor Ariza, or Josh Childress at the 3, Al will hopefully be able to take the next step.

The Notebook: Spurs-Kings, 12/22/08

2008-12-22T21:24:00.000-08:00

In honor of my first trip to the AT&T Center this season, the Spurs delivered a convincing win over the floundering Sacramento Kings. At points, particularly the dreaded 290/I-35 intersection, I thought traffic was going to get the best of your humble author. But I kept my composure, made the smart call by going to the drive-thru at Whataburger instead of heading inside and made it to SA in time for tip-off.

Although the Kings would claim a 4 point lead in the early to mid-first, the Spurs took control by the end of the quarter and road to a comfortable victory for the remaining 36 minutes. Tony Parker came out a little unfocused, offering up three quick turnovers to the visiting royalty. The Kings also did a solid job negating Duncan's presence on the offensive end. The big fundamental would not score until three minutes into the second quarter. Despite Parker's protection issues (he would finish with 6 turnovers) and Duncan's early irrelevancy, the reliable shooting of Roger Mason kept the game close in the opening minutes.

By the time the second quarter began the Spurs had opened up an 11 point lead and were getting to the rim consistently. Even the handles-less Bruce Bowen had a confident dribble drive that ended in a smoothly-delivered layup in traffic. Seeing Bowen successfully penetrate the defense easily elicited the night's loudest cheers from a crowd that was pretty relaxed.

Expertly utilizing a second quarter lead that ballooned to 17 by half, Popovich made sure the minutes got spread around pretty evenly on the first leg of a back-to-back. A pleasant surprise this evening was the return of Anthony Tolliver, who clearly showed he was interested in hanging around San Antonio permanently. He shot a respectable 2-5 from the field (2-4 from 3-point range), but made more of a mark by showing unwavering effort during his 18 minutes of play. Tolliver never once allowed Sacramento to haul down a rebound unchallenged and successfully reigned in 6, a fact that may make an impact on Pop as he looks to shore up our frontcourt as the season continues.

The third quarter got a bit chippy as both Brad Miller and Tony Parker received technical fouls a few minutes a part. I didn't see why Miller got T-ed up, but I will say that Parker's technical seemed a tad unjustified. At the time we held a sizeable 21 point lead, so complaining about the refs is useless, but I was surprised with how quickly the referee dealt Parker the foul. That being said, Parker played very aggressively during the minutes immediately following the technical, a fact that may have made the whole affair worthwhile.

By the end of the fourth Popovich had deployed George Hill, Jacques Vaughn, Ime Udoka, Anthony Tolliver and Kurt Thomas to close out the night. Udoka, altough he played primarily garbage minutes, did not take his time on the court lightly. He was aggressive with the ball, going 2-2 from the field and 4-4 from the line. For the most part the Spurs as a whole shot well, ending the night with a collective 52.1 FG%.

Because the Spurs held such a decent lead for most of the game, Popovich was able to give our marquis players the rest they need to successfully complete the second leg of our back-to-back tomorrow night (the only Spur who saw 30 minutes of court time was Matt Bonner). I'll be headed back to SA again for tomorrow's Wolves game. I don't want to sound arrogant but there is no reason to expect a decidedly different outcome: The Kings and T-wolves have been going through the same growing pains that any mid-season coaching change brings. The game starts at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central.

Match-Up of the Night: Graydon vs. the Traffic on I-35

2008-12-22T15:17:00.000-08:00

There's no Match-Up of the Night tonight because I'm headed down to SA from Austin to catch the game. It's been about a year since I saw a game at the AT&T Center so needless to say I'm pretty excited. Enjoy the game, I'll be back with a recap tomorrow morning.

At Center Court with Tom Ziller

2008-12-21T21:24:00.000-08:00

Recently, Graydon and I were commiserating by email in wake of the New Orleans loss. In a sleep-drunk haze, I channeled the spirit of random adolescent absurdity by asking, "Who would win in bar fight: Henry Abbott or J.E. Skeets?"

Graydon, kind soul that he is, was nice enough to play along.

His initial reaction was to award points to Abbot, whose cleanly shaven head suggests an inherent ability to withstand punishment. For me, Henry's IMG footage displayed the heart of a manic warrior-child. Think Tyler Durden. Think Jack Bauer.

Still, Skeets has an impossible to discredit Steve-Nash-with-a-bloody-nose feistyness to him. Confusing matters further, Graydon couldn't divorce the hypothetical from its context: a bar. Skeets is resourceful. Look how much play he gets from his first two initials. J period. E period. How's that for milking it? Who knows that he wouldn't go all Jason Bourne and fashion a how to cocktail guide into a fearsome weapon? We were stuck.

As I counted the sheep of the inaugural hoop bloggers PPV event, my little typing machine beeped. Graydon's final thought: What about Ziller?

The mighty Tom Ziller. Tom Ziller, whose Sactown Royalty is the flagship of excellence for team-specific basketball blogs. Tom Ziller, whose league-wide musings have made Fanhouse a must-stop destination for hoopophiles everywhere. Tom Ziller, who kindly stops by 48 Minutes to answer a few random Kings questions in advance of tonight's game.

TV: In comparison to Reggie Theus, Kenny Natt has a greater sense of professionalism and vision. Is Natt more than an interim option? Is he simply a placeholder for next season's retread?

TZ: It's been made pretty clear the team will let Natt run out the season. He certainly has an opportunity to win consideration for the job. The conventional wisdom holds that the front office wants a more offensive-minded boss with a track record of success as a head coach. But at the same time, Natt is established as a good assistant coach and if he can show he's reached the players and understands what it will take for the team to succeed, I think he'll be a candidate for the job. (It doesn't hurt that he'll likely be cheaper than [Flip] Saunders.)

TV: The Kings have a difficult-to-shape roster. Kevin Martin, Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes are, or project to be, legitimate NBA starters. The jury is out on Donte Greene and Bobby Brown, but each shows promise. Beno Udrih, John Salmons, and Francisco Garcia are rotation-quality players, but Petrie has no reason to treat them as sacrosanct--they join the rest of the roster as possible "we're glad to know ya, but had to move you" guys. In your estimation, where does Geoff Petrie go from here?

TZ: I think Brad Miller is clearly the first domino to fall, with Mikki Moore close behind. Hawes' arrival has tightened up the big man rotation, and Thompson has shown he can be a legit NBA player. The point guard situation is worrisome -- the ink on Beno's contract isn't even dry and almost every fan is drooling over Rubio and Jennings. Salmons is an interesting case. Conventional wisdom holds that he's a bit too old to fit in Sacramento's long-term future (he is 29) and just not as good as the Kings need for a swingman starter. But his contract is fantastic, and Greene isn't ready to be a full-time starter. I think the Kings will hold onto him until there's an easy replacement, either by trade or ascension. (Also, I think the team feels more comfortable with both Martin and Garcia at the two, although both have played quite a bit three.)

TV: Maloof meddling aside, Geoff Petrie is a good GM. Occasionally, however, he pulls a head scratcher. For example, I can't get my mind around Beno Udrih's contract. The Spurs gave him away for an imaginary draft pick. He has his moments, but mid-level money? Really?

TZ: You have to understand the situation: the Kings had no other point guards on the roster, except second-round draft pick Sean Singletary. Basically, it was Udrih or Chris Duhon. Udrih played well last season and showed sparks of brilliance in a few games (including a home match against the Spurs). The Kings weren't going to get Udrih for less than the full mid-level. Obviously, Sacramento would have preferred to be able to negotiate with Udrih some, but there really wasn't any other option. I think if the Kings would have landed Russell Westbrook or Jerryd Bayless in the draft, they might have called Udrih's bluff. But that didn't happen.

TV: What things do you look for in games the Kings should lose?

TZ: There are three players we watch incessantly: Hawes, Thompson, Greene. For Hawes, we're looking at rebounding, defense and shot selection. With Thompson, it's defense and his offensive moves. Greene ... I could watch him core an apple. He's an absolute joy.

Stop by Sactown Royalty for the latest in Kings punditry, including some thought-provoking back and forth on Gerald Wallace's possible return to Sacramento.

Match-Up of the Night: Parker vs. Calderon

2008-12-20T14:31:00.000-08:00

Last year Jose Calderon was one of the more underrated players in the entire Association. I would argue the only larger All-Star snub than Calderon was Manu Ginobili. He had an excellent turnover rate, shot .519 from the field, and was pretty much automatic from the charity stripe. After successfully navigating a difficult situation with former teammate T.J. Ford, who would be traded to the Pacers for Jermaine O'Neal, Calderon permanently secured the starting job in Toronto.

Most Toronto fans would probably admit that Calderon has been a little underwhelming this year. At 10-16, the entire Raptors squad has been underwhelming but Calderon in particular has performed slightly beneath expectations. His turnover rate is up, his field goal percentage is down, and many Raptors fans are quietly missing T.J. Ford's ability to get into the lane. Most recently Calderon and the Raps are coming off a pretty mediocre performance against the Thunder, in which they gave OKC only its third victory of the season.

It's not often one would say a player has a chance to bounce back from a loss to OKC against the Spurs, but given the way Tony Parker has played recently, that very well may be the case. Parker shot a mere 3-17 from the floor against the Magic on Thursday night and proved incapable of slowing down a hot-handed Jameer Nelson. Some efficiency and aggression on the part of Parker would go a long way towards ending the Spurs 2-game skid.

At Center Court with AltRaps

2008-12-20T03:00:00.000-08:00

Most of our readers have probably spent a little time at Raptors Republic, a one stop petting zoo of dribbling dinos. Raptors Republic has a good stable of writers, one of whom is AltRaps. AltRaps manages to balance out his obsessive-compulsive zeal for the Raptors by being a smart guy, in both senses. After last night's disheartening loss to the suddenly improved Thunder, he painted the Bryan Colangelo era with broadstokes. Here is what he had to say in response to a few random questions from 48 Minutes of Hell:

TV: Disappointing season so far for the Raptors faithful? In a nut shell, what's up with your team?

AR: Depends on who you ask. GM Bryan Colangelo is on record as saying this is the best Raptors team he has put together "on paper" before the season started. Where has that put us so far? On pace for a 30 win season and a lottery pick. Given our track record in the draft, that doesn't leave much to hang our "IN BC WE TRUST" hats on. Others, myself included, looked at a roster of 13 that included one player with a heart condition (Nathan Jawai, who has yet to suit up this season), Will Solomon (never heard of him? shocking), Roko Ukic who had never played an NBA minute, and Hassan Adams. We had about as much depth entering this season as a kid's play pool. Factor in the health issues of Jermaine O'Neal and the Olympic summers of Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon, and some were left wondering if we'd make it to Christmas with a full roster. One week to go!!! As it stands, we have given up numerous double digit leads, had Vince Carter kill us (again), and became a hilight reel for LeBron James. The turnstiles in your local arena play better lock down defense than our perimeter guys and we get slayed on the boards by the ball girls pre-game.

TV: Some folks are suggesting that Ettore Messina could be in your head coaching cards. Is this the sort of rumor that excites you? What are your concerns about the possibility of landing a top Euroleague coach?

AR: Given the presence of Maurizio in our front office and Bryan's penchant for all things Euro lately, this move wouldn't surprise me. I do question his ability to learn the NBA system on the fly, though, and that concerns me since we have a group of players that need coaching. They need to be put through drills, educated via video, and have a coach that demands and receives respect both by them, opposing players and the refs. Does he bring it? I'd have to say no. We as a city and a country also suffer from a huge inferiority complex. We are convinced that nobody born in the US over the height of 6' would want to don a Raptors jersey. I can't see the hiring of Messina prompting any 2010 free agents to say "hey, they've got that new coach there. Sure, I'll go north".

TV: Is Andrea Bargnani a sunk cost? If not, what is his value to the team? As a trade asset?

AR: Bargs actually broke out a bit this year. He was playing with confidence, playing some (still minimal) defense and he was driving to the hoop as opposed to standing by the 3pt line and flinging rainbows. Much was made of the move by Sam Mitchell in training camp to tell Andrea he wasn't allowed to shoot any 3s. One might think it actually sunk in since in the first 15 games you probably saw more Andrea dunks than in his first few seasons. Since Sam left, however, he has regressed a bit and new coach Jay Triano has admitted he needs to draw up some plays to include Bargs. He will never ever be a rebounder since he lacks that hunger, but he really does have a shooting gift. The prevailing feeling amongst the faithful is he will never be traded since it would be akin to Colangelo admitting he made a mistake. Personally, I think he has some value on the market and would thrive in a system like Utah. He needs some hands on attention and reassurance.

TV: Ding. Going up. Quick: your best elevator speech about the Sam Mitchell era.

AR: Sam went from being Coach of the Year (a year of great overachieving by this ballclub) to scapegoat at the hands of mismanagement. Is Sam a great coach? No. Is he a good coach? Maybe. Does he have the respect of players? Definitely. We have been living under a carousel of fringe players the entire time he was here. Sure, you had a nice core in Bosh and Calderon and now O'Neal, but we have had upwards of 20 guys come in and out of the locker room, guys going down to season (and near-career) ending injuries, a rotation of immature point guards, and players that couldn't remember what play they were supposed to run if it was being held up on a 20x20 whiteboard by 2 Hooters girls. Sam got a bum rap, in my opinion, as is evidenced by our record since he was let go. The players, as is often the case but is REALLY the case here, are the problem. Even worse, you fire the coach that was close with your MVP and the new starting point guard. Hell, the guy you are trying to keep here in 2010 even blogged about wishing Sam the best. How often does THAT happen? I'm sure Sam felt he could probably suit up and do a better job than most of the scrubs he was handed....and, sadly, he is probably right.

If you want to see how the other half lives, you can join them live tonight for a stream and blog.

The Notebook: Spurs-Magic, 12/18/08

2008-12-19T08:58:00.000-08:00

Last night the Spurs were defeated by the Orlando Magic 90-78. Although down for every moment except the games opening minutes, the Spurs showed some resilience down the stretch and nearly completed a rather improbable comeback.

The first half of last night's game may have been the worst half of basketball the Spurs have played all season. It was the fewest points the Spurs have scored in a half so far this year (29). It wasn't that the Magic played tremendous defense, although to his credit Howard is a more skilled defender than I had given him credit for. The Spurs just spectacularly failed to execute. The obvious excuse is the physical wear-and-tear of a back-to-back, but there was a deeper mental exhaustion that was more noticeable. We finished the game with 15 turnovers, at least 7 of which came during the first quarter.

The Spurs eventually pulled it together, fighting back from what was a 20+ point deficit to bring the game within 6 halfway through the fourth. But some consistently aggressive play on the part of Jameer Nelson sealed the deal for Magic.

Although the team played very poorly as a collective unit during the first half, Tony Parker did not get his fill of underwhelming basketball and decided to be sheepish and ineffective for a full 48 minutes. He penetrated the defense infrequently and continued to take jumper after jumper even though his mid-range shot wasn't falling. He finished 3-17 with 4 turnovers and 4 assists.

In fact, the only Spurs to have nice shooting nights were Roger Mason (4-7) and Matt Bonner (3-5). Kurt Thomas and Ime Udoka also had quiet but efficient nights on both ends of the floor.

The Spurs are headed back to San Antonio for a game tomorrow night against the 10-15 Toronto Raptors. Hopefully a little rest and a 3-game homestand can get the boys back on track.

Match-Up of the Night: Duncan vs. Howard

2008-12-18T13:53:00.000-08:00

The Spurs roll into Orlando today to take on the toughest Eastern Conference opponent we've faced all season (if you are being intellectually honest, you will admit the Magic are currently better than the Pistons). Tangling with the Magic inevitably brings Duncan-Howard comparisons, so why fight it?

Howard is the most electrifying frontcourt presence since the young Shaquille O'Neal. His athleticism is unparalleled in today's game and I would argue that, if he shows the discipline to really develop a sophisticated offensive arsenal, he could permanently change the way we conceive of the position of center. He does his most magnificent work in the air above the rim, throwing down far more dunks than any other player in the league.

Even more magnetic than his play is his personality. Howard is a fountain of whimsy. Few players can more often be caught with a smile strewn across their face. Only 23 years old, Howard's proclivity towards dunking seems to derive more from a childlike belief that dunks are fun than from any attempt to intimidate.

Across the paint from young Howard stands the Big Fundamental himself. Tonight's game is no sort of test for Duncan: He has made a career out of outmaneuvering and outsmarting more athletic big men (Young Shaq, Amare). But it is an excellent test for Howard. Can one of the NBA's newest stars handle Duncan's crafty footwork? Has Howard developed the sophistication to finally contend with Duncan's clever positioning? Tonight will be an excellent barometer to see how far the reigning dunk-contest champion has come.

The Notebook: Spurs-Hornets, 12/18/08

2008-12-18T09:14:00.000-08:00

I began writing this edition of the Notebook last night but honestly I was too frustrated to compose anything articulate. With a little distance between me and the Spurs' impotent fourth quarter performance, I can now offer some reasonable reflections on what went down.

The game began slow, and remained relatively close for the entire contest. The Spurs largest lead was 9, which they held during the opening minutes of the 4th after George Hill made two free throws after having been fouled by Antonio Daniels. At this point, the Spurs seemed composed, maintaining their lead by getting into the lane and to the line. But somewhere along the way, the Spurs decided maintaining a comfortable lead was not enough and they began gambling away their fortunes in a shower of 3-pointers. In the 4th quarter the Spurs launched nine shots from beyond the arc; zero of those shots swished through the net.

This is an inexcusable statistic. When you are nursing a decent single-digit lead (or really any kind of lead for that matter), your entire agenda must be the creation of high percentage shots. Slow down the game, get stops, get guys to the charity stripe, etc... There is no need to employ a boom/bust tactic like excessive outside shot attempts. Both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker shoot over 50% from the field. When you have two guys who can produce with such consistency, there is no reason a team should sustain such an extended offensive drought.

After shooting an abysmal 3-15 from the floor (including 1-8 from beyond the arc), it seems pretty easy to heap a significant amount of the blame on Matt Bonner for our inability to put this game away. And some of that blame is deserved. For instance, there is no reason whatsoever that Bonner should be the Spur with the most field goal attempts. Yes, he has been shooting extremely well, but his alarmingly high FG% has been born of good shot selection, not over-inflated volume. That being said, I don't want to throw Bonner under the bus. In some ways a game like this was inevitable. His increasing confidence and hot hand were eventually going to steamroll into a night filled with an overzealous amount of offensive involvement on the part of the Red Rocket. But this better not happen again.

If you get a chance, swing by TrueHoop and check out Henry Abbott's breakdown of how Chris Paul beat Manu on a jump ball in the final minute of the fourth quarter. Warning: It involves some trickery and maybe even a touch of illegality on the part of CP3, so if you are on of those people who love to fume about the refs, maybe you should just skip it.

The Spurs head to Orlando this evening where they take on the 19-6 Magic. The game starts at 8 Eastern/7 Central.

At Center Court with Ben Q. Rock

2008-12-18T03:00:00.000-08:00

This is the first post under the new tag At Center Court with...which is intended to be a quick interview with the best minds who cover the opposition. Nothing deep. A few quick, somewhat random questions that allow us to explore another team from a Spurs perspective.

Ben Q. Rock works miracles over at Third Quarter Collapse, the best place for an Orlando Magic fan to spend his working hours. Yesterday I was intrigued by his take on Dwight Howard's knee. Today I have the opportunity to pick his brain about the state of the Magic. Happy little world, isn't it?

TV: So long as Dwight Howard remains healthy the Magic should contend for the title. As someone who fears Howard, I take solace in the Rashard Lewis contract. I don't think the Magic could ever move him, and I don't think his performance will ever match his dollars. In other words, if the current roster can't make it over the hump, the Magic will have a difficult time reshuffling the deck. A year and quarter in, what do you think of his contract?

BQR: I'm less pessimistic on the Lewis contract than you are. Yes, he's overpaid, but he's still a great player. I really doubt the Magic will run out of use for Lewis. Even as he ages, he's not going to forget how to shoot... and as long as Dwight Howard is in the middle, he'll get his share of open looks. If the Magic decide they'd be better off without him, they can try unloading him when there's only a year left. A $22 million expiring contract is bound to bring some quality young talent.

Hopefully, it won't come to that, though.

TV: Courtney Lee is a keeper. Where do you see his ceiling?

BQR: I'm hard-pressed to describe Lee's ceiling. He looks like a lock-down defender--Stan Van Gundy has already said Lee's the best perimeter defender on the team--so it's just a question of what he'll do offensively. This month he's shown aggressiveness in the halfcourt and in transition, and as David Thorpe pointed out he's finishing with his left hand when the defense forces him to.

He'll never be an All-Star, but he'll stick around.

TV: In your season preview, you thought a reasonable expectation of the Magic was to make the Eastern Conference Finals. Is this still the case? If not, what must change between now and the playoffs for the Magic to get past the semifinals?

BQR: I'm not still sure that the Magic are conference-finals material, which is frightening because I think they're playing about as best as they can given their current roster. The Celtics and Cavaliers are just so far ahead of everyone else in the East that it's going to be tough to pass either team to make the conference finals... unless the Cavs and Celts meet in the second round, in which case the Magic have to like their chances. It's also tough to get a read on the Magic, since they'll probably tighten the rotation in the playoffs.

If you'd like an across the aisle game preview of tonight's Spurs/Magic contest, point your browser to Third Quarter Collapse. They've got you covered. Otherwise, Graydon will be around this afternoon with his usual Match Up of the Night.

Match-Up of the Night: Spurs vs. Hornets

2008-12-17T10:17:00.000-08:00

A founding tenet of Spurs dogma is the principle that regular season games should only be seen as a preparatory exercise for a deep post-season run. For the team's emotions to wax and wain too heavily with each rivalry game is to allow us to lose sight of the fact that the wins that truly count come in May and June. A win or a loss tonight will not dramatically effect our record, nor will it be a good indicator of what we are capable of come the postseason. The Spurs are the Jekyll and Hyde of the NBA: Coolly meandering to a 50+ win record before abandoning any sense of empathy in the merciless pursuit of more rings. It is almost impossible to assess the potential of Mr. Hyde by taking a good look at the achievements of Dr. Jekyll.

And yet I cannot shake the idea that tonight's game against the New Orleans Hornets is different. This is the first of four contests between these two squads but this one may hold a special place in directing the narrative arc of this budding rivalry. Last year's Western Conference Semifinal series was epic in scope yet schizophrenic in nature. Over the course of 7 games, the two teams scored nearly the exact same amount of points despite the fact that 6 of the 7 wins were considerably lopsided. Many thought that the series might signify a passing of the guard in the Southwest Division, as one balanced, defensively-minded squad ceded its dominance to another. But alas, such calls came far too early. Those who prophesied the parting of Duncan and the coming of Paul did not realize that it is the big man himself who will decide when he and his Spurs recede into irrelevancy.

There are far too many important match-ups this evening to focus on just one, so I've decided to touch upon the three which I deem to be most critical: Bowen vs. Peja; Parker vs. Paul; Duncan vs. Chandler.

Bowen vs. Peja

Heading into the 3rd game of the Western Conference Semi-Finals, Popovich made a strategic adjustment that would permanently change the course of the series. He moved Bruce Bowen off of Chris Paul and onto Peja Stojakovic. This turned out to be a brilliant move on Pop's part, as Peja would become an increasingly irrelevant factor in the series and the Spurs would go on to win 4 of the next 5 games. Hopefully Popovich will remember Bowen's performance in the latter half of the series and leave him on the lanky Belgradian.

Peja, at age 31, is no longer a threat to score off the dribble. The majority of his offensive production is based off of catch-and-shoot opportunities. When you have a guy who can slash-and-dish like Paul can, those opportunities arise often. But Bowen has the ability to negate Peja's presence on the floor almost entirely. Bruce will not merely smother Peja if he ever receives the ball, but he is one of the best defenders at ensuring that the man he is guarding never touches the ball in the first place.

This is why Bowen is so much more effective covering shooting guards than point guards. Yes, Bowen can prevent penetration or make it difficult to pass, but he is at his most potent when denying the reception of said pass. As always, don't expect Bowen to put up big numbers this evening. For a better sense of how well Bowen played, note whether or not Peja's points reach double digits.

Paul vs. Parker

Without a doubt, this is considered the marquis match-up of the game and rightly so. Paul has the hands of a magician and the soul of an enforcer, both neatly packaged in his relatively petite 6 foot frame. Across the aisle stands Tony Parker, similarly diminutive and equally unguardable. Their off-the-court friendship led to some spectacular on-the-court theatrics last year, as both players would oftentimes entirely forget about the other 8 men on the floor and go shot-for-shot.

In some ways, that is exactly what we want out of Paul. If Paul scores 30 points, but is held to single digit assists, the Spurs are much more likely to leave New Orleans with a victory. If Paul is able to fully integrate West, Chandler, Posey and Peja into the game, then the Spurs will have quite the offensive force on their hands. The goal is not to stop Paul from putting on a show; the goal is to disrupt the cohesion of the Hornets' offense as a whole.

For the Hornets, I think the goal is to hope Parker isn't making his mid-range shots. Beyond that, I've yet to decipher how one would best shut down Parker's game. Certainly the primary goal has to be preventing penetration, but Parker's explosive quickness makes achieving such a goal unlikely. The better bet seems to be to give Parker space near the outside and hope he takes the bait. Although, given the fact that Parker has made 54% of the shots he's taken between 15 ft. and the 3-point line so far this season, it's an increasingly risky wager.

Duncan vs. Chandler

I'll admit it: During last years playoff series, Tyson Chandler did as good a job covering Duncan as anyone has. After averaging 22.5 ppg and shooting 65% from the field against NOLA during the regular season, Chandler held the Big Fundamental to just 15.3 ppg on 42% shooting during the playoffs. If Chandler can muster a similar level of defensive prowess again tonight, the Spurs are in for a long 48 minutes. Duncan has his hands full on the defensive end of the ball as well, as he will be covering David West while having to simultaneously prevent Chandler from connecting with Paul for one of their patented alley-oops.

This is the least predictable of the three match-ups, partially because Chandler has recently missed some time due to injury, partly because you can never confidently say anyone in the league can handle Duncan. But Chandler is the type of physical frontcourt presence who is more than prepared to give it a shot. The key against a player like Chandler is to establish yourself early: Chandler thrives on momentum. If you allow him to control the glass or deny you shots from the outset, you better be ready for him to cause hell for a full four quarters.

The game starts at 9:30 Eastern/8:30 Central on ESPN.

George Hill's Mid-Range Game

2008-12-15T10:16:00.000-08:00

During a recent interview, Gregg Popovich admitted that the Spurs had second thoughts about drafting George Hill after his lamentable 2-25 summer league performance. Hill has since improved, but he is still mired in offensive mediocrity.

During his Vegas summer league campaign, Hill missed from everywhere, as 2-25 attests. During those three games, he was able to get to the hoop but couldn't finish his shots at the rim. He lacked touch. Between then and now, something clicked: Hill is 41-75 (.547) in the regular season and scores most of his points on drives to the hoop. Even here, however, things are not all cookies and milk. Hill's still-developing ball handling skills limit his lane creativity. Most notably, Hill never shows the slightest inclination of going left.

Hill's saving grace is his ability to draw fouls. This kept him afloat in the summer league where he got to the line nearly 9 times per contest. Of his regular season performance, David Thorpe recently wrote:

However, he has a 6-foot-9 wingspan, which allows him to extend his arm past defenders. This forces defenders either to let him get the shot off going to the rim or to get even closer to him on the driving finish, which generates more foul calls. Hill takes 3.8 free throws per game on just 8.2 field goal attempts per game. (Remember, Mayo is at 3.6 on 17.2 shots per game.)

This could suggest that Hill is an aggressive player who imposes himself on defenders, but this is where watching the games helps. If anything, Hill plays too tentatively. He has more opportunities than he recognizes and is, understandably, too deferential to his teammates. George Hill is only scratching the surface of what he can become as an offensive player. His short game is on track, but with lots of rail ahead. With the lethal combination of a developing Hill and a peaking Parker, the San Antonio Spurs will force teams into the penalty early and often. But Hill must be described as "developing."

As a three point shooter, Hill is already a passable option. He's shooting .394 from beyond the arc, hitting from nearly every angle. In time, his accuracy from this range is likely to improve. It's not hard to imagine Hill as a consistent +.400 three point marksman. But his ability to stroke the three leads us to the most salient weakness in Hill's game--Hill's mid-range game is woefully inadequate.

	At Rim	Paint, but not at rim	Mid-range	3 Pt%	FT%	FTA per game

Hill	.547	.200	.270	.394	.797	3.52

George Hill doesn't have a floater, he doesn't have a pull up, he doesn't come off the curl, he doesn't dribble drive to a sweet spot at 15 feet. In some ways, he reminds me of a young Tony Parker.

Parker's mid-range jump shot, you may remember, was a train wreck. It took work with Spurs shooting coach Chip Engelland to rebuild Parker's shot into the reliable weapon it is today. NBA Hot Spots data goes back to 2004, and in that season Parker shot .379 from mid-range. The Spurs hired Engelland in July of 2005, largely to expedite Parker's growth . By 2007, Parker was shooting .421 from mid-range. This season Parker is at an even .500 from mid-range. Anything Tony Parker attempts from 17 to 19 ft is a great bet to go in. Tony Parker is not often thought of as an elite scorer, but he is one of the most efficient and unguardable offensive players in the league. Parker's epic 55, 10, and 7 early season romp was a testament to the work he's put in to become a more complete offensive player.

George Hill began working with Chip Engelland during training camp. He has all the physical tools and athleticism to become a competent scorer, just like Parker before him. But his game is certainly a work in progress. In the short term, a well-coached playoff team could put a dent into his 17.16 PER. Thankfully for Hill, Gregg Popovich is doing a masterful job of putting Hill in good offensive situations. Pop, for example, routinely calls Hill's number on a simple high screen and roll that gives the rookie point guard opportunity to drive directly to the rim, kick it back to Duncan on a high percentage 17 ft pick and pop, or send the ball toward Mason/Bowen in the corner. More importantly, Hill's 10 points per game is gravy for the Spurs. Pop will pressure him to stay aggressive, but Hill is never the primary scoring option in any line up. He is attractive to the coaching staff because of his defensive prowess, hustle, rebounding, and, surprisingly low turnover rate for a rookie learning point. For now, the Spurs will have to live with a mid-range game that is nothing to get excited about.

Match-Up of the Night: Hill vs. Westbrook

2008-12-14T09:58:00.000-08:00

Tonight's game against the Thunder features an opportunity for young Mr. Hill to show up yet another highly hyped draft pick who he has outperformed this season: Russell Westbrook.

In some ways Westbrook and Hill remind me of one another. Both possess a malleable athleticism that could develop into a dependable offensive attack and both were already reliable defenders upon entering the league. But their paths since entering have been decidedly different: Westbrook has slightly underperformed expectations (only slightly), making only .378 of his field goals and turning the ball over 2.75 times a game. In his defense, Westbrook's induction into the NBA is something attune to a baptism by fire given that he's playing for what very well may go down as the worst team in the history of the league. It's gotten so bad that Thunder bloggers are now seriously considering whether or not OKC would beat the North Carolina Tar Heels (I believe they would).

Hill, on the other hand, fell comfortably into the tutelage of a two-time MVP and a first ballot Hall-of-Fame coach. While there he has flourished, discovering an offensive game that looked non-existent during the Summer League as well as improving upon his already respected defensive abilities. He still maintains the third best PER in the league amongst rookies (only Marreese Speights and O.J. Mayo are better). Hill continues to show some inconsistencies (for instance, he plays drastically better at home than away) but as he matures his numbers will surely become more steady. The game begins tonight at 7 Eastern/6 Central in San Antonio.

Toros Watch: Austin 133, Colorado 108

2008-12-13T08:18:00.000-08:00

The Toros are starting to round into form after a shaky start. Their roster is an impressive collection of talent, some of which has a future in San Antonio. The Toros will compete for the NBDL title this season, but that is a secondary concern. Our primary interest in Austin is how their big league hopefuls are performing.

Marcus Williams continues to stuff the box score, but his tweener size will likely translate into a tweener career. The Spurs certainly appreciate what he adds to the Toros, but I seriously doubt he ever makes their team. Williams' best bet is to parlay his numbers into an international contract. He might be able to carve out a nice career overseas.

Malik Hairston continues to intrigue. In this contest he was 8-11 from the field, ending the night with 25, 7, 7, 2, and 1. In college, Hairston displayed a decent three point stroke, improving each season and finishing at a respectable 43%. Since joining the NBDL, he is shooting 71%, but on only 8 attempts. In his final season at Oregon he attempted .34 three pointers per field goal attempt as compared to .10 as a Toro. Conversely, his free throw attempts have improved from .41 to .59 per FGA. In other words, Hairston is making a concerted effort to put the ball on the floor and get to the hoop. This is great considering his FT% is on a 10% rise (now at 83%). Quietly, Hairston has become a more efficient, better-rounded basketball player. During his preseason stint with the Spurs he looked unsure of himself on offense, but this is slowly changing. Development League, indeed.

Blake Ahearn provided the Toros with 25 points and 10 assists, making 4 of 5 from beyond the arc. On the season, he is only averaging 18 and 5, so this may be a sign that he is starting to find his way in the offense. Ahearn will never be a quality defender, but if he is able competently orchestrate the offense and maintain his stroke, he could stick with the Spurs. I give him 50-50 odds and think he would serve the Spurs well-enough as an inexpensive, serviceable third point.

Anthony Tolliver is a mystery. He led the team with 30 points on 8-12 from deep. During his 11 games with San Antonio, Tolliver threw up brick after brick, connecting on only 21% of his three point attempts. Since joining the Toros, his deep ball is back to 56% on the season, 13-18 this week. Is Tolliver a streak shooter? Did he hit a slump in San Antonio? Big league jitters? Are NBA defenses a touch too suffocating for him to get off the same looks he finds in summer league and NBDL contests? We'd like to know.

The Toros play again tonight at 8:30 EST. You can watch the game on the NBDL Futurecast or buy a ticket at the gate.

(Photograph courtesy of Brooke Dyer)

Match-up of the Night: Parker vs. The Entire Timberwolves Lineup

2008-12-12T14:54:00.000-08:00

On November 5th the Spurs logged their first win of the season in a grueling 2OT time victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If it weren't for the heroics of Tony Parker, who scored 55 points, the Spurs would have surely dropped to 0-4. Parker scored at will throughout the game, but was most impressive during the two overtime periods. If the Wolves are going to be competitive, they are going to have to slow him down.

This is not to say Parker is unstoppable. He certainly didn't look so on Wednesday against the Hawks. His 6 point, 2 rebound, 3 assist game may have been his worst of the season. That being said, Parker is unlikely to have two mediocre outings in a row. Tonight could be a big night for the speedy little Frenchman.

In some ways the November 5th game against the Wolves feels like a lifetime ago. As the only positive part of our 1-4 start, that whole moment feels like a bad dream given the 12-4 record we have racked up since then. That being said, in order to truly exorcise the demons that have haunted us since early November, the Spurs need to win convincingly. What is so quietly disconcerting about our first game against Minnesota is that it took us 2 overtimes to beat a pretty bad Minnesota team. Re-establishing the notion that the Spurs win the games they are supposed to and win them consistently will go a long way towards putting the silver and black back in the title contention discussion (which for all intents and purposes, we are already in). The game starts at 8 Eastern/7 Central.

'Tis the Season for Trade Speculation

2008-12-12T02:02:00.000-08:00

The trade season begins in earnest on Monday. On the 15th, players signed this summer are eligible to be traded. In all likelihood, the Spurs won't make any headlines. Simply put, they don't have the assets, players, or contracts to fetch an impact player. Still, I'm going to sketch the lay of the land, and your welcome to contribute in the comment section. So this post is what it is says it is: idle speculation.

The Spurs have two glaring personnel needs: 1) they could use an athletic wing who is able to get to the basket. This sort of player would help the current squad, but could also represent an eventual successor to Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley. Ime Udoka is not the heir apparent. 2) the Spurs would benefit from shoring up their front line. The need here is two-fold. First, Kurt Thomas is showing his age and Ian Mahinmi isn't showing anything--the Spurs need a rugged big to muscle rebounds, block shots, and body opposing centers. Second, the Spurs need a big who is able to come away from the basket and guard face-up 4s like David West and Dirk Nowitzski. Long term, they have options. Their current personnel, however, is incapable of meeting the task.

In terms of assets, the Spurs come up empty. The best they could offer is a 2011 first round pick, having traded away their 2009 pick for Kurt Thomas. But if things go south in 2010, the 2011 pick becomes extremely important to the franchise, and, don't hate me for saying it, could be a pick in the teens or lottery. I doubt they offer it to anyone prior to February 2011, at the earliest.

If the Spurs hope to compete for a title this season, they need to keep their roster more or less in tact. But they have pieces at the edges that could be moved without doing violence to the team: Jacque Vaughn, Ime Udoka, and, perhaps, Kurt Thomas. Vaughn and Udoka are on expiring deals and make 1.2 and 1 million, respectively. Kurt Thomas is signed through next season at 4.2 and 3.8 million per. Ask yourself, how many teams are clamoring for these players? Exactly.

There is not much to work with then, but Pop and Buford will have to make due with what they've got. From where I sit, the Spurs are best suited to hang on to everyone else. If for no other reason, the Spurs rely heavily on "corporate knowledge", to use Popovich's expression, and need a bevy of players who are fully integrated into the system for the team to find success. With newcomers Hill, Mason, and, possibly, Mahinmi getting their shot this season, the Spurs are already plenty green.

The Spurs use their 14th and 15th roster spots to develop players in Austin and if needed those men, Blake Ahearn or Anthony Tolliver, could be cut to create space. Conversely, if the Spurs were to trade Vaughn or Thomas, Ahearn and/or Tolliver could drive south to fill the void. In addition to Ahearn and Tolliver, wings Malik Hairston and Marcus Williams are playing for the Toros. Neither is under contract with the parent club, but each is a recent Spurs draft pick whose development is being watched carefully by the three-headed monster of Buford, Lindsey and Demps. In my opinion, the Spurs could probably get by if they replaced Udoka with Hairston. This is not to say they are equal players, just that Hairston could provide an emergency stop-gap for the loss of an out-of-rotation wing.

Speaking of Austin, I'm of increasing persuasion that the Spurs would be best served to trade one of the three aforementioned vets for a player whom they could develop in Austin for next season. For example, given Tony Parker, George Hill, Roger Mason Jr., Manu Ginobili, and Blake Ahearn, do the Spurs have any use for Jacque Vaughn? He's a bright player and all, but come on. Superfluous. His roster spot would be better spent on a player that could contribute a year from now.

Listless stuff, I know. But those are the parameters I'm working within, and I won't allow my imagination to stretch further. Having said that, here is the blogosphere's most anticlimactic trade speculation post to date. I've organized the proposals in order of greatest to least plausibility. Drum roll for the doldrums...

Marcin Gortat: He answers the call for a rugged big, and has no role whatsoever with the point guard bereft Magic. JV for Gortat makes sense for both teams. Gortat played solid basketball against the Pistons last postseason, so it's odd that he's out of the rotation. But Stan Van Gundy didn't play Trevor Ariza either, so I wouldn't read too much into it. Gortat is NBDL eligible through this season.

Sean May: Jackie Bulter redux? Maybe. More turgid than rugged, May is a large PF. Nevertheless, his ability to rebound and hit spot up jumpers would help the Spurs front line. He's fallen out of favor with Brown, which means Popovich hasn't received a good report. Still, Pop could define a role and squeeze May dry for 15 minutes a game. Charlotte gets two Larry Brown-type players and exchange May's contract for Vaughn and Udoka's expiring deals.

Sean Williams: Rod Thorn is notorious for driving a hard bargain, but Williams is a sunk cost. He doesn't have a role in New Jersey, and it's hard to imagine San Antonio taking back his brand of citizenship and b-ball IQ. Still, it might be worth the risk of Vaughn and a 2nd round pick. The Spurs have such good culture, they could probably withstand the experiment, and the one thing he does well--block shots--is an area of need. Any reluctance shown by NJ and San Antonio might be outmatched by Williams--he's already pining for playing time and the Spurs would be certain to send him to Austin for the remainder of the season.

Kyrylo Fesenko: If Utah has any need for Ime Udoka, I'd gladly give him up for the right to develop Fesenko. But, alas, they don't. Moving along.

Alexis Ajinca and Adam Morrison: This is a personal favorite of mine because I love Ajinca's game. He's an ideal candidate to spend time in Austin and contribute to the Spurs and year or two from now. And with Parker and Mahinmi already on roster, you have to like the French connection. From those standpoints, this would be a coup.

Truthfully, I can't see the Spurs taking back Adam Morrison's contract. He's not a very good basketball player. In fact, he stinks. The Bobcats will have to add a sweetener like Ajinca to move him. The Spurs would have to give a combination of Kurt Thomas, whom Brown would like, and Blake Ahearn to make it work.

Nicolas Batum: Batum is starting in Portland, so this isn't going to happen. I'm adding him to the list for the wholesome quality of setting things right---Udoka is a Portland native that played his best basketball as a Trailblazer. Batum is supposed to be a Spur. I'm only doing my part to bring balance to the universe.

Andrea Bargnani: His skill set and size intrigue me, but he can't defend a fold out chair. Nevertheless, if the Spurs were confident Mahinmi will contribute this season, they could take a chance on Bargnani for Thomas, Udoka, and the Spurs' Golden State pick. The Raptors would likely balk, but Thomas and Udoka are two players that would help their playoff push.

Tyrus Thomas: Thomas is the square peg to Chicago's round hole. In some ways, he's the player that makes "ridiculous upside" something of a joke. John Paxson surely wants to recoup more than scraps from this high draft pick, but it's going to be difficult to get back more than 50 cents on the dollar. Thomas could blossom with a change of scenery and finally realize his potential. The Spurs should throw a penny in a well and hope that Kurt Thomas, a future first and Golden State's 2009 second could get it done.

There are other players--Dorrell Wright and Martell Webster--that might be available, but I simply don't see any scenarios where the teams involved could/would get a deal done. Do you have any ideas?

Countdown to 2010: Day 566

2008-12-12T02:01:00.000-08:00

Over the last several weeks a handful of our posts have been tagged Countdown to 2010. You can expect this trend to continue, along with a plentiful amount of fan-crazed present moment scrutinizing. The Spurs are one of a dozen or so teams in the league that have managed their cap with a clear view toward the 2010 free agent season. You can bet that much of their inter-office personnel discussions include some thought toward how such and such players skills and contract would fit into the 2010 puzzle. Some fans are annoyed at the amount of press the 2010 free agent season is already receiving, but their cries of annoyance ring hollow against the facts: several teams are in full-on positioning mode. Smart cap-management is the sport within the sport of professional basketball.

In the space below, I've adapted the Spurs salary chart from shamsports.com. (Not familiar with Sham? If you're into intelligent basketball coverage from a British bloke with a potty mouth and wry sense of humor, he's your chap.) As you'll see, there are a number of 2010 conversation starters in the table. As things progress, we'll deal with many of them in a piecemeal fashion.

Player	08/9	09/10	10/11	11/12	12/13
Tim Duncan	$20,598,704	$22,183,220	$18,700,000	$21,300,000	N/A
Tony Parker	$11,550,000	$12,600,000	$13,650,000	N/A	N/A
ManuGinobili	$9,905,248	$10,728,130	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kurt Thomas	$4,200,000	$3,800,000	N/A	N/A	N/A
Bruce Bowen	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	N/A	N/A	N/A
FabricioOberto	$3,600,000	$3,800,000	N/A	N/A	N/A
Roger Mason	$3,500,000	$3,780,000	N/A	N/A	N/A
Matt Bonner	$2,978,000	$3,256,500	N/A	N/A	N/A
Michael Finley	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jacque Vaughn	$1,262,275	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ime Udoka	$1,080,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
George Hill	$1,006,200	$1,081,680	$771,440	$1,390,906	$2,052,978
Ian Mahinmi	$841,000	$899,700	$1,623,959	$2,419,698	N/A
DesmonFarmer	$797,581	$855,189	N/A	N/A	N/A
AnthonyTolliver	$711,517	$825,497	N/A	N/A	N/A
SalimStoudamire	$200,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Darryl Watkins	$20,000	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Blue - team option; Green - player option; Red - Qualifying offer; Grey - non-guaranteed; Mauve - Early termination

Since this chart was last updated, the Spurs signed Blake Ahearn to a 2 year non-guaranteed contract. According to ESPN, the first year of the contract is worth $631,995, which should put the second year of the deal at approximately $700,000. All together:

	2008/9	2009/10	2010/11	2011/12

Salary	$69, 382, 520	$71, 009, 916	$34, 745, 399	$22, 690, 906

...w/o Options	$69, 382, 520	$68, 509, 916	$32, 350, 000	$21, 300, 000

Looking at the chart, here are some of the story lines that jump out at me:

2009

Will Finley pick up his option?
How much of Oberto's contract is guaranteed?
Would Ime Udoka be agreeable to a higher-than-market-value 1 year contract instead of a multi-year deal? Would the Spurs do this for his Bird Rights?
If the Spurs extend Ginobili, are they kissing this 2010 business good-bye?
How much exception money should the Spurs spend, and on whom?

2010

Ginobili's market value in 2010? Fantastic player, but old, injury-prone and plays a relatively low amount of minutes for a big dollar guy? In short, what's the value of his Manu-ness?
Is it possible for the Spurs to re-sign Roger Mason?
Hill will take a pay cut in 2010, making him one of the best deals in the league.
How will the Spurs fill out the rest of their roster?
The improbable signing of Tiago Splitter to a rookie contract would be an absolute home run, despite the long odds.
Would Peter Holt be willing/able to take a one or two year tax hit in exchange for extending the championship window by several seasons--in other words, would long-term playoff revenue and merchandise sales offset immediate tax losses?

We'll continue to think through the Spurs salary structure as events unfold.

Slam Dunk Ernest

2008-12-11T11:48:00.000-08:00

Slam Dunk Ernest

Director: John R. Cherry III
Year: 1995
Leads: Jim Varney
Classification: Family Sports Comedy
Rating: *

As the 6th of 8 full-blown Ernest movies, and the only one to officially suffer a straight-to-tape release, Slam Dunk Ernest doesn’t have a lot going on for it, lacking either the absurd high-concept premises featured in earlier films or the chirpy idiocy that made Ernest a house hold name. At the outset of this story Ernest, perennial under achiever, has taken up a night shift as a cleaner of corporate buildings. He’s part of a small crew of African Americans working for the Clean Sweep company, a small business dependent apparently on one contract. As the film makes no effort to develop any of these characters, they basically function as a unit “black person” to contrast against Ernest’s mild redneckiness. I say mild because in the age of Larry the Cable Guy caricature, Ernest is basically just a man of below average intellect who has traces of regional dialect.

Anyway, Ernest’s highest ambition is to be allowed by his coworkers to join their recreational league basketball team. And that’s it. Ernest does not fight a troll, replace Santa Claus, battle an evil doppelganger while locked in prison, or even do anything as interesting as go to Africa, as he does in a later film. Slam Dunk runs on empty. The chief novelty in the film comes in the form of a pair of magic kicks, awkwardly delivered in a shamelessly unsupported intervention by the angel Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who hands over the shoes reluctantly, openly questioning the will of God. If a basketball angel questions the Almighty’s judgment about giving magic shoes to Ernest, I think there might be an inherent problem with the movie’s set-up.

Soon after acquiring these magic shoes, Ernest begins tearing up the court, impressing the “black person” and garnering attention from a school-marmy love interest Erma Terradiddle. Soon the Clean Sweep team earns the chance to go head to head with real NBA team the Charlotte Hornets. That’s the big exciting goal of the movie. To do well against the Charlotte Hornets in a novelty exhibition game. With the help of magic shoes. Things go as you would expect, with Ernest racking up hundreds of points single-handedly, getting cocky, and eventually earning the ire of his teammates. Also, some evil corporate guy with a villain mustache tries to tempt him or something, and uses the secretly evil Erma to corrupt him with tangible sexuality. The basketball scenes are unfocused, and mostly in place to show Ernest making incredibly fake looking jumps and then cartoonishly prance in the air before making slam dunks, which, admittedly, is almost funny on occasion, and shows the only spark of the old spastic Ernest we used to love.

That’s the disheartening thing about Slam Dunk Ernest, beyond the limp premise, lack of character differentiation, absence of exciting goals, poor script, and direct-to-video production values, it feels like Jim Varney isn’t all that into being Ernest any more. His undulations are more practiced, his mugging perfunctory, and his freewheeling clumsy positivism dampened. His face is old and tired, his body wiry and thin underneath the denim vest. Sure, he occasionally talks to himself, and we do spend a few minutes in his wacky bachelor pad, but even all of that is toned down, more committed single man’s residence than Peewee’s Playhouse. And there’s no Rimshot in sight. Perhaps the dog quietly died before the movie takes place, taking Ernest’s spark to the Earth in a shallow grave in the back yard.

NOTE: The cover art of the movie claims that “It’s Showtime when Ernest teams up with NBA All-Star Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.” This is patently false. Abdul-Jabbar literally appears out of nowhere, gives Ernest a pair of annoying chipmunky shoes, somewhat against Ernest’s will, and then disappears. I think he shows up again near the end in the bleachers for a shot or two. He’s onscreen for maybe two or three minutes. If that constitutes “teaming up” then I’ve been on a lot of teams. Some of them with women!

The Jason Richardson Suns

2008-12-11T08:45:00.000-08:00

Somewhere deep within the cyber catacombs the Internets are hiding a story about Manu Ginobili being angry with his agent, Herb Rudoy--Rudoy also represents Raja Bell. Ginobili has long thought Bell to be the toughest of defenders, a guy who brings frustrating opposition whenever he's assigned Ginobili's number. So in the summer of 2005, Ginobili had hoped his agent would do him a solid by steering Bell eastward in his journey from Utah. Instead, Bell signed with the Suns, the Spurs testy in-conference rivals. Short of signing with the Mavs, this is the last place Ginobili wanted Raja Bell to land.

It's safe to assume that Manu Ginobili was happy to learn that the Suns have traded Raja Bell and Boris Diaw to the Bobcats. Diaw, along with Bell, was an annoyance to San Antonio. In my estimation, they were Phoenix's best two defenders. Additionally, Diaw created match-up problems for the Spurs, at least under the reign of D'Antoni. In short, one would expect that Ginobili's teammates joined him in a collective sigh of relief. Or not.

Raja Bell is no longer the defensive ace of 2005 vintage. John Hollinger:

Bell had been visibly declining over the past two seasons and is probably better suited to a bench role at this point in his career. That might happen if the Bobcats opt to use D.J. Augustin and Raymond Felton together in the backcourt. Brown will value Bell's feistiness, but his offensive output and lateral movement aren't what they once were.

Making matters worse, Bell had become something of a locker room Bartleby over his disenchantment with the Suns new Spurs-lite approach. And while Boris Diaw still creates problems for the Spurs, his role was marginalized with arrival of Shaquille O'Neal and further diminished with the advent of Terry Porter. In short, these were players who crooned out renditions of Now I Am A Was and I Don't Mind If You Forget Me during late night karaoke.

Jason Richardson is the proverbial shot in the arm that Phoenix needs to play better. He adds athleticism and shooting. He should thrive by hovering around the arc when Shaq and Stoudemire are working the block. I would go on, but by this point most readers have read similar analysis elsewhere. In general, I concur with the consensus: this trade makes the Suns a better team.

Does it improve the Suns' chances against San Antonio? Yes, and for the same reasons stated above. Shaq is playing well for Phoenix and Amare routinely puts up gaudy numbers against the Spurs. It will make the Suns a difficult out. But they're still an out. While this trade is beneficial to Phoenix, it has merely elevated them from a non-playoff team to a probable first round elimination. As Graydon wrote over at Hardwood, these are not your daddy's Suns.

Nevertheless, they'll give their opponent a feisty 6 game series with a little drama. And the Suns faithful is likely to take enough time away from Zapruder film studies to find at least one conspiracy theory to work into their gloomy folklore. Probably something about Bill Ayers, killer bees making their way north from Texas, and Dick Bavetta receiving foul calls from Gregg Popovich's beard. You know, the usual. Oh yes, and someone will bemoan Bowen. Someone is always bemoaning Bowen. "He plays defense," they say. "It's not fair," they say.

For what it's worth, I can see the Spurs and Suns meeting in the first round yet again. As is par for the course, the Spurs are a better team than the pundits planned while New Orleans has a flawed roster and Houston is--surprise, surprise--unhealthy. The Spurs will finish first or second in the SW and earn a playoff seed somewhere between 2-4. If Phoenix makes the playoffs, it will be in the bottom half of the bracket. So maybe we can have one last dance for old times sake.

Update: The Bleacher Report is reporting the expected, Boris Diaw has joined Raja Bell with a sad, nostalgic tune.

Diaw's is quoted as saying "It definitely wasn't as fun," It wasn't as exciting for the fans. It's not as fun for everybody [on the team]. I'll always remember Phoenix with Mike [D'Antoni]. We went from a winning team that was the most exciting team in the league to a half-winning team that wasn't exciting at all."

Somewhere a young sports psychologist has a ready-made thesis. What affects does disemboweling a successful run and gun team with the jagged-edge of a slow, plodding half court blade have on a locker room (or some such title)? More than anything, Steve Kerr has defeated his team before they step onto the court. Dark place, indeed. In an effort to save time prior to February, I'll start the Shaq to Cleveland for Wally's contract and Anderson Varejao trade rumors. The sounds coming from Phoenix's locker room are the moans of discontent. Talk amongst yourselves.

The Notebook: Spurs-Hawks, 12/10/08

2008-12-11T07:19:00.000-08:00

Editorial Note: I apologize "the Notebook" is a tad bit late and a tad bit short today. It's a crazy day in the life of your humble author.

Running on empty, the Spurs managed to pullout a 95-89 win over the Atlanta Hawks last night at the AT&T Center. In my "Match-Up of the Night" piece I had characterized the game as a showdown between Joe Johnson and Manu Ginobili, which turned out to be rather prescient as the two guards led their teams with 29 and 27 points, respectively.

Despite having played 50 minutes on Tuesday in the 2OT game at Dallas, Duncan put together a solid 35 minutes, 19 point, 13 rebound showing. After the Spurs slipped behind in the opening minutes, Duncan orchestrated a run that would recapture the lead for good.

Duncan wasn't the only worn-out veteran who somehow put together a good game: Michael Finley carried his fair share of the load by scoring 15 points on 6-11 shooting. Down the bench, the team played with more consistency than I expected coming of off Tuesday night's game.

Aside from Ginobili's take-charge attitude (which paradoxically included a request for Popovich to bring him off the bench), the most notable storyline from last night's game is the maintained high level of play on the part of Matt Bonner. Bonner hauled in 13 rebounds and racked up 9 points on 4-8 shooting. Night in, night out Bonner has been a reliable contributor on both ends of the floor. His defensive awareness has improved significantly and he is shooting over .500 from both the field in general and beyond the arc. Tim recently discussed Bonner's on-court success this year at length, so suffice it to say the Red Rocket continues to pleasantly surprise.

Match-Up of the Night: Joe Johnson vs. Manu Ginobili

2008-12-10T14:55:00.000-08:00

You may not know this but Joe Johnson is quietly having a terrific year. In fact, Joe Johnson has been quietly having terrific years for years. He is a work horse, having averaged around 40 minutes a game since the 03-04 season. And oh boy, can the man score. If you happen to have missed his 20-point 4th quarter performance in the opening round of the playoffs last year against the Celtics, you need to go watch the highlights. I'll briefly hand it over to Matt Moore, who described Johnson's performance in his own inimitable style:

Scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter is the stuff of legend. To do it in the playoffs, on an 8th seed against a #1 seed, no, THIS #1 seed, is EPIC Nova. And it wasn't a quiet, Tim Duncan Nova, either. It was a stunning combination of floaters, jumpers, and mid-slash faders. All of this punctuated, of course, by the absolutely sick, mind-melting, ankle-breaking, tell-Daddy-you-love-him-now-sit-down-and-let-him-roll-them-bones, crossover into the step back three.

But it's tough to put in performances like that night in, night out. And although Johnson didn't exactly go Nova last night against the Rockets, he did put in a hard fought 41 minutes of basketball.

Only problem is Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker all put in 40+ minutes in our grueling double overtime win against the Mavs (Duncan led the charge with an epic 50 minutes performance). So in some ways, maybe tonight's match-up would be better characterized as everyone vs. their own stamina.

This is going to be a tough game for both teams. Since rocketing out of the gate to a 6-0 start, the Hawks have given up 8 of their last 12. And, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution rightly noted, a road trip to Texas is not an easy place to recapture your stride. Despite the Hawks' inconsistency, this remains a dangerous team. Johnson, Horford and Smith can all explode at any moment. Atlanta has a volatile brand of unbridled athleticism that cannot be equaled by any other squad in the association. But the cornerstone of their success remains Johnson. It is his quiet intensity that gives direction to Smith's unwieldy acrobatics and Horford's hard-charging diesel engine.

I've chosen Ginobili as Johnson's counterpart this evening not only because they are likely to be guarding one another throughout the game but also because this is where we need that little something extra that Manu brings to the table. In last night's win, Ginobili was an afterthought on both ends of the floor, despite seeing 42 minutes of court time. But tonight, he is going to need to be the centerpiece. Parker and Duncan (especially Duncan) are going to be tired. Bowen is going to be tired after his masterful defensive performance last night. Michael Finley played 37 minutes of basketball, so during the time he spends on the court it may seem as if the Spurs are playing with 4 guys. But Manu won't understand what it means to be tired. He will only understand what it means to win.

As I've said time and time again, no Spur is as blindly committed to victory as Manu is. If we are going to stop a younger, more athletic squad hungry for a marquis win, we are going to need the wily Argentinian to step up and lead.

The Notebook: Anatomy of an Overtime

2008-12-10T09:55:00.001-08:00

Last night's double overtime thriller against the Mavericks was a return to form for the Spurs: After two solid losses were dove-tailed by two blowout wins, I forgot that so many of our games this season have come down to the wire. From start to finish the game was exciting, but I want to take this opportunity to stop and think about the specifics of the two overtime periods. This is only our second overtime game of the season, the first of which was a double overtime victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Regulation ended after Parker missed an open 20 footer from the left side, a shot that had been dropping consistently last night. Unless he is going to the hoop, I generally disapprove of Parker taking the final shot: He has never shown me that he can consistently hit jumpers in pressure situations. I overwhelming prefer the ball in the hands of Ginobili, although in Popovich's defense (who clearly called the play for Parker) Ginobili had not been shooting well.

Ginobili would continue to struggle offensively throughout overtime, missing a wide-open three pointer and a reasonably contested but certainly make-able layup that could have ended the game after the first overtime. But it's important to note that Manu, like many of his teammates, stepped up big-time on the defensive side of the ball during overtime. He helped produce turnovers, made quick and precise rotations and for the most part played mistake free basketball on the defensive end.

Ginobili's outside shooting struggles weren't a huge issue anyways because the Spurs did an excellent job working the ball in order to find high percentage shots. Both overtime periods began with quick mid-range shots by Duncan, which not only provided a small lead but also the key psychological edge that comes with being able to score first and seemingly at will.

Duncan would be the centerpiece of our offensive efforts for the remainder of the two overtime periods. Nearly every offensive possession found Duncan with the ball in the post or running the high pick-and-roll with Ginobili or Parker. As I noted in my State of the Season post from December 3rd, our offense doesn't always react to difficulty with such reasoned efficiency:

The problem with our proclivity towards taking the outside shot isn't merely a matter of sheer volume, but a matter of timing: the number of 3-pointers we are taking when down is oppositely indicative of how composed we are. When calm and focused, Ginobili and Parker (and now Hill) will slash with confidence, putting points on the board via layups or the free throw line. Duncan will take hook shots from the block, rather than from a couple of feet out of position. When unnerved or intimidated, we hope that some hot perimeter shooting lets us off the hook.

Last night the Spurs thankfully responded to a pressure-filled situation with the former approach.

That's not to say that members of the Spurs didn't hit big outside shots down the stretch, none more notable than Bowen's three-pointer from the corner with 1:47 left in the second overtime to put the Spurs ahead 127-125. It was Bowen's first make of the night and only his second shot.

Bowen was the quiet hero of overtime. As I just mentioned, he was a tertiary figure on the offensive side of the ball, but his defense was smothering. Over the course of the double overtime, Bowen covered J.J. Barea, Jason Terry, and Dirk Nowitzki, all tough assignments in drastically different ways. In order to really capture how effective Bruce was on the defensive side of the ball, I'll turn it over to L.J. Ellis (known at SpursTalk as timvp):

Bowen led the team with a plus/minus of +21. To fully comprehend how dominant he was defensively, consider that the Spurs gave up 88.8 points per 48 minutes while Bowen was on the court and 117.7 points per 48 minutes when he was on the bench.

Although exciting, the length of last night's game may take its toll on the Spurs as we head back to San Antonio today to take on a young and very athletic Atlanta Hawks squad. The Hawks are on their last leg of the infamous Texas three-step but have yet to come up with a win against Mavericks or the Rockets (who defeated Atlanta 92-84 last night). The game starts at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central.

The Rise of the Red Rocket

2008-12-10T07:35:00.000-08:00

Matt Bonner has come alive for the San Antonio Spurs this season. It's something of a surprise because his first two years in the system represented a struggle, so much so that the Spurs invested themselves in a supposed sweet shooting big in the offseason, Anthony Tolliver. But Bonner's response to his threatened role has become a major Spurs storyline.

He earned starting digs back on December 4th. In last night's thrilling road win in Dallas, Bonner logged 13 points in 30 minutes on perfect shooting (5-5, 3-3). On the season, he is shooting better than 50% from the field and arc. The real revelation is elsewhere, however. While Bonner's rebounding numbers are only up slightly over his career averages, his overall defensive awareness is significantly improved. The combination of offensive efficiency and heady defensive play has transformed Bonner into vital part of the rotation. The net sum is a 6 point spike in his PER from last season's 12.21 to an extremely respectable 18.76. According to Hollinger, Bonner is in the same class as Przybilla, Horford and Okafor.

I didn't think it was possible. And, honestly, I'm still skeptical.

But Coach Popovich has always placed great importance in floor-stretching bigs. Danny Ferry is Robert Horry is Matt Bonner. Even while Matt Bonner overachieves in San Antonio, the Spurs are developing Anthony Tolliver in Austin--Tolliver continues in his role as occasional tease by showing an alarmingly good stat line yesterday morning. A center who can hit from the outside is a roster priority for the front office brass.

Why?

The mainstay explanations are that such bigs create space for Tim Duncan and driving lanes for Parker, Ginobili, and, just recently, George Hill. All true. But Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold (via Jones on the NBA) offers another insight that might clue us into the thinking of Pop and his staff:

The Kings are a bad match up for the Lakers because their centers play a perimeter game that draws Bynum and Gasol out to the three point line and opens up the lane for drives and causes the Lakers defense to break down leading to easy lay ups or open three pointers. Same thing happened against the Pacers and their perimeter oriented bigs and Detroit and Rasheed’s three point shooting from the center position. Teams with quick penetrating guards and perimeter oriented bigs will continue to be a problem for the Lakers as Farmar and Fisher will never be ball stopping guards, so if Bynum and/or Pau are out on the perimeter those guards are going to have a field day and just chop up the Lakers on defense. Against teams like the Pacers and Kings the Lakers are usually able to make up for this match up issue by outscoring them. But when the Lakers shots aren’t falling, you’re going to have issues like this.

The Spurs are quick to respect all their opponents, but I suspect that their respect for the current Laker squad runs a little higher. A great indicator of this respect might be found in the presence of not one but two perimeter centers on tap. It sounds pompous, but in San Antonio everything is geared toward May and June.